Last week again gave no clear direction, but it confirmed the main July themes: a cautious dollar, sideways EUR/USD, weak bitcoin momentum, strong oil, and gold held between geopolitics and technical resistance. On July 23, the ECB left the rate unchanged but kept the option of further tightening. Now attention moves to the Fed, US and Eurozone GDP, and the PCE inflation indicator. These events may show whether markets stay sideways or get a new impulse.
💶 EUR/USD
The previous EUR/USD scenario was neutral-to-bearish and was fully confirmed. The pair kept the sideways movement that started in late June and ended the week near 1.1370. The high was 1.1450 and the low was 1.1363. The pair again failed to break 1.1470, but support near 1.1360 also held. This shows that the market is not ready either for strong euro growth or for full dollar strength. The nearest resistance is at 1.1390-1.1400, followed by 1.1435 and 1.1465-1.1480, with 1.1500 as the target. Support is at 1.1360-1.1370, followed by 1.1325 and 1.1185-1.1210. As long as the pair is below 1.1480, the baseline scenario remains neutral-to-bearish. The lower it moves, the higher the chance of a bullish correction.
🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
At the start of the week, BTC/USD broke above 65,570 and rose towards 67,000. But buyers’ optimism did not last long: for the third week in a row, the pair finished near 64,000, confirming the sideways scenario. At the same time, the market structure is not fully neutral: during July, local highs and lows have gradually moved higher, so a new attempt to reach 70,000 cannot be ruled out. For this, the price needs to hold above 67,000-67,265. The nearest resistance is 65,570, followed by 67,000-67,265 and 70,000. Support is at 63,700-64,000, followed by 61,255-61,575, 60,300-60,680 and 57,700-59,000. As long as BTC/USD stays below 67,000, the scenario remains sideways with a bearish bias.
🛢 Brent Oil
Brent continued its strong rise. During the week, the price reached 98.65, and since the start of July the increase has already exceeded 40%. The main factor remains tension around Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and supply risks. As long as the market sees a threat of disruptions, the oil risk premium remains. But after such a fast rise, the risk of a sharp correction also increases, especially if there are signs of de-escalation. Strong support is in the 97.00-98.00, 91.00-92.00, 89.00 and 83.00-85.00 zones. Resistance is at 100.00-101.00, 105.00-106.00 and 108.00-109.00. As long as Brent stays above 90.00-91.00, the scenario remains bullish, but volatility may rise sharply.
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)
In July, gold moved into a sideways trend. Growth attempts are still limited by the descending resistance line drawn from the January all-time high of 5,595. The weekly high was 4,166, and the final level was 4,052. Geopolitical risk and expectations of a softer Fed rate path support gold. But a stable dollar and the descending resistance line limit growth potential. Resistance is at 4,100-4,165, followed by 4,200-4,250 and 4,350. Support is at 4,000-4,020, followed by 3,940-3,960 and 3,880. As long as the price is below 4,200, the scenario remains neutral within a wide sideways range.
📈 Key Events and Baseline Scenarios of the Week
The main events are central bank rate decisions and press conferences: July 29 – the Fed, July 30 – the Bank of England, July 31 – the Bank of Japan. Also in focus: July 29 – preliminary Eurozone GDP for Q2; July 30 – US GDP for Q2 and the PCE index, consumer spending inflation; July 31 – Eurozone CPI, inflation.
Baseline scenarios: EUR/USD – neutral-to-bearish below 1.1480. BTC/USD – sideways with a bearish bias below 67,000. Brent – bullish above 90.00-91.00. XAU/USD – neutral in the 3,940-4,200 range.
Disclaimer: These materials are not investment advice or a guide to trading in financial markets. They are provided for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets involves risk and may lead to a complete loss of deposited funds.
