USDCAD Technical Analysis 2016, 25.09 - 02.10: bullish ranging within the levels near bearish reversal area

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.24 12:08

Weekly Outlook: 2016, September 25 - October 02 (based on the article)

The Fed came and went and so did the BOJ, leaving a mixed picture after the high tension. Speeches from Yellen and Draghi among others, US Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods orders and GDP data from the US, UK, and Canada, stand out. These are the highlights on forex calendar.

1. German Ifo Business Climate: Monday, 8:00. Economists’ forecast German business climate will reach 106.3 in September.
2. Mario Draghi speaks: Monday, 14:00. Market volatility is expected. He may provide more details about how QE will evolve, something he did not do in the post-rate decision presser.
3. Stephen Poloz speaks: Monday, 23:10. BOC Governor Stephen Poloz will give a talk in Washington DC.
4. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00. US consumer confidence is expected to reach 98.6 this time.
5. US Durable Goods Orders: Wednesday, 12:30. Durable orders are expected to decline by 1.0% and core orders are predicted to decrease by 0.5% on August.
6. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30. Some analysts claim U.S. crude stockpiles are still too high and prices could come under pressure again.
7. Haruhiko Kuroda speaks: Thursday, 6:35. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will speak in Tokyo. Market volatility is expected.
8. US GDP data: Thursday, 12:30. The final growth rate for the second quarter is expected to be 1.3%.
9. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of new unemployment claims is expected to be 260,000 this week.
10. FED Chair Janet Yellen speaks: Thursday, 20:00. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will give a talk at the Minority Bankers Forum in Kansas City. Market volatility is expected.
11. Canadian GDP data: Friday, 12:30.

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.24 11:24

Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CNH and GOLD (based on the article)

Dollar Index - "Where rate speculation will offer the most proactive market influence, it is important to keep a weathered eye out for those influences that seem inert but can redefine the landscape should they stir. In the list of sidelined themes, risk trends remains a top consideration. The volatility and volume that revived capital markets on Friday the 9th is holding despite the familiar sense of lethargy trying to push back in. At present, any market-wide sentiment shifts immediately ahead would come without clear warning in scheduled events. However, if fear does start to shake loose investors, liquidity is likely to amplify the risk aversion and quickly rally the Dollar on inflows." 

USD/JPY - "In theory the BoJ has committed itself to limitless bond purchases if it is to maintain a specific target on the 10-year JGB yield. In practice, however, the targeted bond was already trading just barely above the bank’s target. Nothing will change absent a material rally in JGB’s, and traders are effectively left with the status quo. Japanese Yen traders are likewise left with an effectively unchanged fundamental outlook, and this in itself favors a continued JPY rally (USD/JPY decline) versus the US Dollar. Only a material break above key range highs would shift our near-term trading bias on the USD/JPY."

GBP/USD - "GBP/USD stands at risk of breaking down from the triangle/wedge formation carried over from the previous month as the pair trades to fresh monthly lows going into the final week of September, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears to be highlighting a similar dynamic as it fails to preserve the bullish formation carried over from the summer months. In turn, a break/close below the Fibonacci overlap around 1.2920 (100% expansion) to 1.2950 (23.6% expansion) may open up the next downside area of interest around 1.2630 (38.2% retracement), but the pound-dollar may continue to consolidate within a wedge/triangle formation should Fed officials fail to prop up interest-rate expectation."

AUD/USD - "The voting pattern at last week’s FOMC meeting seems to nearly assure the former. As for the latter, Yellen’s assertion that things need only remain the same between now and the end of the year to warrant a hike keeps the bar relatively low. On balance, this hints the Aussie may find its way lower anew as the prospect of nearing stimulus withdrawal weighs on risk appetite and drives an adverse shift in yield spreads."

GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer, Chair Janet Yellen, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Kansas City Fed President Esther George and Fed Governor Jerome Powell slated for speeches. Also note we get the third and final revision of 2Q GDP with consensus estimates calling for an uptick in the annualized rate to 1.3% q/q from 1.1% q/q. Stronger US data could weigh on gold prices in the near-term but the technicals suggest that gold is primed for volatility in the days ahead." 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.26 17:07

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CAD: U.S. New Home Sales

2016-09-26 14:00 GMT | [USD - New Home Sales]

• past data is 659K
• forecast data is 598K
• actual data is 609K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - New Home Sales] = Annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month.

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From Market Watch article: New-home sales slip in August but top forecast

• "Sales of newly-constructed homes dropped 7.6% in August but beat forecasts, according to data released Monday."
• "New home sales ran at a 609,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate, the Commerce Department said. That was 20.6% higher compared to a year ago."

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EUR/USD M5: 10 pips range price movement by U.S. New Home Sales news events

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USD/CAD M5: 38 pips range price movement by U.S. New Home Sales news events

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.27 16:35

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CAD: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence

2016-09-27 14:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

• past data is 101.8
• forecast data is 99.0
• actual data is 104.1 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

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EUR/USD M5: 18 pips price movement by The Conference Board Consumer Confidence news events

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USD/CAD M5: 40 pips price movement by The Conference Board Consumer Confidence news events

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.29 15:25

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CAD: U.S. Gross Domestic Product

2016-09-29 12:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

• past data is 1.1%
• forecast data is 1.3%
• actual data is 1.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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EUR/USD M5: 24 pips price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events

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USD/CAD M5: 25 pips range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.30 14:54

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Gross Domestic Product and 68 pips price movement

2016-09-30 12:30 GMT | [CAD - GDP]

• past data is 0.6%
• forecast data is 0.3%
• actual data is 0.5% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

"Real gross domestic product grew 0.5% in July, led by higher output in the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction sector. The rise in July followed a 0.6% increase in June, which had essentially offset an equivalent decline in May."

Real gross domestic product grows in July:

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USD/CAD M5: 68 pips price movement by Canada's Gross Domestic Product news event