The past week was marked by a weaker US dollar after a weak US labour market report. Nonfarm Payrolls rose by only 57,000, well below expectations, while April and May figures were revised down. This reduced expectations of further US rate increases and allowed the euro, bitcoin and gold to recover from their lows. At the same time, Eurozone inflation slowed to 2.8%, while oil continued to lose its geopolitical premium as the situation around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz stabilised.
💶 EUR/USD
EUR/USD ended the week at 1.1435, up from 1.1385 a week earlier. After falling to 1.1324, the pair managed to return above 1.1400, although it is still too early to speak about a full reversal. The nearest resistance is located at 1.1475-1.1500, followed by 1.1590-1.1620 and 1.1660-1.1685. Support is located at 1.1400-1.1415, followed by 1.1325-1.1350, 1.1185-1.1210, 1.1100 and 1.1065. As long as the price remains below 1.1500, the scenario looks neutral with a moderately bearish bias. A move above this zone could ease pressure on the euro.
🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
On Saturday, July 04, BTC/USD is trading around 62,450 after rebounding from the 57,705 low reached on July 01. The recovery was supported by a weaker dollar and improved risk appetite after weak US data. The nearest resistance is located at 64,255, followed by 65,570 and 67,265. Support is located at 60,300-60,680, followed by 57,700-59,000, 56,000 and 53,000-54,000. As long as BTC/USD remains below 65,570-67,265, the scenario remains neutral.
🛢 Brent Oil
Brent ended the week at 72.15 dollars per barrel, after falling to 70.23 on July 02, its lowest level in more than four months. The price returned to late-February levels, before the active phase of the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran. Oil remains under pressure from weak global demand expectations and a lower geopolitical premium. At the same time, the 70.00-72.00 area is becoming an important battle zone for bulls and bears. Support is located at 70.00-70.30, followed by 69.00 and 66.30-67.00. The nearest resistance is located at 72.55, followed by 73.50, 74.35-74.80, 76.00-76.40, 78.50-79.50 and 80.00-82.00. As long as Brent remains below 76.40, the scenario remains neutral-to-bearish.
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold ended the week at 4,175 dollars per ounce. After falling to 3,959 on June 30, the market turned higher and, as we expected, corrected toward the 4,200 resistance area. A weaker dollar and lower US Treasury yields supported demand for the precious metal. The nearest resistance is located at 4,200-4,250, followed by 4,350 and 4,450-4,500. Support is located at 4,100, followed by 4,000-4,020, 3,930-3,960 and 3,880. As long as the price remains below 4,250, the scenario remains neutral. A move above this area could strengthen the recovery and increase the probability of a breakout above 4,350. A decline toward 3,200-3,450 still looks unlikely.
📈 Key Events and Baseline Scenarios of the Week
On July 06, the final US Services PMI and ISM Services Index will be released. On July 08, the minutes of the June FOMC meeting will be published. On July 09, markets will receive US initial jobless claims and existing home sales data. These figures will help assess whether the June slowdown in employment was a one-off factor or the start of a weaker trend. At the very end of the working week, on July 10, attention should also be paid to Germany’s CPI data, as Germany remains the leading economy of the Eurozone.
Baseline scenarios: EUR/USD – neutral with a bearish bias below 1.1500. BTC/USD – neutral below 65,570-67,265. Brent – neutral-to-bearish below 74.35-74.80. XAU/USD – neutral below 4,250.
