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Forecast and levels for AUD - page 9

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.25 09:06

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Consumer Price Index and range price movement 

2017-10-25 01:30 GMT | [AUD - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. 

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From official report :

  • "rose 0.6% this quarter, compared with a rise of 0.2% in the June quarter 2017."
  • "rose 1.8% over the twelve months to the September quarter 2017, compared with a rise of 1.9% over the twelve months to the June quarter 2017."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australian CPI news event 


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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

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supply level at audusd

snir5ers, 2017.10.25 10:41

Great fresh supply level to continue the bearish momentum , seems like un filed orders waiting there , 
sell at the red zone in the chart



goodluck


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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.26 10:14

AUD/USD - daily bearish breakdown (based on the article)

Daily price is on bearish breakdown: price was bounced from Senkou Span line to below for the bearish trend toi be resumed and with 0.7690 support level to be broken for the breakdown to be continuing.


  • "AUDUSD: Retail trader data shows 53.7% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.16 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 4.7% lower than yesterday and 4.7% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 12.0% lower than yesterday and 13.0% lower from last week. "
  • "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests AUDUSD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger AUDUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias."

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Chart.
The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:


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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.28 11:37

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)


AUD/USD - "The coming week offers few obvious opportunities for the Aussie to get out of jail. The US Federal Reserve’s November monetary policy meeting will give its dispensation on Thursday and that will of course be the global market highlight. For sure the Australian Dollar remains under a degree of downside pressure but there’s some chance that this is a little overdone relative to its home country’s overall economic performance. This performance is far from shabby even if wages, consumption and inflation are lagging it. While acknowledging that pressure, it might not be too much of a surprise to see the Aussie gain in the coming week."

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Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).


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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.02 06:57

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: International Trade in Goods and Services and range price movement 

2017-11-02 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Trade Balance]

  • past data is 0.87B
  • forecast data is 1.42B
  • actual data is 1.75B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month. 

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From official report :

  • "In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,061m in September 2017, an increase of $6m on the surplus in August 2017."
  • "In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,745m in September 2017, an increase of $872m on the surplus in August 2017."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australian Trade Balance news event 


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The chart was made on M5 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 except the following indicator (free to download):

MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5


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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.17 10:07

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and range price movement 

2017-10-17 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month. 

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From rttnews article :

  • "At the meeting, the bank kept its benchmark lending rate unchanged at the record low 1.50 percent, as expected. The interest rate has been at this level since September 2016. The bank had reduced the rate by 25-basis points each in August and May last year."
  • "Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes news event 


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Chart #1 was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.05 08:58

Weekly AUD/USD Outlook: 2017, November 05 - November 12 (based on the article)

The Australian dollar struggled to recover amid mixed data. The highlight of the upcoming week is undoubtedly the rate decision by the RBA. Will they hint about a rate cut?. Here are the highlights of the week.


  1. MI Inflation Gauge: Monday, 00:00. A return to the previous level of around 0.1% could be seen now.
  2. ANZ Job Advertisements: Monday, 00:30. The Australia and New Zealand Banking Group monitors the number of job ads as another gauge of the labor market. Ads remained unchanged back in September. We now get data for October.
  3. AIG Construction Index: Monday, 22:30. 
  4. Rate decision: Tuesday, 3:30. The Reserve Bank of Australia has a neutral stance regarding rates. However, in a recent speech, we learned that at least one member leans to a rate cut. Since then, inflation figures came out and they were quite poor. Will the RBA open the door to a rate cut? That could be interesting. On the other hand, the recent drop int he value of the Aussie makes life easier for policymakers.
  5. Chinese Trade Balance: Wednesday, 2:00. China is Australia’s No. 1 trade partner. The publication of the trade balance also provides a view into the changes in imports. Chinese imports consist of Australian metal exports. In September, China reported a surplus of 28.5 billion USD.A 39.5 billion surplus is on the cards now.
  6. Home Loans: Thursday, 00:30. The figure for September is expected to be +2.1%.
  7. RBA Monetary Policy Statement: Friday, 00:30. The RBA has another chance to influence the currency late in the week. The quarterly statement may provide insights about inflation and hints towards further moves. In the past, this document certainly had its impact on the A$.

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.09 19:56

AUD/USD - daily ranging bearish; 0.7627 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is below Ichimoku cloud for the ranging within 0.7728 resistance level for the bear market rally to be started and 0.7627 support level for the bearish trend to be resumed.


  • "The Australian Dollar is perched at trend-defining support, with the currency yet to decide on near-term direction against its US counterpart. A series of descending highs and lows argues for a bearish near-term bias but the longer-term view warns that recent losses might have been corrective within a larger advance."
  • "Support is in the 0.7611-25 area (October 27 low, 23.6% Fibonacci expansion), with a daily close below that exposing the 38.2% level at 0.7538 and arguing for a structural tone shift in favor of the downside. Alternatively, a breach of the 23.6% Fib retracement at 0.7743 targets the 38.2% mark at 0.7816."
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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After


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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.10 06:21

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Statement and range price movement 

2017-11-10 00:30 GMT | [AUD - RBA Monetary Policy Statement]

[AUD - RBA Monetary Policy Statement] = It provides valuable insight into the bank's view of economic conditions and inflation - the key factors that will shape the future of monetary policy and influence their interest rate decisions. 

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From theaustralian article :

  • "The Reserve Bank of Australia has flagged a likely increase in near-term volatility for mineral exports and prices because of uncertainty surrounding China's growth outlook and its decision to cut steel production."
  • "In so far as these policies affect the supply side as well as demand side of commodity markets - through their effects on China's domestic production - they create uncertainty in both directions around the trajectory for the terms of trade."

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AUD/USD M1: range price movement by RBA Monetary Policy Statement news event 


==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.15 06:26

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Labour Price Index and range price movement 

2017-11-15 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Wage Price Index]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Wage Price Index] = Change in the price businesses and the government pay for labor, excluding bonuses. 

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From official report :

  • "The trend and seasonally adjusted indexes for Australia both rose 0.5% in the September quarter 2017. This continued the moderate rate of wage growth recorded by the series over the last two years."
  • "The rises in indexes at industry level (in original terms) ranged from 0.2% for Mining to 1.8% for Accommodation and food services."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australian Labour Price Index news event 


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The chart was made on H4 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 4 except the following indicator (free to download):


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