Press review - page 430

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EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German Retail Sales and 9 pips range price movement

2016-08-30 08:30 GMT | [EUR - German Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles and gas stations.

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According to provisional results of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), retail turnover in July 2016 in Germany decreased in real terms 1.5% and in nominal terms 1.2% compared with the corresponding month of the previous year. The number of days open for sale was 26 in July 2016 and 27 in July 2015. 

Compared with the previous year, turnover in retail trade was in the first seven months 2016 in real terms 1.7% and in nominal terms 1.9% larger than in in the corresponding period of the previous year.

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EUR/USD M5: 9 pips range price movement by BoE Mortgage Approvals news event


 

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

2016-08-31 12:15 GMT | [USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change] = Estimated change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government.

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EUR/USD M5: 6 pips range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event


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GBP/USD M5: 17 pips range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event


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AUD/USD M5: 12 pips range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event


 

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Retail Sales and 23 pips range price movement

2016-09-01 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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  • "The trend estimate rose 0.1% in July 2016. This follows a rise of 0.1% in June 2016 and a rise of 0.1% in May 2016."
  • "The seasonally adjusted estimate was relatively unchanged (0.0%) in July 2016. This follows a rise of 0.1% in June 2016 and a rise of 0.1% in May 2016."
  • "In trend terms, Australian turnover rose 2.7% in July 2016 compared with July 2015."

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AUD/USD M5: 23 pips range price movement by Australian Retail Sales news event


8501.0 - Retail Trade, Australia, Jul 2016
  • www.abs.gov.au
JULY KEY FIGURES JULY KEY POINTS CURRENT PRICES The trend estimate rose 0.1% in July 2016. This follows a rise of 0.1% in June 2016 and a rise of 0.1% in May 2016. The seasonally adjusted estimate was relatively unchanged (0.0%) in July 2016. This follows a rise of 0.1% in June 2016 and a rise of 0.1% in May 2016. In trend terms...
 

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Manufacturing PMI and 30 pips range price movement

2016-09-01 01:00 GMT | [CNY - Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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USD/CNH M5: 30 pips range price movement by China Manufacturing PMI news event


 

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ISM Manufacturing PMI and 43 pips range price movement

2016-09-01 14:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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EUR/USD M5: 43 pips range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news event


ISM - ISM Report - August 2016 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®
  • www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org
FOR RELEASE: September 1, 2016 August 2016 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® PMI® at 49.4% DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire United States, while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their...
 

Play Oil Game: Infuriating News (based on the article)

Brent Crude oil is on intra-day bearish breakdown by crossing 100 SMA/200 SMA levels to below for the reversal of the price movement to the primary bearish market condition.

  • "Oil markets are still anemic after more than two years of over supply and repressed prices. From $114 per barrel in the summer of 2014, prices are now hovering in the mid $40s range, and have been unable to find a floor, market equilibrium, then trend upward and find a “new normal.” However, in more dour news for oil producers, on Thursday oil prices fell again, to three week lows, the largest drop since January. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices dropped to $43.16, as oil markets likely negated the possibility of an OPEC cut in production from an Algiers meeting later this month and focused on growing U.S. oil inventories."
  • The price was decreased by 7.50% for one week with 45.30 support level to be testing for the intra-day bearish trend to be continuing.


If H4 price breaks 45.30 support level to below so the bearish breakdown will be continuing.
If H4 price breaks 48.01 resistance level to above on close bar so the bullish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the level.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: post-Brexit forecasts (adapted from the article)

The daily price is located below Ichimoku cloud in the primary ebarish area of the chart. The price is testing 1.3317 resistance level to above with the bear market rally for the ranging rally to be started within the primary bearish market condition. Alternative, if the price breaks 1.3058 support level to below so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.

  • "The gap to open trading post-Brexit is thus far of the breakaway variety. The current level (slope line near 1.2800) and/or 1.2500 could inspire a ‘squeeze’ as part of consolidation before another leg lower. 1.2500 relates the 2009-2014 range (127.2% of that range from the 2014 high) and decline from 2007 (decline from 2014 = .618% of 2007-2008 decline)."
  • "1.2800 is still the low and the outside week (last week) suggests that Cable is building a base to work higher from."


The price is unlikely to be dropped to be below 1.2795 in the real post-Brexit situation so the most likely scenario is the following: the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.

 

Trading News Events: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (adapted from dailyfx)

  • "A 180K expansion in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) accompanied by a downtick in the jobless rate may trigger a near-term decline in EUR/USD as the ongoing improvement in the labor market puts increased pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to raise the benchmark interest rate sooner rather than later."
  • "The next interest-rate decision on September 21 may reveal a growing dissent within the FOMC as Chair Janet Yellen argues ‘the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months,’ but a marked slowdown in Average Hourly Earnings may drag on interest-rate expectations as the committee persistently warns ‘most survey-based measures of longer-run inflation expectations were little changed, on balance, while market-based measures of inflation compensation remained low.’"


Bullish USD Trade: NFP Expands 180K or Greater

  • "Need red, five-minute candle following the print to consider a short EUR/USD position."
  • "If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position."
  • "Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
  • "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit."
Bearish USD Trade: U.S. Job/Wage growth Disappoints
  • "Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade."
  • "Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction."


Daily price is located between 100 SMA and 200 SMA for the ranging market condition waiting for the direction for the bullish trend to be resumed or to the bearish reversal to be started within the following key reversal support/resistance levels:

  • 50.0% Fibo resistance level at 1.1244 located above 200 SMA and near-above 100 SMA on the beginning of the bullish trend to be resumed, and
  • 1.1122 support level located near 200 SMA in the beginning of the bearish trend to be started on the chart.

RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bullish market condition.

  • If the price will break 1.1244 resistance level on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
  • If price will break 1.1122 support on close daily bar so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish trend will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
 

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD and NZD/USD: Non-Farm Payrolls

2016-09-02 12:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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"Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 151,000 in August, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in several service-providing industries."

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EUR/USD M5: 91 pips price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news event


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USD/JPY M5: 62 pips price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news event


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AUD/USD M5: 58 pips price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news event


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NZD/USD M5: 65 pips price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news event


 

Weekly Outlook: 2016, September 04 - September 11 (based from the article)

Kuroda’s speech, Rate decision in Australia, Canada the EU, Employment data in the US and Canada as well as US Crude Oil Inventories. These are the highlights of this week.


  1. Haruhiko Kuroda speaks: Monday, 4:30. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will speak in Tokyo. Volatility is expected.
  2. Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 4:30. Economists anticipate more easing measures in the coming months with a 68% chance for another cut is December.
  3. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, 16:00. The ISM Non-Manufacturing index is expected to reach 55.4 this time.
  4. Australian GDP: Wednesday, 1:30.
  5. Canadian rate decision: Wednesday, 14:00. Economists do not expect a change in monetary policy anytime soon.
  6. EU rate decision: Thursday, 11:45. Analysts expect the ECB will act in the fall or winter to extend its bond-buying stimulus program past its expiry date of March 2017.
  7. US Unemployment rate: Thursday, 12:30.
  8. US Crude Oil Inventories: Thursday, 15:00. This unexpected trend cast shadow over the oil industry in the coming months.
  9. Canadian Employment data: Friday, 12:30.
Forex Weekly Outlook September 5-9 | Forex Crunch
Forex Weekly Outlook September 5-9 | Forex Crunch
  • 2016.09.03
  • Anat Dror
  • www.forexcrunch.com
Kuroda’s speech, Rate decision in Australia, Canada the EU, Employment data in the US and Canada as well as US Crude Oil Inventories. These are the highlights of this week. Join us for our weekly outlook as we explore these top events. Last week, U.S. monthly employment figures disappointed as growth slowed more than expected in August...
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