Forecast and levels for AUD - page 2

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.04.22 11:00

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)


AUD/USD - "We will get an official look at Australian consumer prices for the first quarter of this year on Tuesday. They rose at a sluggish 1.5% in the final three months of 2016, but the rate has been increasing for three quarters. If it continues to do so then the current market forecast of ‘no change’ to Australia’s record-low. 1.5% base rate this year may be threatened. That could support the Aussie. However, it will probably take a lot more than one data point to put that old thesis in serious jeopardy. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Phillip Lowe will also give a speech on Tuesday. We can have no idea of what he may say, of course, but a guess that he might mention a stronger Australian Dollar as an undesirable policy headwind would be an educated one."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.04.26 07:16

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Consumer Price Index and range price movement 

2017-04-26 02:30 GMT | [AUD - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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From official report:

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australian Consumer Price Index news event



 

AUDUSD M & W support and resistance


 
 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.04.29 17:24

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)


AUD/USD - "All up then, this week looks like a neutral one for the Australian currency, albeit one within a broader AUD/USD downtrend. For most likely risk events, there’s a countervailing chance of some support from elsewhere, although the hair-trigger geopolitics of the moment could mean that all bets come off at any point."


 

AUDUSD H4 & D1 Channel


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.02 07:40

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Cash Rate and 16 pips range price movement 

2017-05-02 05:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

  • past data is 1.50%
  • forecast data is 1.50%
  • actual data is 1.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries.

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From cnbc article:

  • "The Reserve bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.5 percent as widely expected, but noting the housing market presents challenges to policy."
  • "Prices have been rising briskly in some markets and declining in others. In the eastern capital cities, a considerable additional supply of apartments is scheduled to come on stream over the next couple of years. Rent increases are the slowest for two decades. Growth in housing debt has outpaced the slow growth in household incomes. The recently announced supervisory measures should help address the risks associated with high and rising levels of indebtedness."

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AUD/USD M5: 16 pips range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.04 06:42

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Trade Balance and range price movement 

2017-05-04 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Trade Balance]

  • past data is 3.66B
  • forecast data is 3.33B
  • actual data is 3.11B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month.

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From official report:

  • "In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $3,804m in March 2017, an increase of $265m (7%) on the surplus in February 2017."
  • "In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $3,107m in March 2017, a decrease of $550m (15%) on the surplus in February 2017."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australian Trade Balance news event



 
AUD/USD D1 Channel
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.05 09:27

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Reserve Bank of Australia Statement on Monetary Policy and range price movement 

2017-05-05 02:30 GMT | [AUD - RBA Monetary Policy Statement]

[AUD - RBA Monetary Policy Statement] = It provides valuable insight into the bank's view of economic conditions and inflation - the key factors that will shape the future of monetary policy and influence their interest rate decisions.

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From official report:

  • "The Bank has been expecting for some time that inflation will increase gradually over the period ahead, to be above 2 per cent. Recent data have been consistent with this expectation. Headline inflation in the March quarter was a little above 2 per cent and is now expected to be between 2 and 3 per cent throughout the forecast period. Underlying inflation increased in the March quarter, to around 1¾ per cent. It is expected to increase further, to be around 2 per cent in early 2018. These forecasts are little changed from the previous Statement on Monetary Policy"
  • "The March quarter inflation data were in line with the forecasts in the February Statement. Measures of underlying inflation were steady at around ½ per cent in the quarter, and picked up to 1¾ per cent over the year."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by RBA Monetary Policy Statement news event



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