GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Current Account and 47 pips price movement
2016-09-30 08:30 GMT | [GBP - Current Account]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
[GBP - Current Account] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods, services,
income flows, and unilateral transfers during the previous quarter.
"The UK’s current account deficit was £28.7 billion in Quarter 2 (April
to June) 2016, up from a revised deficit of £27.0 billion in Quarter 1
(January to March) 2016. The deficit in Quarter 2 2016 equated to 5.9%
of gross domestic product (GDP) at current market prices, up from 5.7%
in Quarter 1 2016."
GBP/USD M5: 47 pips range price movement by U.K. Current Account news event
USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Gross Domestic Product and 68 pips price movement
2016-09-30 12:30 GMT | [CAD - GDP]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)
[CAD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.
"Real gross domestic product grew 0.5% in July, led by higher output in
the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction sector. The rise in
July followed a 0.6% increase in June, which had essentially offset an
equivalent decline in May."
Real gross domestic product grows in July:
USD/CAD M5: 68 pips price movement by Canada's Gross Domestic Product news event
Dollar Index Daily Technicals: ranging within 100-day SMA/200-day SMA for direction; 95.95 is the key resistance for the bullish reversal (based on the article)
Daily price is located below 200 SMA and above 100 SMA for the ranging bearish market condition.
"The clearest section of recent DXY price action is the 3 wave rally from
the May low. That alone suggests that the path of least resistance is
lower. Of course, weakness from the July high isn’t impulsive either
(but could be motive), which leaves the wave picture unclear. Pay
attention to the rising trendline just below price. Weakness below would
be the best signal yet that a breakdown is underway. Downward slope is
defined by the December-January trendline and also serves as the bearish
If the price breaks 95.95 resistance on close daily bar so the bullish reversal will be started.If the price breaks 95.05 support level on close daily bar so the primary bearrish trend will be resumed.If not so the price will be on bearish rangging within the levels.
Weekly Outlook: 2016, October 02 - October 09 (based on the article)
The third quarter ended with mixed moves in currencies. A full buildup to the US Non-Farm Payrolls, a rate decision in Australia and other figures fill the first week of the last quarter. These are the main events on forex calendar.
Fundamental Q4'16 Forecasts for Dollar Index (based on the article)
Dollar Index - "The decline from December 2015 to May 2016
consists of 5 waves. The decline is classified as a diagonal due to
waves 2 and 4 overlapping. The rally from the May low is in 3 waves
(most of wave C is Brexit), which reinforces the idea that the broader
trend is now lower (3 wave movements are considered countertrend). Each
rally since August has failed at or just below the 200 day average,
which is now downward sloping. Trading focus is lower as long as the
index is below the December-January trendline. Expect weakness to
accelerate in the event of a drop below the parallel that extends off of
the March 2015 high (this line was support in August). Strength above
the July high at 97.56 would at least delay the bearish call."
Fundamental Q4'16 Forecasts for EUR/USD (based on the article)
EUR/USD - "Put simply, if there is a seismic shift in
the US political environment, the Fed will be forced to go back to the
drawing board and dramatically alter its growth and inflation forecasts.
Doing so will likely come at the expense of a rate hike this year -
which means one less reason to like the greenback. There are thus two
periods to watch for on the US Dollar side: the run-up to the election
on November 8; then the fallout and lead-in to the December 14 FOMC meeting. Even though EUR/USD is coiling now, there are plenty of reasons to look for increased volatility."
Fundamental Q4'16 Forecasts for GBP/USD (based on the article)
GBP/USD - "The first set of crucial technical levels
carved out through the previous quarter are 1.3500 resistance and 1.2800
support. These boundaries were set early and were not retested through
the subsequent months – in other words the market was contracting.
Dwindling consolidation was the primary feature of the Dollar-based
majors and for the broader financial markets through the inordinately
quiet third quarter. In turn, GBP/USD will likely succumb to changing
winds that force major breakouts and trend development. A break below
1.2800 would likely be met with chop and struggle for progress. In
contrast, an earnest break above 1.3500 will more readily find momentum
towards 1.4750 and perhaps as high as the 1.5000 pre-Brexit spike."
Fundamental Q4'16 Forecasts for USD/JPY (based on the article)
USD/JPY - "Looking at the pair from a daily perspective,
we can see that since the “death cross” of the 50-day simple moving
average below the 200 average, the USD/JPY has been in a clear down
trend, well below the 200 SMA, and every attempt above the 50 SMA was
quickly rejected. In turn, this implies that at the moment there are no
significant bullish signs at the shorter term outlook. For bulls to start making a case for higher
prices, the pair may need to break, and hold above its 50 day SMA, which
also coincides with a descending trend line at this point in time. This
might expose resistance around 105.455 followed by 110.750. If bears manage to crack the 100 level, and
hold price below, they might hit an air pocket (intervention risks
aside) until the 95 level, with the 90 level in focus immediately after."
Fundamental Q4'16 Forecasts for GOLD (based on the article)
GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Gold continues to hold within the confines of
an ascending channel formation off the yearly lows with prices looking
to close the third quarter just above near-term support at 1303. This
level is defined by the 100% extension of the decline off the high, the
May high and basic channel support. A sliding parallel extending off the
yearly high has continued to cap topside advances for now and heading
into the fourth quarter the focus will be on a break of this near-term
range between trendline resistance & 1303."