• 概述
  • 评论 (4)
  • 评论 (7)
  • 新特性

GARCH Improved Nelder Mead MT4

4.33

Introduction to GARCH Indicator

GARCH is the short initial for Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity and it is the volatility prediction model commonly used in financial industry. GARCH model was first appeared in the work by Danish Economist, Tim Peter Bollerslev in 1986. The 2003 Nobel Prize winner, Robert F Engle also added much contribution for the refinement of GARCH model with Tim’s work. Our GARCH INM predictor took the original method of Nelder Mead for GARCH model building. However, the original Nelder Mead’s method occasionally misses convergence and therefore, we improved the original Nelder Mead method by incorporating intermediate ARMA (Autoregressive Moving Average) step before GARCH step.


How to use GARCH Indicator

The whole purpose of GARCH INM predictor is to improve trading performance. Here are few tips.

  1. Our GARCH INM predictor uses point as basic unit. Therefore, the predicted volatility can provide trader scalable idea on future volatility. For example, if GARCH predicted 1120 point (112 pips) for current candle with 95% confidence interval, then you might expect that there is 95% of chance for current market to stay within the 112 pips range.

  2. Detecting anomaly market is also another important function with GARCH. If price range for current market moved outside the predicted volatility (95% confidence interval), then this is the anomaly event with 5% Probability to occur.

  3. Volatility has very close connection to trend. Increasing volatility often tell you start of trend. Filtering out range market using our GARCH INM predictor, you can aim to enter trend market.


Mathematical Description of GARCH

GARCH INM predictor uses standard GARCH (1, 1) model. Its mathematical description is simply relating the variance of time series to previous variance and previous squared return. In mathematical notation, this would be:

Variance at t = omega + alpha * squared return at t-1 + beta * Variance at t-1

Where time series return y at t = mean + error and t = time


Description for input parameters
  • NumberOfObs: Number of observations (data point) to be used for calculation. We recommend minimum 1000 data point.
  • UseHighLow: With use of High-Low mode (true), the range is calculated using high – low. If UseHighLow = false, then close – previous close will be used to calculate range. We recommend using default for your trading.
  • ConfidenceInterval: Confidence Interval for GARCH prediction. We provide 90%, 95% and 99% confidence interval. This confidence interval provides you probabilistic sense for future market range.
  • SafetyFactor: Safety Factor is added for extra safety of trading operation. Safety Factor should be greater than 1. If Safety Factor = 1, then the predicted volatility is equal to original GARCH volatility. If Safety Factor = 1.5, then the predicted volatility will have 50% safe margin over the original GARCH volatility.


Some Trading Ideas with GARCH Nelder Mead


User can adjust Safety Factor from 1.0 to 3.0 to work best for your trading. If GARCH prediction envelope does not touch the price at all, then you can decrease the Safety factor. If GARCH prediction envelope touch the price too often, then you can increase the Safety factor. The main idea is to tune the GARCH prediction to pick extreme bullish or bearish shock in the market. In the shock, use the mean reversion style trading to profit.


Trading Strategy Guide

You can find the detaild trading strategy guide about how to use volatility indicator from the link below. We recommend to read this article before using this volatiltiy indicator for your trading.

Guide for Volatility Indicator


In addition, you can find the trading stratgy for Forex from links below. 

Guide for Volume Spread Analysis

Guide for Harmonic Pattern Detection Indicator

Guide for Momentum Indicator

Guide for Supply Demand Indicator

Guide for Triangle Pattern, Falling Wedge Pattern, Rising Wedge Pattern and Channel

Guide for Elliott Wave Indicator


Important Note

This is the off the shelf product. Therefore, we do not accept any modification or customization request on this product. In addition, we do not provide any code library or any support for your coding for this product.


评论 4
Jean-Sebastien Laurent
4390
Jean-Sebastien Laurent 2015.08.05 14:47 
 

thank you for this free product with high potential :)

John Winsome Munar
3471
John Winsome Munar 2022.06.20 15:03 
 

Nice work

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Issam Kassas
5 (2)
First of all Its worth emphasizing here that this Trading Indicator is   Non-Repainting ,   Non-Redrawing   and   Non-Lagging   Indicator, Which makes it ideal from both manual and robot trading.  The Atomic Analyst  is a PA Price Action Indicator that uses Strength and Momentum of the price to find a better edge in the market. Equipped with Advanced filters which help remove noises and false signals, and Increase Trading Potential. Using Multiple layers of complex Indicators, the Atomic Anal
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Bernhard Schweigert
4.9 (661)
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Roman Podpora
5 (15)
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Bogdan Ion Puscasu
4.96 (25)
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Guner Koca
5 (7)
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Oleg Rodin
4.91 (44)
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Kirill Borovskii
5 (1)
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Oleg Rodin
5 (24)
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LEE SAMSON
4.17 (120)
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Oleg Rodin
5 (26)
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Advanced Supply Demand
Bernhard Schweigert
4.92 (309)
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Trade The Volume Waves Single Member P.C.
4.79 (19)
Rental/Lifetime Package Options and Privileges' * For optimum results the yearly or lifetime package is suggested due to live training and Discord  channel trading with the  creator! Rent Monthly Six Months   Yearly/Lifetime Weis Wave with Speed with Alert+Speed Index x x x Manual  x x x Quick Set up Video x x x Blog x x x Lifetime Updates x x x Setup and Training Material x x Free Rectangle Break Alert Tool      x Discord Access Channel "The SI traders" x 2-hour live methodology traini
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Daniel Stein
5 (7)
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LEE SAMSON
4.21 (14)
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Daniel Stein
5 (5)
IX Power 终于将 FX Power 的无与伦比的精确性带到了非外汇交易符号中。 它能准确判断您喜爱的指数、股票、商品、ETF 甚至加密货币的短期、中期和长期趋势强度。 您可以 分析 终端提供的 一切 。试试吧,体验一下您在交易时如何把握 时机 。 IX Power 主要功能 100% 精确的非重绘计算结果 - 适用于您终端中的所有交易符号 下拉式选择预配置以及可单独配置的强度分析周期 通过电子邮件、消息和手机通知的无数种通知选项 可访问的 EA 请求缓冲区 可自定义计算限制,以获得更好的性能 为希望查看更多信息的用户提供特殊的多实例设置 无尽的图形设置,让您在每个图表中都能找到最喜欢的颜色 采用 Windows 11 和 macOS 风格的圆角新面板设计 神奇的移动指标面板,可在子窗口和主图表之间无缝移动 适用于高分辨率 QHD、UHD 和 4K 显示器,并针对平板电脑和触摸屏进行了优化 IX Power 参数 最重要的参数不言自明,但我们很快会在另一篇文章中为您提供所有 IX Power 参数的完整说明。 使用别名 "参数可为技术交易
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Italo Santana Gomes
5 (7)
BUY INDICATOR AND GET EA FOR FREE AS A BONUS + SOME OTHER GIFTS! ITALO LEVELS INDICATOR  is the best levels indicator ever created, and why is that? Using high volume zones on the market and Fibonacci the Indicator works on all time-frames and assets, indicator built after 7 years of experience on forex and many other markets. You know many levels indicators around the internet are not complete, does not help, and it's difficult to trade, but the   Italo Levels Indicator is different , the Ital
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David Perk
4.85 (46)
ICT Template Indicator visualizes and automatically updates all important ICT elements for Scalpers, Day and Swing traders. It allows you too keep your chart clean and bring any elements by just one click to the side buttons. Thanks to mobile notifications on external liquidity levels, you will not miss any opportunity and you don't have to sit behind the screens whole day. Each element has fully customizable colours, width, line types, max timeframe to be shown etc... so you can really tweak y
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Kirill Borovskii
The indicator is designed to work on any trading platform. The program is based on proprietary algorithms and W.D.Ganna's mathematics, allowing you to calculate target levels of price movement based on three points with the highest degree of certainty. It is a great tool for stock trading. The indicator has three buttons: NEW - call up a triangle for calculation. DEL - delete the selected triangle. DELS - completely remove all constructions. The probability of achieving the goals is more than 80
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Hispraise Chinedum Abraham
4.68 (25)
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Evgenii Aksenov
4.88 (248)
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Scalper Inside PRO
Alexey Minkov
4.74 (54)
GET 10% OFF NOW! Last 2 copies at current price! An exclusive indicator that utilizes an innovative algorithm to swiftly and accurately determine the market trend. The indicator automatically calculates opening, closing, and profit levels, providing detailed trading statistics. With these features, you can choose the most appropriate trading instrument for the current market conditions. Additionally, you can easily integrate your own arrow indicators into Scalper Inside Pro to quickly evaluate t
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Oleg Rodin
5 (13)
M1 Arrow - 基于市场的两个基本原则的盘中策略。 该算法基于使用附加过滤器对交易量和价格波动的分析。该指标的智能算法仅在两个市场因素合二为一时才会发出信号。该指标使用较高时间框架的数据计算 M1 图表上某个范围的波浪。为了确认波浪,该指标使用了成交量分析。 从理论上讲,该指标可以与其他时间框架一起使用,但您需要考虑到该指标最初是为在 M1 上交易而开发的这一事实。 该指标是一个现成的交易系统。交易者所需要的只是跟随信号。此外,该指标可以成为您自己的交易系统的基础。交易仅在分钟图表上进行。 尽管指标使用 MTF 原理,但指标算法尽可能稳定。 购买后,一定要写信给我!我将与您分享我的交易设置和建议!祝您交易成功!感谢您的关注!
First of all Its worth emphasizing here that this Trading Tool is Non-Repainting Non-Redrawing and Non-Lagging Indicator Which makes it ideal for professional trading . The Smart Price Action Concepts Indicator is a very powerful tool for both new and experienced traders . It packs more than 20 useful indicators into one combining advanced trading ideas like Inner Circle Trader Analysis and Smart Money Concepts Trading Strategies . This indicator focuses on Smart Money Concepts providing in
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How to use Pair Trading Station Pair Trading Station is recommended for H1 time frame and you can use it for any currency pairs. To generate buy and sell signal, follow few steps below to apply Pair Trading Station to your MetaTrader terminal. When you load Pair Trading Station on your chart, Pair Trading station will assess available historical data in your MetaTrader platforms for each currency pair. On your chart, the amount of historical data available will be displayed for each currency pai
Introduction Excessive Momentum Indicator is the momentum indicator to measure the excessive momentum directly from raw price series. Hence, this is an extended price action and pattern trading. Excessive Momentum Indicator was originally developed by Young Ho Seo. This indicator demonstrates the concept of Equilibrium Fractal Wave and Practical Application at the same time. Excessive Momentum detects the market anomaly. Excessive momentum will give us a lot of clue about potential reversal and
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Young Ho Seo
4.47 (19)
Introduction Harmonic Patterns are best used to predict potential turning point. Traditionally, Harmonic Pattern was identified manually connecting peaks and troughs points in the chart. Manual harmonic pattern detection is painfully tedious and not suitable for everyone. You are often exposed under subjective pattern identification with manual pattern detection. To avoid these limitations, Harmonic Pattern Plus was designed to automate your harmonic pattern detection process. The functionality
Introduction to Fractal Pattern Scanner Fractal Indicator refers to the technical indicator that makes use of the fractal geometry found in the financial market. Fractal Pattern Scanner is the advanced Fractal Indicator that brings the latest trading technology after the extensive research and development work in the fractal geometry in the financial market. The most important feature in Fractal Pattern Scanner is the ability to measure the turning point probability as well as the trend probabi
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Young Ho Seo
4 (3)
Elliott Wave Trend was designed for the scientific wave counting. This tool focuses to get rid of the vagueness of the classic Elliott Wave Counting using the guideline from the template and pattern approach. In doing so, firstly Elliott Wave Trend offers the template for your wave counting. Secondly, it offers Wave Structural Score to assist to identify accurate wave formation. It offers both impulse wave Structural Score and corrective wave Structure Score. Structural Score is the rating to sh
Introduction to X3 Chart Pattern Scanner X3 Cherart Pattern Scanner is the non-repainting and non-lagging indicator detecting X3 chart patterns including Harmonic pattern, Elliott Wave pattern, X3 patterns, and Japanese Candlestick patterns. Historical patterns match with signal patterns. Hence, you can readily develop the solid trading strategy in your chart. More importantly, this superb pattern scanner can detect the optimal pattern of its kind. In addition, you can switch on and off individu
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Introduction to Fibonacci Volatility Indicator Volatility indicator can help you to detect any statistical advantage for your trading. Especially, if you are trading with Price Action and Price Patterns, then we recommend to use the Volatility indicator together with your strategy. Especically, Fibonacci Volatility indicator combines the market volatiltiy with Fibonacci Analysis to provide you more advanced volatiltiy indicator. Main Features Fibonacci Volatility in Z score Configuration Mode Fi
Introduction to Harmonic Pattern Scenario Planner The present state of Forex market can go through many different possible price paths to reach its future destination. Future is dynamic. Therefore, planning your trade with possible future scenario is an important step for your success. To meet such a powerful concept, we introduce the Harmonic Pattern Scenario Planner, the first predictive Harmonic Pattern Tool in the world among its kind. Main Features Predicting future patterns for scenari
Mean Reversion Supply Demand Indicator Mean Reversion Supply Demand is the indicator to detect the important supply demand zone in your chart. The concept of supply demand trading relies on the quantity mismatching between buying and selling volumes in the financial market. Typically, supply demand zone serves to predict the turning point. The wave pattern, for any supply demand zone to work as an successful trade, looks like the price must touch the base zone, move away and then return to zone
Introduction to Sideways Market Analyzer Notable period of Low volatility and non-trending movements in the financial market is considered as Sideways Market. Sooner or later, the low volatility will increase and the price will pick up a trend after Sideways Market. In terms of trading point of view, Sideways Market can serve as the very good entry timing for traders. Sideways Market is also quite often the representation of accumulation of large orders from big investors. Therefore, knowing the
Introduction to EFW Analytics EFW Analytics was designed to accomplish the statement "We trade because there are regularities in the financial market". EFW Analytics is a set of tools designed to maximize your trading performance by capturing the repeating fractal geometry, known as the fifth regularity in the financial market. The functionality of EFW Analytics consists of three parts. Firstly, Equilibrium Fractal Wave Index is an exploratory tool to support your trading logic to choose which r
Introduction to X3 Chart Pattern Scanner X3 Cherart Pattern Scanner is the non-repainting and non-lagging indicator detecting X3 chart patterns including Harmonic pattern, Elliott Wave pattern, X3 patterns, and Japanese Candlestick patterns. Historical patterns match with signal patterns. Hence, you can readily develop the solid trading strategy in your chart. More importantly, this superb pattern scanner can detect the optimal pattern of its kind. In addition, you can switch on and off individu
Peak Trough Analysis is the great tool to detect peaks and troughs in your chart. Peak Trough Analysis tool can use three different peaks and troughs detection algorithm. The three algorithm include the orignal Fractals Indicator by Bill Williams, the Modified Fractals indicator and ZigZag indicator. You can use this peak and trough analysis tool to detect the price pattern made up from Equilibrium Fractal-Wave process. For further usage, there are good guide line on how to use this peak trough
FREE
Introduction to Fractal Pattern Scanner Fractal Indicator refers to the technical indicator that makes use of the fractal geometry found in the financial market. Fractal Pattern Scanner is the advanced Fractal Indicator that brings the latest trading technology after the extensive research and development work in the fractal geometry in the financial market. The most important feature in Fractal Pattern Scanner is the ability to measure the turning point probability as well as the trend probabil
Introduction This indicator detects volume spread patterns for buy and sell opportunity. The patterns include demand and supply patterns. You might use each pattern for trading. However, these patterns are best used to detect the demand zone (=accumulation area) and supply zone (=distribution area). Demand pattern indicates generally potential buying opportunity. Supply pattern indicates generally potential selling opportunity. These are the underlying patterns rather than direct price action. T
FREE
Introduction This indicator detects volume spread patterns for buy and sell opportunity. The patterns include demand and supply patterns. You might use each pattern for trading. However, these patterns are best used to detect the demand zone (=accumulation area) and supply zone (=distribution area). Demand pattern indicates generally potential buying opportunity. Supply pattern indicates generally potential selling opportunity. These are the underlying patterns rather than direct price action. T
FREE
Peak Trough Analysis is the great tool to detect peaks and troughs in your chart. Peak Trough Analysis tool can use three different peaks and troughs detection algorithm. The three algorithm include the orignal Fractals Indicator by Bill Williams, the Modified Fractals indicator and ZigZag indicator. You can use this peak and trough analysis tool to detect the price pattern made up from Equilibrium Fractal-Wave process. For further usage, there are good guide line on how to use this peak trough
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Introduction Excessive Momentum Indicator is the momentum indicator to measure the excessive momentum directly from raw price series. Hence, this is an extended price action and pattern trading. Excessive Momentum Indicator was originally developed by Young Ho Seo. This indicator demonstrates the concept of Equilibrium Fractal Wave and Practical Application at the same time. Excessive Momentum detects the market anomaly. Excessive momentum will give us a lot of clue about potential reversal and
Introduction to Chart Pattern MT Chart Pattern MT is a chart pattern scanner to detect the triangle pattern, falling wedge pattern, rising wedge pattern, channel pattern and so on. Chart Pattern MT uses highly sophisticated chart pattern detection algorithm. However, we have designed it in the easy to use with intuitive user interface. Chart Pattern MT will show all the patterns in your chart in the most efficient format for your trading. You do not have to do tedious manual pattern detection an
Introduction to Fractal Moving Average Fractal Moving Average indicator was designed as part of Fractal Pattern Scanner. Inside Fractal Pattern Scanner, Fractal Moving Average Indicator was implemented as multiple of chart objects. With over thousands of chart object, we find that it was not the best and efficient ways to operate the indicator. It was computationally too heavy for the indicator. Hence, we decide to implement the indicator version of Fractal Moving Average indicator to benefit ou
FREE
Time Box Indicator MT5
Young Ho Seo
5 (3)
Introduction To Time Box Indicator Time Box Indicator is a must have indicator for any trader. It will display daily, weekly and Monthly box according to your preferences. Yet, you can extend any important price levels in your chart automatically. You can use them as the significant support and resistance levels. It is very simple but effective tool for your trading. Graphic Setting Use White Chart Line Style for Current Open price Daily Setting Update Timeframe for daily box Number of days
FREE
Introduction Auto Chart Alert is a convenient tool to set alert for your trading in your chart. With Auto Chart Alert, you can set the alert line in one click in your desired location in your chart. You can even set alert over the sloped lines in your chart. Auto Chart Alert is a great tool when you have to watch out importnat support and resistance levels for your trading. You can receive the sound alert, email and push notification when the price hit the alert line at you desired location. A
FREE
Price Breakout pattern Scanner is the automatic scanner for traders and investors. It can detect following patterns automatically from your chart. Head and Shoulder - Common tradable pattern. Reverse Head and Shoulder - This pattern is the reverse formation of the Head and Shoulder. Double Top - When the price hits resistance level twice and decline toward the support level, the trader can anticipate sudden bearish breakout through the support level. Double Bottom - The double bottom pattern is
How to use Pair Trading Station Pair Trading Station is recommended for H1 time frame and you can use it for any currency pairs. To generate buy and sell signal, follow few steps below to apply Pair Trading Station to your MetaTrader terminal. When you load Pair Trading Station on your chart, Pair Trading station will assess available historical data in your MetaTrader platforms for each currency pair. On your chart, the amount of historical data available will be displayed for each currency pai
Introduction Auto Chart Alert is a convenient tool to set alert for your trading in your chart. With Auto Chart Alert, you can set the alert line in one click in your desired location in your chart. You can even set alert over the sloped lines in your chart. Auto Chart Alert is a great tool when you have to watch out importnat support and resistance levels for your trading. You can receive the sound alert, email and push notification when the price hit the alert line at you desired location. A
FREE
Introduction to Order Risk Management EA ORM EA is specially designed for fast and accurate market order execution to be used with our Price Action and Econometric Trading strategies listed below. ORM EA is fully automatic and ORM EA is also very easy to use. ORM EA is totally free of charge. You can also use this robust order execution feature of this ORM EA for any other your own trading strategy. Trading Strategy Guide Order Risk Management EA provides the guide for the risk management for
FREE
Introduction This indicator detects volume spread patterns for buy and sell opportunity. The patterns include demand and supply patterns. You might use each pattern for trading. However, these patterns are best used to detect the demand zone (=accumulation area) and supply zone (=distribution area). Demand pattern indicates generally potential buying opportunity. Supply pattern indicates generally potential selling opportunity. These are the underlying patterns rather than direct price action. T
Introduction to GARCH Indicator GARCH is the short initial for Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity and it is the volatility prediction model commonly used in financial industry. GARCH model was first appeared in the work by Danish Economist, Tim Peter Bollerslev in 1986. The 2003 Nobel Prize winner, Robert F Engle also added much contribution for the refinement of GARCH model with Tim’s work. Our GARCH INM predictor took the original method of Nelder Mead for GARCH model bu
FREE
Time Box Indicator MT4
Young Ho Seo
4.67 (3)
Introduction To Time Box Indicator Time Box Indicator is a must have indicator for any trader. It will display daily, weekly and Monthly box according to your preferences. Yet, you can extend any important price levels in your chart automatically. You can use them as the significant support and resistance levels. It is very simple but effective tool for your trading. Graphic Setting Use White Chart Line Style for Current Open price Daily Setting Update Timeframe for daily box Number of days
FREE
筛选:
John Winsome Munar
3471
John Winsome Munar 2022.06.20 15:03 
 

Nice work

malasuerte
27
malasuerte 2021.04.14 09:10 
 

Thank you so mauch releasing

Maksym Mudrakov
29226
Maksym Mudrakov 2016.08.31 07:30 
 

用户没有留下任何评级信息

Jean-Sebastien Laurent
4390
Jean-Sebastien Laurent 2015.08.05 14:47 
 

thank you for this free product with high potential :)

回复评论
版本 3.3 2021.12.05
In version 3.3, we have made some minor improvement over the GARCH indicator. Here is the instruction to use the GARCH indicator.


User can adjust Safety Factor from 1.0 to 3.0 to work best for your trading
If GARCH prediction envelope does not touch the price at all, then you can decrease the Safety factor.
If GARCH prediction envelope touch the price too often, then you can increase the Safety factor.
The main idea is to tune the GARCH prediction to pick extreme bullish or bearish shock in the market
In the shock, use the mean reversion style trading to profit.