The past week confirmed most baseline scenarios but changed the oil picture sharply. The dollar found support from cautious demand for safe assets, although weak US inflation data limited its growth: CPI fell by 0.4% m/m, PPI dropped by 0.3%, and retail sales rose by only 0.2%. Because of this, EUR/USD and bitcoin stayed in sideways ranges, while gold held near 4,000. Brent was the main exception: a new escalation around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz lifted the price by 17% and changed the risk balance.
💶 EUR/USD
The previous EUR/USD scenario was neutral-to-bearish below 1.1500, and it was confirmed. The pair ended the week at 1.1437, with a low of 1.1377 and a high of 1.1482. It failed again to break the 1.1470-1.1500 resistance. Weak US inflation limited dollar growth, but the euro did not get its own strong driver: the Eurozone economy is vulnerable to expensive energy, and buyers avoided aggressive positions before the ECB meeting. The nearest resistance is at 1.1470-1.1500, followed by 1.1590-1.1620 and 1.1660-1.1685. Support is at 1.1375-1.1400, followed by 1.1325-1.1350 and 1.1185-1.1210. As long as the pair remains below 1.1500, the baseline scenario is neutral-to-bearish. The ECB meeting on July 23 may set a new direction.
🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
The bitcoin forecast was also correct. BTC/USD kept moving sideways and, on Saturday, July 18, is trading near 64,000, as it was a week earlier. Both the 65,570 resistance and the 61,255 support held. Weak US inflation supported risk assets, but higher geopolitical tension and stable bond yields did not allow bitcoin to move higher. Resistance is at 65,570-67,265, followed by 70,000. Support is at 61,255-61,575, followed by 60,300-60,680 and 57,700-59,000. As long as the price remains below 67,265, the scenario stays sideways with a bearish bias.
🛢 Brent Oil
Brent moved sharply out of its previous neutral scenario. Another escalation around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz lifted the price from 75.25 to 88.25, or by about 17% over the week. The move was driven not by demand, but by fears of supply disruptions: the Strait of Hormuz remains a key route for global oil, while risks for tankers and insurance quickly raise the price premium. Such a fast rise also creates correction risk if the military threat does not increase. Support is at 85.00-86.00, followed by 82.00-82.50, 80.00, 76.40-77.00 and 75.25-72.60. Resistance is at 88.25, followed by 89.65-90.00, 92.00 and 94.60-95.00. As long as Brent stays above 82.00, the scenario remains moderately bullish. The Middle East situation remains the main factor.
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold again failed to break clearly below the 4,000 support and ended the week near 4,018, losing about 2.5%. Soft US CPI and PPI reduced pressure, but the dollar held firm, while part of safe-haven demand moved into oil because of the Middle East risk. Resistance is at 4,100, followed by 4,200-4,250 and 4,350. Support is at 4,000, followed by 3,930-3,960 and 3,880. As long as the price remains below 4,250, the scenario is neutral, but a break below 4,000 would increase bearish risk. A fall towards 3,200-3,450 still looks unlikely.
📈 Key Events and Baseline Scenarios of the Week
July 22 – UK inflation (CPI): important for the pound and the overall view of price pressure in Europe; July 23 – ECB rate decision and management press conference: important for EUR/USD, as the market will receive a signal on future monetary policy; July 24 – preliminary Eurozone and US PMIs, business activity: the data will show how oil and weak demand affect the economy; July 24 – US new home sales: important for assessing the effect of rates on the consumer sector and the dollar.
Baseline scenarios: EUR/USD – neutral-to-bearish below 1.1500. BTC/USD – neutral with a bearish bias below 65,570-67,265. Brent – moderately bullish above 82.00. XAU/USD – neutral in the 4,000-4,250 range.
