USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Bank of Canada Overnight Rate and 67 pips price movement
2016-09-07 14:00 GMT | [CAD - Overnight Rate]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GAD in our case)
[CAD - Overnight Rate] = Interest rate at which major financial institutions borrow and lend overnight funds between themselves.
The Bank of Canada today announced that it
is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The
Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4
Global growth in the first half of 2016 was slower than the Bank had projected in its July Monetary Policy Report
(MPR), although the Bank continues to expect it to strengthen gradually
in the second half of this year. The US economy was weaker than
expected in the second quarter, notably reflecting a contraction in
business and residential investment. While a healthy labour market and
solid consumption should remain supportive of growth in the rest of the
year, the outlook for business investment has become less certain.
Meanwhile, global financial conditions have become even more
accommodative since July.
While Canada’s economy shrank in the second quarter, the Bank still
projects a substantial rebound in the second half of this year.
Second-quarter GDP was pulled down by the Alberta wildfires in May and
by a drop in exports that was larger and more broad-based than expected.
Exports disappointed even after accounting for weaker business and
residential investment in the United States, adjustments in the resource
sector, and cutbacks in auto production. The economy is expected to
rebound in the third quarter as oil production recovers, rebuilding
commences in Alberta, and consumer spending gets an additional lift from
Canada Child Benefit payments. As federal infrastructure spending
starts to have more impact, growth in the fourth quarter is projected to
remain above potential. While the strength in exports during July was
encouraging, the ground lost over previous months raises the possibility
that the profile for economic activity will be somewhat lower than
anticipated in July.
Inflation is roughly in line with the Bank’s expectations. Total CPI
inflation is below the 2 per cent target, mainly because of the
temporary effects of lower consumer energy prices. Measures of core
inflation remain around 2 per cent, reflecting offsetting effects of
excess capacity and past exchange rate depreciation.
USD/CAD M5: 67 pips price movement by BoC Overnight Rate news event
AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Trade Balance and 37 pips price movement
2016-09-08 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Trade Balance]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
[AUD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month.
AUD/USD M5: 37 pips price movement by Australian Trade Balance news event
Trading News Events: European Central Bank Minimum Bid Rate (adapted from the article)
Bullish EUR Trade: Governing Council Sticks with Status Quo
is located above 200-day SMA and near above 100 SMA in the bullish area
of the chart: the price is breaking 1.1270 resistance level on close
daily bar for the bullish trend to be continuing with 1.1366 nearest
bullish target. RSI
indicator is estimating the bullish market condition to be continuing.
(all images/charts were made using Metatrader 5 software and free indicators from MQL5 CodeBase)
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB Minimum Bid Rate and 30 pips range price movement
2016-09-08 11:45 GMT | [EUR - Minimum Bid Rate]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
[EUR - Minimum Bid Rate] = Interest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system.
At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the
interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates
on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain
unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council
continues to expect the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or
lower levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon
of the net asset purchases.
Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, the Governing
Council confirms that the monthly asset purchases of €80 billion are
intended to run until the end of March 2017, or beyond, if necessary,
and in any case until it sees a sustained adjustment in the path of
inflation consistent with its inflation aim.
EUR/USD M5: 30 pips range price movement by ECB Minimum Bid Rate news event
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and GBP/USD: U.S. Jobless Claims2016-09-08 12:30 GMT | [USD - Unemployment Claims]
if actual < forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Unemployment Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.
From CNBC article:
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits
unexpectedly fell last week, pointing to sustained labor market strength
even as the pace of job growth is slowing.
Initial claims for state
unemployment benefits decreased 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 259,000
for the week ended Sept. 3, the lowest level since mid-July, the Labor
Department said on Thursday. Claims for the prior week were unrevised.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast first-time applications for jobless benefits rising to 265,000 in the latest week.
It was the 79th straight week
that claims remained below the 300,000 threshold, which is associated
with robust labor market conditions. That is the longest stretch since
1970, when the labor market was much smaller.
EUR/USD M5: 41 pips price movement by Jobless Claims news event
GBP/USD M5: 27 pips range price movement by Jobless Claims news event
U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories
news event: intra-day bullish breakout, daily bullish trend to be resumed
2016-09-08 15:00 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]
[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.
commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 14.5M million barrels from the previous
If the price breaks 49.77 resistance on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.If
the price breaks 45.19
support level on close daily bar so the local downtrend as the
secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.If the price breaks 42.59
support level on close daily bar so we may see the reversal of the price movement
from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition.If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.
USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China CPI and 83 pips price movement
2016-09-09 01:30 GMT | [CNY - CPI]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNH in our case)
[CNY - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
USD/CNH M5: 83 pips price movement by China CPI news event
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks2016-09-09 11:45 GMT | [USD - FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks]
[USD - FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks] = Speech about economic forecasts at the South Shore Chamber breakfast, in Boston.
Exploring the Economy's Progress and Outlook
EUR/USD M5: 10 pips price movement by FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks news event
Weekly Outlook: 2016, September 11 - September 18 (based on the article)
US dollar had a rough back-to-school week, but it made a comeback later
on. Inflation data in the UK and the US, GDP data in New Zealand; rate
decisions in the UK and employment data in the UK and Australia stand
out. These are the top events on FX calendar.
Fed Members Set to Speak Monday. Will Their Comments Move the Markets? (based on forbes article)
The the way, the daily price is appeared to be on ranging above 100-day SMA/200-day SMA levels waiting for the direction of the trend:
if the price breaks 1.1326 resistance together with ascending triangle pattern to above so the primary bullish trend will be resumed with 1.1367 target;if the price breaks 1.1123 support level to below so the bearish reversal of the daily price movement will be started.
Most likely scenariod for the coming week is the following: the price will be on ranging within 1.11/1.14 levels waiting for the direction of the trend.