Press review - page 432

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Bank of Canada Overnight Rate and 67 pips price movement

2016-09-07 14:00 GMT | [CAD - Overnight Rate]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GAD in our case)

[CAD - Overnight Rate] = Interest rate at which major financial institutions borrow and lend overnight funds between themselves.

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The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.

Global growth in the first half of 2016 was slower than the Bank had projected in its July Monetary Policy Report (MPR), although the Bank continues to expect it to strengthen gradually in the second half of this year. The US economy was weaker than expected in the second quarter, notably reflecting a contraction in business and residential investment. While a healthy labour market and solid consumption should remain supportive of growth in the rest of the year, the outlook for business investment has become less certain. Meanwhile, global financial conditions have become even more accommodative since July. 

While Canada’s economy shrank in the second quarter, the Bank still projects a substantial rebound in the second half of this year. Second-quarter GDP was pulled down by the Alberta wildfires in May and by a drop in exports that was larger and more broad-based than expected. Exports disappointed even after accounting for weaker business and residential investment in the United States, adjustments in the resource sector, and cutbacks in auto production. The economy is expected to rebound in the third quarter as oil production recovers, rebuilding commences in Alberta, and consumer spending gets an additional lift from Canada Child Benefit payments. As federal infrastructure spending starts to have more impact, growth in the fourth quarter is projected to remain above potential. While the strength in exports during July was encouraging, the ground lost over previous months raises the possibility that the profile for economic activity will be somewhat lower than anticipated in July.  

Inflation is roughly in line with the Bank’s expectations.  Total CPI inflation is below the 2 per cent target, mainly because of the temporary effects of lower consumer energy prices. Measures of core inflation remain around 2 per cent, reflecting offsetting effects of excess capacity and past exchange rate depreciation.

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USD/CAD M5: 67 pips price movement by BoC Overnight Rate news event


Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/2 per cent
Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/2 per cent
  • www.bankofcanada.ca
The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Trade Balance and 37 pips price movement

2016-09-08 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Trade Balance]

  • past data is -3.25B
  • forecast data is -2.70B
  • actual data is -2.41B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month.

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AUD/USD M5: 37 pips price movement by Australian Trade Balance news event


5368.0 - International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia, Jul 2016
  • www.abs.gov.au
JULY KEY FIGURES JULY KEY POINTS BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,485m in July 2016, an increase of $62m (3%) on the deficit in June 2016. In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,410m in July 2016, a decrease of $840m (26%) on...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Trading News Events: European Central Bank Minimum Bid Rate (adapted from the article)

  • "Even though the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to retain the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) in September, a string of adjustments to the non-standard measures may trigger a near-term selloff in EUR/USD should the central bank take additional steps to support the monetary union."
  • "The ECB may fine-tune its asset-purchases and extend the duration of its quantitative easing (QE) program as the Governing Council struggles to achieve its one and only mandate for price stability, but the euro-dollar stands at risk of facing a similar reaction to the March 10 policy meeting should President Mario Draghi and Co. endorse a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy."


Bullish EUR Trade: Governing Council Sticks with Status Quo

  • "Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade."
  • "Implement same strategy as the bearish euro trade, just in reverse."
Bearish EUR Trade: ECB Adjusts/Extends QE Program
  • "Need red, five-minute candle following the policy statement to consider a short EUR/USD trade."
  • "If market reaction favors a bearish Euro trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position."
  • "Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from cost; need at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
  • "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit."


Daily price is located above 200-day SMA and near above 100 SMA in the bullish area of the chart: the price is breaking 1.1270 resistance level on close daily bar for the bullish trend to be continuing with 1.1366 nearest bullish target. RSI indicator is estimating the bullish market condition to be continuing.

  • If D1 price breaks 1.1270 resistance level to above on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If price breaks 1.1122 support on close daily bar to below so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish trend will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

(all images/charts were made using Metatrader 5 software and free indicators from MQL5 CodeBase)

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB Minimum Bid Rate and 30 pips range price movement

2016-09-08 11:45 GMT | [EUR - Minimum Bid Rate]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - Minimum Bid Rate] = Interest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system.

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At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council continues to expect the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases.

Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, the Governing Council confirms that the monthly asset purchases of €80 billion are intended to run until the end of March 2017, or beyond, if necessary, and in any case until it sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim.

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EUR/USD M5: 30 pips range price movement by ECB Minimum Bid Rate news event


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and GBP/USD: U.S. Jobless Claims

2016-09-08 12:30 GMT | [USD - Unemployment Claims]

if actual < forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Unemployment Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

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From CNBC article:

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, pointing to sustained labor market strength even as the pace of job growth is slowing.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 259,000 for the week ended Sept. 3, the lowest level since mid-July, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Claims for the prior week were unrevised.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast first-time applications for jobless benefits rising to 265,000 in the latest week.

It was the 79th straight week that claims remained below the 300,000 threshold, which is associated with robust labor market conditions. That is the longest stretch since 1970, when the labor market was much smaller.

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EUR/USD M5: 41 pips price movement by Jobless Claims news event


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GBP/USD M5: 27 pips range price movement by Jobless Claims news event

News Releases
  • www.dol.gov
In the week ending September 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 259,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 263,000. The 4-week moving average was 261,250, a decrease of 1,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 263,000. NEW ORLEANS – Two Gulf Coast staffing agencies have...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day bullish breakout, daily bullish trend to be resumed

2016-09-08 15:00 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 14.5M million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: bullish breakout. The price was bounced from 100 SMA/200 SMA area to above for the bullish breakout. Price is on testing 49.83 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing.

If the price breaks 49.83 resistance level on close M5 bar so the bullish market condition will be continuing.
If the price breaks 48.57 support level to below on close M5 bar so the reversal of the intra-day price movement from the bullish to the bearish market condition will be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.


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Crude Oil Daily: key resistence level to be broken for the daily bullish to be resumed. The price is above 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area in the bullish are of the chart: price is testing 49.77 resistance level for the bullish trend to be resumed with 51.18 asa a nearest daily target.


If the price breaks 49.77 resistance on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If the price breaks 45.19 support level on close daily bar so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
If the price breaks 42.59 support level on close daily bar so we may see the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China CPI and 83 pips price movement

2016-09-09 01:30 GMT | [CNY - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNH in our case)

[CNY - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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USD/CNH M5: 83 pips price movement by China CPI news event


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks

2016-09-09 11:45 GMT | [USD - FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks]

[USD - FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks] = Speech about economic forecasts at the South Shore Chamber breakfast, in Boston.

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Exploring the Economy's Progress and Outlook


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EUR/USD M5: 10 pips price movement by FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks news event


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Weekly Outlook: 2016, September 11 - September 18 (based on the article)


The US dollar had a rough back-to-school week, but it made a comeback later on. Inflation data in the UK and the US, GDP data in New Zealand; rate decisions in the UK and employment data in the UK and Australia stand out. These are the top events on FX calendar.

  1. UK Inflation data: Tuesday, 8:30. Economists expect CPI to rise further to 0.7% this time.
  2. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. Economic sentiment is expected to rise again to 2.8% in September.
  3. UK Employment data: Wednesday, 8:30. The number of unemployed is expected to increase by 1,700 in August.
  4. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30.
  5. NZ GDP: Wednesday, 22:45. GDP growth in the second quarter is estimated at 1.1%.
  6. Australian employment data: Thursday, 1:30. Analysts expect a job gain of 15,200 jobs in August, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 5.7%.
  7. UK rate decision: Thursday, 11:00. The bank is confident this move will reduce unemployment and improve the economic growth in the UK.
  8. US Retail Sales: Thursday, 12:30. Retail sales are expected to decline by 0.1% in August, while the core sales are expected to rise by 0.3%.
  9. US PPI: Thursday, 12:30.
  10. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 12:30. Philly Manufacturing activity index is expected to reach 1.1 in September.
  11. US Unemployment claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of new claims is expected to reach 262,000 this week.
  12. US Inflation data: Friday, 12:30. CPI is expected to rise by 0.1% in August, while core CPI is estimated to gain 0.2%.
  13. US UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 14:00. Consumer sentiment is expected to improve slightly to 91 in August.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Fed Members Set to Speak Monday. Will Their Comments Move the Markets? (based on forbes article)

  • "Three Federal Reserve speakers are taking to a dais ahead of the Fed’s blackout period before its next interest-rate decision meeting Sept. 20-21. Given the market reaction to Friday’s Fedspeak, particularly from Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren who turned his typically dovish comments hawkish ahead of the open, it looks to be a big question. His remarks helped pull the markets down like a magnet that, at midday, didn’t appear to be loosening its grip. Even Fed Gov. Daniel Tarullo’s more dovish comments after the open in a CNBC interview didn’t appear to lighten Rosengren’s impact."
  • "What appears to be raising the eyebrows of some Fed watchers is the last-minute press release announcing that long-time dove, Fed board member Lael Brainerd, will speak Monday at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Monday, which will also feature talks from Atlanta Bank President Dennis Lockhart and Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari, is the last day of any Fedspeak ahead of its Sept. 20-21 meeting, which will be a do-it-or-don’t day for a step up in interest rates."
  • "The talk on Wall Street is that the Fed may be putting her out there to send a message that may or may not clear up the uncertainty that has dogged the markets in recent sessions. Here’s what some analysts, on both sides are saying, according to Barron’s: “As a dovish member, Brainard would carry a lot of credibility delivering a more hawkish message,” commented Peter Hooper, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities. Or, this: “There’s a view that she may be going out to express some comfort with the idea of one rate hike this year,” says Gene Tannuzzo, portfolio manager at Columbia Threadneedle Investments. If either of these statements pan out, the next question is when? September or December?"

The the way, the daily price is appeared to be on ranging above 100-day SMA/200-day SMA levels waiting for the direction of the trend:

if the price breaks 1.1326 resistance together with ascending triangle pattern to above so the primary bullish trend will be resumed with 1.1367 target;
if the price breaks 1.1123 support level to below so the bearish reversal of the daily price movement will be started.


Most likely scenariod for the coming week is the following: the price will be on ranging within 1.11/1.14 levels waiting for the direction of the trend.