EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 11.09 - 18.09: ranging above Ichimoku cloud

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.11 19:02

Credit Agricole: Get Ready For Another Volatile Week (based on the article)

• "EUR should remain relatively supported in the aftermath of the September ECB meeting, which highlighted that the Governing Council may find it hard to add further stimulus in response to a persistently challenging economic outlook."
• "The USD-bulls may have to endure another volatile week, with August retail sales and industrial production likely to attract considerable attention. That said, we note that various Fed officials have signalled willingness to proceed with rate normalisation despite disappointing data of late. With the market rate hike expectations relative low at present, we believe that any positive economic surprises should have a disproportionately greater impact on USD."
• "We believe that the Fed is closer to hiking rates than rates markets seem to believe, while both the BoJ and the ECB are struggling to add fresh stimulus."

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EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 11.09 - 18.09: ranging above Ichimoku cloud

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.13 17:00

Daily price is still on bullosh raanging within 1.1126 (former 1.1122) bearish reversal support level and 1.1326 bullish continuation level. Absolute Strength indicator is evaluating the bullish trend to be resumed but 1.1326 resistance level is very unlikely to bebroken for this week for example.

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EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 11.09 - 18.09: ranging above Ichimoku cloud

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.14 19:11

EUR/USD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - ascending triangle to be broken for the bullish trend to be continuing

H4 price is located above SMA with period 100 (100 SMA) and SMA with the period 200 (200 SMA) in the bullish area of the chart: the price was bounced from 1.1210 support level to above for the bullish trend to be resumed. Ascending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to above for the bullish trend to be continuing with 1.1273 resistance level.

• If H4 price breaks 1.1273 resistance level to above on close bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
  
• If the price breaks 1.1210 support so the reversal of the intra-day price movement from the bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
  
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
  

• Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.1210 support level for possible sell trade
• Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.1273 resistance level for possible buy trade
• Trading Summary: bullish
  

SUMMARY : bullish

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.15 15:01

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD: U.S. Retail Sales and U.S. Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

2016-09-15 12:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

• past data is 0.1%
• forecast data is -0.1%
• actual data is -0.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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2016-09-15 12:30 GMT | [USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index]

• past data is 2.0
• forecast data is 1.1
• actual data is 12.8 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in Philadelphia.

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EUR/USD M5: 20 pips price movement by U.S. Retail Sales and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index news events

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USD/CAD M5: 57 pips range price movement by U.S. Retail Sales and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index news events

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AUD/USD M5: 42 pips range price movement by U.S. Retail Sales and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index news events

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.16 14:54

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Consumer Price Index and 40 pips price movement

2016-09-16 12:30 GMT | [USD - CPI]

• past data is 0.0%
• forecast data is 0.1%
• actual data is 0.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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EUR/USD M5: 40 pips price movement by U.S. Consumer Price Index news event

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.17 10:38

Weekly Outlook: 2016, September 18 - September 25 (based on the article)

The US dollar had a positive week, resisting unconvincing data. Now comes the biggest test: the Fed decision. In addition, we have US Building Permits, rate decisions in Japan and in New Zealand, as well as other events. These are the main events for this week.

1. US Building Permits: Tuesday, 12:30. The number of new residential permits is expected to rise to 1.17 million in August.
2. Stephen Poloz speaks: Tuesday, 17:45. BOC Governor Stephen Poloz will speak in Quebec.
3. Japan rate decision: Wednesday.
4. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30.
5. US Fed Decision: Wednesday: statement and projections at 18:00, Yellen’s press conference at 18:30. 
6. NZ rate decision: Wednesday, 21:00. Governor Graeme announced new lending restrictions for property investors to cool the housing market and enable further rate cuts in the coming months.
7. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. Economists expect the number of claims will reach 261,000 this week.

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.17 11:59

Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CNH and GOLD (based on the article)

Dollar Index - "In the event of full-scale risk aversion, the Dollar will not immediately jump to its haven status. Rather, the first phase of sentiment souring would be a diminished economic outlook and the subsequent loss of further yield potential. The more rapidly confidence falls apart, the better for USD as it will revive the absolute safe haven role. Sentiment however does not just hang on the Fed alone. We have seen volatility and volume rise through other contributions this past week. The BoJ’s quickly failing credibility along with the all-out doves could spark fears for the end of a stimulus-supported market boom. Brexit fears stirred this past week could infect deeper financial flaws. Or, the ‘animal spirits’ themselves could rise. Watch sentiment and the Fed through these tenuous times."

GBP/USD - "In turn, GBP/USD may continue to shed the advance from the August low (1.2854), with the exchange rate failing to preserve the monthly opening range, and the pair may ultimately threaten the post ‘Brexit’ wedge/triangle formation in the days ahead should the FOMC meeting boost interest-rate expectations. However, the pair may continue to consolidate within the near-term holding pattern if Fed officials largely endorse a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy and show a greater willingness to further delay the normalization cycle."

AUD/USD - "Although Fed officials have claimed that every policy meeting may produce a rate hike, their clear desire not to trigger market panic suggests that they will not opt to change things without an opportunity to thoroughly explain in detail. This means that after this week’s outing, the next opportunity for stimulus withdrawal comes in December. Between now and then, another opportunity to update traders will come in November, offering the FOMC a chance to up- or down-shift the projected rate hike path and limit surprise risk. Keeping this flexibility will mean that the narrative emerging from the upcoming announcement will need to be cautious but unmistakably hawkish. This bodes ill for risk appetite as well as the Aussie’s yield advantage, threatening to deliver the currency a third consecutive weekly loss."

NZD/USD - "We’re going to hold a neutral forecast on the New Zealand Dollar for the week ahead, with a warning of caution around this upcoming RBNZ meeting as the bank will be making the announcement in what could be extremely volatile market conditions in the wake of FOMC."

USD/CAD - "The heavy economic data points this week will take place on Friday, which will be after the dust settles from the international development such as the Central Bank triple-header on September 21. On Tuesday, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz will be speaking in Quebec City, which will be followed by a press conference. Friday will provide the Canadian Dollar an opportunity to reverse its trend of negative economic surprises with Retail Sales (exp. -0.1 MoM), and the Consumer Price Index (exp. 1.3% YoY.) Because this is the key gauge for inflation in Canada, a disappointment here coupled with positive developments south of the Canadian Border could put further selling pressure on the Loonie."

USD/CNH - "Next week, traders will want to watch two indicators for clues of the lower bound of the USD/CNH: A) The PBOC’s guidance – the last Yuan fix issued by the PBOC before the holiday was 6.6726. The USD/CNH has already traded below this level. Yuan’s reference rate set after the reopen of onshore markets could tell us whether the Central Bank confirms this Yuan strength. B) HIBOR rates: tightened Yuan liquidity will increase the cost of shorting the Yuan and thus could hold the USD/CNH at low levels. The average level of HIBOR O/N in August was 1.41% and the average over the past 12 months was 2.56%. If the HIBOR read on next Monday is still significantly higher than these levels, it may indicate uneased condition in offshore and a stronger Yuan."

GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Gold is eyeing a key near-term support confluence into the close of the week at 1302/04 where the 100% extension of the decline off the early high converges on the 100-day moving average, the monthly low & the May high. The immediate downside bias is at risk while above this level near-term with initial resistance eyed at the monthly low-day close at 1323 backed by 1330."