The past week did not give markets a clear direction. The dollar failed to build a full recovery, but its decline after weak Nonfarm Payrolls also stopped: ISM Services stayed in growth territory, while initial jobless claims fell to 215,000. Because of this, EUR/USD failed to hold above 1.1470, bitcoin stayed in a sideways range, and gold did not break the 4,200 resistance. Oil was the main exception: a new escalation between the US and Iran quickly brought the geopolitical premium back to Brent, although part of this rise was later lost.
💶 EUR/USD
The previous EUR/USD scenario was neutral with a bearish bias below 1.1500, and it was confirmed. The pair tried to hold above 1.1470, but buyers did not have a strong reason to continue. US data was mixed: the labour market no longer looks as strong as before, but services are still growing, and jobless claims do not show a sharp deterioration. As a result, EUR/USD ended the week at 1.1414. The nearest resistance is at 1.1470-1.1500, followed by 1.1590-1.1620 and 1.1660-1.1685. Support is at 1.1400-1.1415, followed by 1.1325-1.1350 and 1.1185-1.1210. As long as the pair remains below 1.1500, the baseline scenario stays neutral with a bearish bias.
🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Bitcoin stayed in a narrow 61,255-64,675 range all week and is trading near 64,000 on Saturday, July 11. This means that the previous neutral scenario below 65,570-67,265 also remains valid. A relatively weak dollar gives some support, but there is still not enough new risk demand for an upside breakout. In addition, higher US bond yields limit interest in assets without fixed income. The nearest resistance is at 64,675, followed by 65,570-67,265. Support is at 61,255, followed by 60,300-60,680 and 57,700-59,000. A move above 67,265 would open the way to 70,000, but the baseline scenario remains sideways for now.
🛢 Brent Oil
Brent was the main exception of the week. After the previous neutral-to-bearish scenario below 74.35-74.80, the price rose sharply from 71.00 to the July 08 high of 80.26 dollars per barrel. The reason was a new escalation between the US and Iran, which immediately increased fears around supply, tanker insurance, and risks for the Strait of Hormuz. The price then fell back towards 75.25 by the end of the week, as the market did not see the conflict turn into a full energy shock. Support is at 74.35-74.80, followed by 72.55, 70.00-71.00, 69.00, and 66.30-67.00. Resistance is at 76.40-76.75, 78.50-79.50, and 80.00-82.00. Below 76.40, the scenario is neutral, but without the previous bearish pressure.
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold followed the previous scenario: the 4,200 resistance stopped the rise. After rebounding from this area, the price fell towards the 4,000 support on July 08 and ended Friday near 4,120 dollars per ounce. Pressure came from a stable dollar and higher US bond yields: when yields rise, gold finds it harder to attract buyers. At the same time, geopolitical risk does not allow the price to fall much deeper. Resistance is at 4,200-4,250, followed by 4,350 and 4,450-4,500. Support is at 4,100, followed by 4,000-4,020 and 3,930-3,960. As long as the price remains below 4,250, the scenario stays neutral.
📈 Key Events and Baseline Scenarios of the Week
July 14 – US inflation (CPI): the main test for the dollar and gold; July 15 – US producer prices (PPI) and the Fed Chair’s testimony in the Senate, which may give a signal on future monetary policy; July 16 – US retail sales: important for judging how strong the economy is after the weak jobs report; July 17 – Eurozone inflation (CPI): important for EUR/USD, as it may affect expectations for ECB policy.
Baseline scenarios: EUR/USD – neutral with a bearish bias below 1.1500. BTC/USD – neutral below 65,570-67,265. Brent – neutral below 76.40. XAU/USD – neutral below 4,250.
