Gold’s “Cross” Warning: Is It Too Early to Write Off XAU/USD Below $4,000?
In early June, the daily XAU/USD chart still looked like a market at a decision point. The rising support line, which had supported gold’s growth since August 2025, crossed the falling resistance line from the January peak. Visually, it looked like a “cross” – not a classic technical analysis pattern, but a very clear signal: the previous upward impulse had weakened, and the market had entered a battle between buyers and sellers.
By 30 June, this battle had effectively ended in favour of sellers. Gold is trading near $4,000 per ounce and fell as low as $3,942. What recently looked like a wide range of uncertainty has now turned into a full correction structure. The price moved below 4,350-4,400, then broke 4,200-4,250 and fell below 4,100. This is an important technical shift: the previous support zone is now becoming resistance. ⚖️
The reasons for the pressure are clear. The dollar has strengthened, US bond yields remain high, and expectations of an early Fed rate cut have weakened noticeably. This is an unpleasant combination for gold: the metal does not pay interest, so when real rates are high, part of the capital moves into dollar assets. Another source of pressure is profit-taking after the strong rise in 2025 and early 2026.
From a technical point of view, the near-term picture looks cautious. The main resistance zone is now around 4,100. If gold can return above it, the market may get a chance for a corrective rebound towards 4,200-4,250. A more important area is higher, near 4,350, where the key support used to be. As long as XAU/USD remains below these levels, any rise looks more like a rebound inside a downward structure than the beginning of a new strong upward trend. 📊
The nearest support is in the 3,930-3,960 area. This is where the market is now trying to stabilise after the sell-off. If this zone fails to hold, the next targets will be 3,880 and then the wider 3,710-3,760 area. This scenario cannot be ruled out, especially if US labour market data strengthen expectations of a tight Fed policy or if yields move higher again.
Reuters wrote on 30 June that gold is heading for its biggest quarterly fall since 2013. Market commentators also note a change in sentiment: traders are increasingly selling rebounds instead of buying dips. At the same time, fresh forecasts remain mixed. UBS, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and several well-known influencers still allow for a recovery in gold over the next 6-12 months and a move towards $5,200+, supported by central bank demand, geopolitics, and a possible weakening of the dollar. But for now, these forecasts support the long-term scenario more than they cancel the short-term weakness.
There is also a deeper technical risk. If XAU/USD falls below 3,880, the market may start looking not only at 3,710-3,760, but also at the wide 3,200-3,450 zone. Gold traded there for more than four months, from mid-April to late August 2025. This area was the base before the next upward move, so if a deep correction develops, it may again become an important price magnet.
The conclusion is simple: it is still too early to write off gold completely, but the June “cross” on XAU/USD was not a signal for immediate growth. It was a warning that the market phase was changing. The price has broken important support levels, moved into correction mode, and now needs to prove the strength of buyers again. Until that happens, even strong rebounds should be treated with caution.
