The past week was driven by US inflation data and the ECB interest rate decision. During the first half of the week, a stronger dollar and rising US Treasury yields increased pressure on the euro, gold, and cryptocurrencies. However, after the ECB raised rates by 0.25% for the first time in three years, market sentiment shifted. The DXY index fell from 100.25 to 99.65, the euro recovered from its weekly lows, and gold posted its strongest daily gain in weeks.
💶 EUR/USD
After falling to 1.1500, EUR/USD recovered following the ECB rate hike and ended the week at 1.1567. In the medium term, the market remains within the sideways range of 1.1400-1.1850. The nearest resistance is located at 1.1580-1.1600, followed by 1.1670-1.1700 and 1.1780-1.1800. Support is located at 1.1500-1.1530, followed by 1.1445 and 1.1390-1.1410. As long as the price remains below 1.1600, the scenario remains neutral-to-bearish. The key event of the coming week will be the Federal Reserve meeting on June 17, which could become the starting point for a new medium-term trend in the US dollar and related assets.
🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
After rebounding from the strong support area of 59,000-60,000, BTC/USD moved higher and spent the entire week unsuccessfully trying to break above the 64,255 resistance level. However, buyers failed to overcome bearish pressure, and on Saturday, June 13, the pair is trading around 63,800. Weak demand for risk assets and continued outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs are still limiting the recovery of the crypto market. The next resistance above 64,255 is located at 66,000-67,400, followed by 72,400-74,200 and 76,000-78,000. Support is located at 60,700-61,200, followed by 59,000-60,000 and 53,000-54,000. As long as BTC/USD remains below 66,000, the scenario remains neutral-to-bearish.
🛢 Brent Oil
Brent ended the week at 86.70 dollars per barrel, after falling to a low near 85.00. Following the break below the 90.00-91.00 area, the market moved into the lower part of its medium-term range, while the fundamental outlook remains closely linked to developments surrounding Iran. The decline in the geopolitical premium continues to weigh on prices, although any new tensions around the Strait of Hormuz could quickly bring volatility back to the market. The nearest resistance is located at 88.50-90.00, followed by 91.00-92.00, 94.00-95.00 and 97.00-98.00. Support is located at 84.20-85.00, followed by 82.00-83.00 and 80.00. As long as Brent remains below 90.00-91.00, the scenario remains neutral-to-bearish.
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold ended the week at 4,218 dollars per ounce, although it briefly fell to 4,024. The main pressure during the first part of the week came from a stronger dollar and rising US Treasury yields. However, from June 11 onward, the decline in the DXY index triggered a sharp recovery in XAU/USD. The nearest resistance is located at 4,250, followed by 4,350, 4,450-4,500 and 4,580-4,600. Support is located at 4,200, followed by 4,100 and 4,000-4,020. As long as the price remains below 4,350, the scenario remains neutral.
📈 Key Events and Baseline Scenarios of the Week
Market attention during the coming week will focus on central bank decisions and inflation data. On June 16, the Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce their interest rate decisions. On June 17, the UK and Eurozone CPI reports, as well as US retail sales data, will be released. The main event of the day will be the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and the subsequent press conference. On June 18, markets will focus on the rate decisions of the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England. June 19 will be a public holiday in the United States.
Baseline scenarios: EUR/USD – neutral-to-bearish below 1.1600. BTC/USD – neutral-to-bearish below 66,000. Brent – neutral-to-bearish below 90.00-91.00. XAU/USD – neutral below 4,350.
