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# GARCH Improved Nelder Mead MT4

4.5

Introduction to GARCH Indicator

GARCH is the short initial for Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity and it is the volatility prediction model commonly used in financial industry. GARCH model was first appeared in the work by Danish Economist, Tim Peter Bollerslev in 1986. The 2003 Nobel Prize winner, Robert F Engle also added much contribution for the refinement of GARCH model with Tim’s work. Our GARCH INM predictor took the original method of Nelder Mead for GARCH model building. However, the original Nelder Mead’s method occasionally misses convergence and therefore, we improved the original Nelder Mead method by incorporating intermediate ARMA (Autoregressive Moving Average) step before GARCH step.

How to use GARCH Indicator

The whole purpose of GARCH INM predictor is to improve trading performance. Here are few tips.

1. Our GARCH INM predictor uses point as basic unit. Therefore, the predicted volatility can provide trader scalable idea on future volatility. For example, if GARCH predicted 1120 point (112 pips) for current candle with 95% confidence interval, then you might expect that there is 95% of chance for current market to stay within the 112 pips range.

2. Detecting anomaly market is also another important function with GARCH. If price range for current market moved outside the predicted volatility (95% confidence interval), then this is the anomaly event with 5% Probability to occur.

3. Volatility has very close connection to trend. Increasing volatility often tell you start of trend. Filtering out range market using our GARCH INM predictor, you can aim to enter trend market.

Mathematical Description of GARCH

GARCH INM predictor uses standard GARCH (1, 1) model. Its mathematical description is simply relating the variance of time series to previous variance and previous squared return. In mathematical notation, this would be:

Variance at t = omega + alpha * squared return at t-1 + beta * Variance at t-1

Where time series return y at t = mean + error and t = time

Description for input parameters
• NumberOfObs: Number of observations (data point) to be used for calculation. We recommend minimum 1000 data point.
• UseHighLow: With use of High-Low mode (true), the range is calculated using high – low. If UseHighLow = false, then close – previous close will be used to calculate range. We recommend using default for your trading.
• ConfidenceInterval: Confidence Interval for GARCH prediction. We provide 90%, 95% and 99% confidence interval. This confidence interval provides you probabilistic sense for future market range.
• SafetyFactor: Safety Factor is added for extra safety of trading operation. Safety Factor should be greater than 1. If Safety Factor = 1, then the predicted volatility is equal to original GARCH volatility. If Safety Factor = 1.5, then the predicted volatility will have 50% safe margin over the original GARCH volatility.

User can adjust Safety Factor from 1.0 to 3.0 to work best for your trading. If GARCH prediction envelope does not touch the price at all, then you can decrease the Safety factor. If GARCH prediction envelope touch the price too often, then you can increase the Safety factor. The main idea is to tune the GARCH prediction to pick extreme bullish or bearish shock in the market. In the shock, use the mean reversion style trading to profit.

Guide for Volatility Indicator

Guide for Harmonic Pattern Detection Indicator

Guide for Momentum Indicator

Guide for Supply Demand Indicator

Guide for Triangle Pattern, Falling Wedge Pattern, Rising Wedge Pattern and Channel

Guide for Elliott Wave Indicator

Important Note

This is the off the shelf product. Therefore, we do not accept any modification or customization request on this product. In addition, we do not provide any code library or any support for your coding for this product.

Reviews 5
173
2024.05.31 03:37

Does the description.

4390
2015.08.05 14:47

thank you for this free product with high potential :)

3471
2022.06.20 15:03

Nice work

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MT4 Multi-timeframe Order Blocks detection indicator. Features - Fully customizable on chart control panel, provides complete interaction. - Hide and show control panel wherever you want. - Detect OBs on multiple timeframes. - Select OBs quantity to display. - Different OBs user interface. - Different filters on OBs. - OB proximity alert. - ADR High and Low lines. - Notification service (Screen alerts | Push notifications). Summary Order block is a market behavior that indicates order collection
Bernhard Schweigert
4.91 (494)
CURRENTLY 31% OFF !! Best Solution for any Newbie or Expert Trader! This indicator is a unique, high quality and affordable trading tool because we have incorporated a number of proprietary features and a secret formula. With only ONE chart it gives Alerts for all 28 currency pairs. Imagine how your trading will improve because you are able to pinpoint the exact trigger point of a new trend or scalping opportunity! Built on new underlying algorithms it makes it even easier to identify and confir
4.75 (4)
Trend Trading is an indicator designed to profit as much as possible from trends taking place in the market, by timing pullbacks and breakouts. It finds trading opportunities by analyzing what the price is doing during established trends. [ Installation Guide | Update Guide | Troubleshooting | FAQ | All Products ] Trade financial markets with confidence and efficiency Profit from established trends without getting whipsawed Recognize profitable pullbacks, breakouts and early reversals The ind
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Guner Koca
4.88 (8)
up-down indicator is no repaint and works all pairs and lower than weekly time frames charts. it is suitable also 1 m charts for all pairs. and hold long way to signal. dont gives too many signals. when red histogram cross trigger line that is up signal.and price probably will down when blue histogram cross trigger line that is down signal.and price probably will go up. when the signals not seen press + button on terminal . too see weekly chart because of low data on chart ,it needs to lower p
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173
2024.05.31 03:37

Does the description.

3471
2022.06.20 15:03

Nice work

27
2021.04.14 09:10

Thank you so mauch releasing

29226
2016.08.31 07:30

User didn't leave any comment to the rating

4390
2015.08.05 14:47

thank you for this free product with high potential :)