EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 04.09 - 11.09: ranging near bearish reversal

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.03 11:55

Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CNH and GOLD (based on the article)

EUR/USD - "It would be highly unlikely to see the European Central Bank make any moves that may prove to be too provocative given that portions of the recently triggered package are still on their way to being filtered through the economy, and, frankly, the ECB may be nearing a dearth of ammunition, at least in the near-term. This may simply be a case where the bank sees the risks of any ‘big actions’ far outweighing the potential pay-offs."

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.03 10:17

Weekly Outlook: 2016, September 04 - September 11 (based from the article)

Kuroda’s speech, Rate decision in Australia, Canada the EU, Employment data in the US and Canada as well as US Crude Oil Inventories. These are the highlights of this week.

1. Haruhiko Kuroda speaks: Monday, 4:30. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will speak in Tokyo. Volatility is expected.
2. Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 4:30. Economists anticipate more easing measures in the coming months with a 68% chance for another cut is December.
3. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, 16:00. The ISM Non-Manufacturing index is expected to reach 55.4 this time.
4. Australian GDP: Wednesday, 1:30.
5. Canadian rate decision: Wednesday, 14:00. Economists do not expect a change in monetary policy anytime soon.
6. EU rate decision: Thursday, 11:45. Analysts expect the ECB will act in the fall or winter to extend its bond-buying stimulus program past its expiry date of March 2017.
7. US Unemployment rate: Thursday, 12:30.
8. US Crude Oil Inventories: Thursday, 15:00. This unexpected trend cast shadow over the oil industry in the coming months.
9. Canadian Employment data: Friday, 12:30.

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Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.05 08:47

The most interesting pair you can make money with - EUR/NZD

EUR/NZD: bearish breakdown. This pair is on bearish market condition condition for the breakdown to be started on open daily bar for now: the price is breaking 1.5218 support level to below for the breakdown to be continuing. Chinkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator is located below the price indicating the bearish trend to be continuing on good breakdown way.

The most likely scenarios for the price movement for the week:
If daily price breaks 1.5218 support level to below on close bar so the daily breakdown will be continuing with 1.5113 bearish target to re-enter, if not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.

There are the following news events which will be affected on EUR/NZD price movement for the coming week:

• 2016-09-05 09:00 GMT | [EUR - Retail Sales]
• 2016-09-06 06:00 GMT | [EUR - German Factory Orders]
• 2016-09-06 09:00 GMT | [EUR - GDP]
• 2016-09-06 14:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI]
• 2016-09-06 22:45 GMT | [NZD - Manufacturing Sales]
• 2016-09-07 06:00 GMT | [EUR - German Industrial Production]
• 2016-09-08 11:45 GMT | [EUR - Minimum Bid Rate]
• 2016-09-08 12:30 GMT | [EUR - ECB Press Conference]
• 2016-09-08 15:00 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]
• 2016-09-09 06:00 GMT | [EUR - German Trade Balance]
• 2016-09-09 11:45 GMT | [USD - FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks]

Resistance	Support
1.5541	1.5218
1.5835	1.5113

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.06 09:00

What’s Wrong With EUR/USD? (adapted from the article)

• H4 price broke 200 SMA to be reversed to the bearish market condition. The price is testing 1.1122 support level for the bearish trend to be continuing.
• "No matter what the economic data is, the EURUSD is having a hard time falling. Actually, it is being bought on each and every dip and people wonder if it isn’t a wise decision to actually buy the pair and hold the position instead of shorting it. The EURUSD outlook looks bearish, though."

• Daily price is located within 100 SMA/200 SMAL the price is testing 200 SMA together with 1.1122 support level to below to be reversed to the primary ebarish market condition.
• "EURUSD Bearish on Bigger Time Frames. The reason why the EURUSD is not falling (yet!) is not that the pair is bullish or something, but because the pattern that broke lower is on a big time frame: the daily chart."

Thus, seems support level at 1.1122 is the key level for the pair to be reversed to the primary bearish trend.

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EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 04.09 - 11.09: ranging near bearish reversal

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.06 14:00

According to the post above - and related to 1.1122 bearish reversal level so this level is valid for Ichimoku daily chart as well:

And this level is very close to Central yearly Pivot on W1 chart (1.1101) - and if the price breaks this Central Pivot at 1.1101 to below on weekly close bar so the global bearish reversal will be started for this pair for whole this/next years for example.

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.06 16:40

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, AUD/USD and USD/CNH: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

2016-09-06 14:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI]

• past data is 55.5
• forecast data is 55.4
• actual data is 51.4 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry.

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EUR/USD M5: 85 pips price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news event

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AUD/USD M5: 52 pips price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news event

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USD/CNH M5: 122 pips price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news event

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.08 11:32

Trading News Events: European Central Bank Minimum Bid Rate (adapted from the article)

• "Even though the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to retain the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) in September, a string of adjustments to the non-standard measures may trigger a near-term selloff in EUR/USD should the central bank take additional steps to support the monetary union."
• "The ECB may fine-tune its asset-purchases and extend the duration of its quantitative easing (QE) program as the Governing Council struggles to achieve its one and only mandate for price stability, but the euro-dollar stands at risk of facing a similar reaction to the March 10 policy meeting should President Mario Draghi and Co. endorse a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy."

Bullish EUR Trade: Governing Council Sticks with Status Quo

• "Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade."
• "Implement same strategy as the bearish euro trade, just in reverse."

Bearish EUR Trade: ECB Adjusts/Extends QE Program

• "Need red, five-minute candle following the policy statement to consider a short EUR/USD trade."
• "If market reaction favors a bearish Euro trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position."
• "Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from cost; need at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
• "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit."

Daily price is located above 200-day SMA and near above 100 SMA in the bullish area of the chart: the price is breaking 1.1270 resistance level on close daily bar for the bullish trend to be continuing with 1.1366 nearest bullish target. RSI indicator is estimating the bullish market condition to be continuing.

• If D1 price breaks 1.1270 resistance level to above on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
  
• If price breaks 1.1122 support on close daily bar to below so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish trend will be started.
  
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

(all images/charts were made using Metatrader 5 software and free indicators from MQL5 CodeBase)

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.08 14:02

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB Minimum Bid Rate and 30 pips range price movement

2016-09-08 11:45 GMT | [EUR - Minimum Bid Rate]

• past data is 0.00%
• forecast data is 0.00%
• actual data is 0.00% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - Minimum Bid Rate] = Interest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system.

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EUR/USD M5: 30 pips range price movement by ECB Minimum Bid Rate news event

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.08 15:00

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and GBP/USD: U.S. Jobless Claims

2016-09-08 12:30 GMT | [USD - Unemployment Claims]

• past data is 263K
• forecast data is 265K
• actual data is 259K according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Unemployment Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

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From CNBC article:

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EUR/USD M5: 41 pips price movement by Jobless Claims news event

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GBP/USD M5: 27 pips range price movement by Jobless Claims news event

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.09 14:10

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks

2016-09-09 11:45 GMT | [USD - FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks]

• past data is n/a
  
• forecast data is n/a
  
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[USD - FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks] = Speech about economic forecasts at the South Shore Chamber breakfast, in Boston.

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Exploring the Economy's Progress and Outlook

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EUR/USD M5: 10 pips price movement by FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks news event

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.10 15:10

Fed Members Set to Speak Monday. Will Their Comments Move the Markets? (based on forbes article)

• "Three Federal Reserve speakers are taking to a dais ahead of the Fed’s blackout period before its next interest-rate decision meeting Sept. 20-21. Given the market reaction to Friday’s Fedspeak, particularly from Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren who turned his typically dovish comments hawkish ahead of the open, it looks to be a big question. His remarks helped pull the markets down like a magnet that, at midday, didn’t appear to be loosening its grip. Even Fed Gov. Daniel Tarullo’s more dovish comments after the open in a CNBC interview didn’t appear to lighten Rosengren’s impact."
• "What appears to be raising the eyebrows of some Fed watchers is the last-minute press release announcing that long-time dove, Fed board member Lael Brainerd, will speak Monday at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Monday, which will also feature talks from Atlanta Bank President Dennis Lockhart and Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari, is the last day of any Fedspeak ahead of its Sept. 20-21 meeting, which will be a do-it-or-don’t day for a step up in interest rates."
• "The talk on Wall Street is that the Fed may be putting her out there to send a message that may or may not clear up the uncertainty that has dogged the markets in recent sessions. Here’s what some analysts, on both sides are saying, according to Barron’s: “As a dovish member, Brainard would carry a lot of credibility delivering a more hawkish message,” commented Peter Hooper, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities. Or, this: “There’s a view that she may be going out to express some comfort with the idea of one rate hike this year,” says Gene Tannuzzo, portfolio manager at Columbia Threadneedle Investments. If either of these statements pan out, the next question is when? September or December?"

The the way, the daily price is appeared to be on ranging above 100-day SMA/200-day SMA levels waiting for the direction of the trend:

if the price breaks 1.1326 resistance together with ascending triangle pattern to above so the primary bullish trend will be resumed with 1.1367 target;
if the price breaks 1.1123 support level to below so the bearish reversal of the daily price movement will be started.

Most likely scenariod for the coming week is the following: the price will be on ranging within 1.11/1.14 levels waiting for the direction of the trend.

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EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 11.09 - 18.09: ranging above Ichimoku cloud

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.11 09:41

Daily price is on ranging market condition located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart within the following support/resistance levels:

• 1.1326 resistance level located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area, and
• 1.1122 support level located inside Ichimoku cloud to be near and above Senkou Span line in the beginning of the bearish trend to be started.

Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the bullish trend to be resumed, and Trend Strength indicator is evaluating the future possible trend as a secondary ranging.

If D1 price breaks 1.1122 support level on close bar so the reversal of the daily price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started with 1.1045 target.
If D1 price breaks 1.1326 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the bullish trend will be resumed with 1.1366 nearest bullish target to re-enter.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

• Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.1326 for possible buy trade
• Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.1122 support level for possible sell trade
  
• Trading Summary: ranging
  

Resistance	Support
1.1326	1.1122
1.1366	1.1045

SUMMARY : bullish

TREND : ranging