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GARCH Improved Nelder Mead MT4

4.33

Introduction to GARCH Indicator

GARCH is the short initial for Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity and it is the volatility prediction model commonly used in financial industry. GARCH model was first appeared in the work by Danish Economist, Tim Peter Bollerslev in 1986. The 2003 Nobel Prize winner, Robert F Engle also added much contribution for the refinement of GARCH model with Tim’s work. Our GARCH INM predictor took the original method of Nelder Mead for GARCH model building. However, the original Nelder Mead’s method occasionally misses convergence and therefore, we improved the original Nelder Mead method by incorporating intermediate ARMA (Autoregressive Moving Average) step before GARCH step.


How to use GARCH Indicator

The whole purpose of GARCH INM predictor is to improve trading performance. Here are few tips.

  1. Our GARCH INM predictor uses point as basic unit. Therefore, the predicted volatility can provide trader scalable idea on future volatility. For example, if GARCH predicted 1120 point (112 pips) for current candle with 95% confidence interval, then you might expect that there is 95% of chance for current market to stay within the 112 pips range.

  2. Detecting anomaly market is also another important function with GARCH. If price range for current market moved outside the predicted volatility (95% confidence interval), then this is the anomaly event with 5% Probability to occur.

  3. Volatility has very close connection to trend. Increasing volatility often tell you start of trend. Filtering out range market using our GARCH INM predictor, you can aim to enter trend market.


Mathematical Description of GARCH

GARCH INM predictor uses standard GARCH (1, 1) model. Its mathematical description is simply relating the variance of time series to previous variance and previous squared return. In mathematical notation, this would be:

Variance at t = omega + alpha * squared return at t-1 + beta * Variance at t-1

Where time series return y at t = mean + error and t = time


Description for input parameters
  • NumberOfObs: Number of observations (data point) to be used for calculation. We recommend minimum 1000 data point.
  • UseHighLow: With use of High-Low mode (true), the range is calculated using high – low. If UseHighLow = false, then close – previous close will be used to calculate range. We recommend using default for your trading.
  • ConfidenceInterval: Confidence Interval for GARCH prediction. We provide 90%, 95% and 99% confidence interval. This confidence interval provides you probabilistic sense for future market range.
  • SafetyFactor: Safety Factor is added for extra safety of trading operation. Safety Factor should be greater than 1. If Safety Factor = 1, then the predicted volatility is equal to original GARCH volatility. If Safety Factor = 1.5, then the predicted volatility will have 50% safe margin over the original GARCH volatility.


Some Trading Ideas with GARCH Nelder Mead


User can adjust Safety Factor from 1.0 to 3.0 to work best for your trading. If GARCH prediction envelope does not touch the price at all, then you can decrease the Safety factor. If GARCH prediction envelope touch the price too often, then you can increase the Safety factor. The main idea is to tune the GARCH prediction to pick extreme bullish or bearish shock in the market. In the shock, use the mean reversion style trading to profit.


Trading Strategy Guide

You can find the detaild trading strategy guide about how to use volatility indicator from the link below. We recommend to read this article before using this volatiltiy indicator for your trading.

Guide for Volatility Indicator


In addition, you can find the trading stratgy for Forex from links below. 

Guide for Volume Spread Analysis

Guide for Harmonic Pattern Detection Indicator

Guide for Momentum Indicator

Guide for Supply Demand Indicator

Guide for Triangle Pattern, Falling Wedge Pattern, Rising Wedge Pattern and Channel

Guide for Elliott Wave Indicator


Important Note

This is the off the shelf product. Therefore, we do not accept any modification or customization request on this product. In addition, we do not provide any code library or any support for your coding for this product.


İncelemeler 4
Jean-Sebastien Laurent
4390
Jean-Sebastien Laurent 2015.08.05 14:47 
 

thank you for this free product with high potential :)

John Winsome Munar
3471
John Winsome Munar 2022.06.20 15:03 
 

Nice work

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Rental/Lifetime Package Options and Privileges' * For optimum results the yearly or lifetime package is suggested due to live training and Discord  channel trading with the  creator! Rent Monthly Six Months   Yearly/Lifetime Weis Wave with Speed with Alert+Speed Index x x x Manual  x x x Quick Set up Video x x x Blog x x x Lifetime Updates x x x Setup and Training Material x x Free Rectangle Break Alert Tool      x Discord Access Channel "The SI traders" x 2-hour live methodology traini
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Bernhard Schweigert
4.92 (309)
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Evgenii Aksenov
4.88 (248)
Trend Line PRO göstergesi bağımsız bir ticaret stratejisidir. Trend değişimini, ticarete giriş noktasını gösterir ve ayrıca Take Profit'in üç seviyesini ve Stop Loss'a karşı korumayı otomatik olarak hesaplar Trend Line PRO, tüm Meta Trader sembolleri için idealdir: para birimleri, metaller, kripto para birimleri, hisse senetleri ve endeksler Gerçek hesapların izlenmesi: burada    gösterge için danışmanlar: burada      Scanner Trend Line Pro'yu   ücretsiz almak için göstergeyi satın aldıktan s
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LEE SAMSON
3.83 (12)
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David Perk
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ICT Template Indicator visualizes and automatically updates all important ICT elements for Scalpers, Day and Swing traders. It allows you too keep your chart clean and bring any elements by just one click to the side buttons. Thanks to mobile notifications on external liquidity levels, you will not miss any opportunity and you don't have to sit behind the screens whole day. Each element has fully customizable colours, width, line types, max timeframe to be shown etc... so you can really tweak y
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Alexey Minkov
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GET 10% OFF NOW! Last 2 copies at current price! An exclusive indicator that utilizes an innovative algorithm to swiftly and accurately determine the market trend. The indicator automatically calculates opening, closing, and profit levels, providing detailed trading statistics. With these features, you can choose the most appropriate trading instrument for the current market conditions. Additionally, you can easily integrate your own arrow indicators into Scalper Inside Pro to quickly evaluate t
Grafiğinizde otomatik olarak destek ve direnç seviyeleri PLUS itici mum boşlukları çizin, böylece fiyatın nereye gidebileceğini ve / veya potansiyel olarak tersine dönebileceğini görebilirsiniz. Bu gösterge, web sitemde (The Market Structure Trader) öğretilen pozisyon ticareti metodolojisinin bir parçası olarak kullanılmak üzere tasarlanmıştır ve hedefleme ve potansiyel girişler için temel bilgileri görüntüler. Göstergede 2 TEMEL özellik ve 4 ek özellik bulunmaktadır: TEMEL ÖZELLİK 1 - Günl
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Oleg Rodin
5 (13)
Piyasanın iki temel ilkesine dayanan bir gün içi stratejisi. Algoritma, ek filtreler kullanarak hacimlerin ve fiyat dalgalarının analizine dayanmaktadır. Göstergenin akıllı algoritması, yalnızca iki piyasa faktörü bir araya geldiğinde bir sinyal verir. Gösterge, daha yüksek zaman çerçevesinin verilerini kullanarak M1 grafiğinde belirli bir aralıktaki dalgaları hesaplar. Ve dalgayı doğrulamak için gösterge, hacme göre analizi kullanır. Bu gösterge hazır bir ticaret sistemidir. Bir tüccarın ihtiya
Italo Levels Indicator
Italo Santana Gomes
5 (7)
BUY INDICATOR AND GET EA FOR FREE AS A BONUS + SOME OTHER GIFTS! ITALO LEVELS INDICATOR  is the best levels indicator ever created, and why is that? Using high volume zones on the market and Fibonacci the Indicator works on all time-frames and assets, indicator built after 7 years of experience on forex and many other markets. You know many levels indicators around the internet are not complete, does not help, and it's difficult to trade, but the   Italo Levels Indicator is different , the Ital
ADR Ters Çevirme Göstergesi, normal ortalama günlük aralığına göre fiyatın şu anda nerede işlem gördüğünü bir bakışta size gösterir. Fiyat, ortalama aralığı ve seçtiğiniz seviyenin üzerindeki seviyeleri aştığında, açılır pencere, e-posta veya push yoluyla anında uyarılar alacaksınız, böylece hızlı bir şekilde geri çekilmelere ve geri dönüşlere atlayabilirsiniz. Gösterge, grafikte ortalama günlük aralık uç noktalarında yatay çizgiler ve ayrıca fiyatları aşan matematiksel olasılıkları olan seviye
First of all Its worth emphasizing here that this Trading Tool is Non-Repainting, Non-Redrawing and Non-Lagging Indicator, Which makes it ideal for professional trading. The Smart Price Action Concepts Indicator is a very powerful tool for both new and experienced traders. It packs more than 20 useful indicators into one, combining advanced trading ideas like Inner Circle Trader Analysis and Smart Money Concepts Trading Strategies. This indicator focuses on Smart Money Concepts, providing i
Up Down V9
Guner Koca
5 (1)
indicator is no repaint trend indicator. when red stars up to line that is probably end of long trades. when blue stars up to line that is probably end of down trades. indicator can use all pairs and lower than weekly charts, to use weekly chart need to at least 500 bars data on back.and lowering processing value 500. it is also suitable for 1m charts. indicator hold long way to go. there is not too many signals.
Yazarın diğer ürünleri
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Introduction This indicator detects volume spread patterns for buy and sell opportunity. The patterns include demand and supply patterns. You might use each pattern for trading. However, these patterns are best used to detect the demand zone (=accumulation area) and supply zone (=distribution area). Demand pattern indicates generally potential buying opportunity. Supply pattern indicates generally potential selling opportunity. These are the underlying patterns rather than direct price action. T
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How to use Pair Trading Station Pair Trading Station is recommended for H1 time frame and you can use it for any currency pairs. To generate buy and sell signal, follow few steps below to apply Pair Trading Station to your MetaTrader terminal. When you load Pair Trading Station on your chart, Pair Trading station will assess available historical data in your MetaTrader platforms for each currency pair. On your chart, the amount of historical data available will be displayed for each currency pai
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Introduction This indicator detects volume spread patterns for buy and sell opportunity. The patterns include demand and supply patterns. You might use each pattern for trading. However, these patterns are best used to detect the demand zone (=accumulation area) and supply zone (=distribution area). Demand pattern indicates generally potential buying opportunity. Supply pattern indicates generally potential selling opportunity. These are the underlying patterns rather than direct price action. T
Introduction to Fractal Moving Average Fractal Moving Average indicator was designed as part of Fractal Pattern Scanner. Inside Fractal Pattern Scanner, Fractal Moving Average Indicator was implemented as multiple of chart objects. With over thousands of chart object, we find that it was not the best and efficient ways to operate the indicator. It was computationally too heavy for the indicator. Hence, we decide to implement the indicator version of Fractal Moving Average indicator to benefit
FREE
Elliott Wave Trend was designed for the scientific wave counting. This tool focuses to get rid of the vagueness of the classic Elliott Wave Counting using the guideline from the template and pattern approach. In doing so, firstly Elliott Wave Trend offers the template for your wave counting. Secondly, it offers Wave Structural Score to assist to identify accurate wave formation. It offers both impulse wave Structural Score and corrective wave Structure Score. Structural Score is the rating to sh
Introduction To Time Box Indicator Time Box Indicator is a must have indicator for any trader. It will display daily, weekly and Monthly box according to your preferences. Yet, you can extend any important price levels in your chart automatically. You can use them as the significant support and resistance levels. It is very simple but effective tool for your trading. Graphic Setting Use White Chart Line Style for Current Open price Daily Setting Update Timeframe for daily box Number of days
FREE
Filtrele:
John Winsome Munar
3471
John Winsome Munar 2022.06.20 15:03 
 

Nice work

malasuerte
27
malasuerte 2021.04.14 09:10 
 

Thank you so mauch releasing

Maksym Mudrakov
29226
Maksym Mudrakov 2016.08.31 07:30 
 

Kullanıcı incelemeye herhangi bir yorum bırakmadı

Jean-Sebastien Laurent
4390
Jean-Sebastien Laurent 2015.08.05 14:47 
 

thank you for this free product with high potential :)

İncelemeye yanıt
Sürüm 3.3 2021.12.05
In version 3.3, we have made some minor improvement over the GARCH indicator. Here is the instruction to use the GARCH indicator.


User can adjust Safety Factor from 1.0 to 3.0 to work best for your trading
If GARCH prediction envelope does not touch the price at all, then you can decrease the Safety factor.
If GARCH prediction envelope touch the price too often, then you can increase the Safety factor.
The main idea is to tune the GARCH prediction to pick extreme bullish or bearish shock in the market
In the shock, use the mean reversion style trading to profit.