EdgeProof Monitor Live Strategy Drift Alert
- Utilities
-
Karem Neili
I build professional MT5 tools for traders of indices, gold and FX: Expert Advisors, indicators and utilities focused on risk control, multi-timeframe analysis and prop-firm account protection.
My principles:
• No repainting: signals are based on closed candles only. - Version: 1.0
- Activations: 10
Every strategy stops working one day. The expensive part is finding out three months and many losses too late. EdgeProof Monitor compares the live trades of your strategy with its baseline (the backtest or the trades you trust) and tells you early, with statistics, when the live results are no longer consistent with the edge you tested.
HOW IT WORKS
- The baseline trades are resampled 1,000 times (Monte Carlo) to build the range of results the strategy can normally produce after 10, 50 or 200 trades.
- Your live trades are read from the account history by magic number and drawn inside that cone.
- Five tests give the probability of a live result this bad if the edge were still intact:
1. Cumulative profit compared with the 5-95% cone.
2. Win rate (binomial test).
3. Average trade compared with the baseline average.
4. Longest losing streak.
5. Maximum drawdown.
STATUS
- HEALTHY: live results are consistent with the baseline.
- WATCH: weaker than expected, not yet conclusive (default: probability below 20%).
- DRIFT: unlikely if the edge were intact; time to review, reduce risk or stop the strategy (default: probability below 5%).
- COLLECTING: not enough live trades yet (default: 10).
You get a push notification, e-mail or alert when the status changes.
BASELINE
- Export it in one click with EdgeProof Lab (Export baseline), or
- Use any CSV file with the columns close_time, symbol, type, volume, net, magic in the common Files folder (Terminal\Common\Files).
Live trades are read automatically from the end of the baseline period, or from the date you choose.
HOW TO USE
1. Copy or export the baseline file to Common\Files\EdgeProof\.
2. Attach EdgeProof Monitor to any chart, enter the baseline file name and the magic number of the strategy.
3. Keep the terminal running (a VPS is ideal). The panel updates after every closed trade and every minute.
GOOD TO KNOW
- EdgeProof Monitor never opens, changes or closes trades. It works with any EA or manual strategy, any symbol and any broker.
- More baseline trades give a better cone; 100 or more are recommended.
- The tests measure statistical consistency, not the future. A HEALTHY status is not a guarantee of profit.
- In the Strategy Tester the panel shows a sample strategy whose edge fades over time, so you can watch the status move from HEALTHY to WATCH and DRIFT.
Works best together with EdgeProof Lab (robustness score before going live).
