Daily price is located in the bullish area of the chart to be
near and above Senkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator on the border
between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend.
SUMMARY : ranging near bearish reversal
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.03 10:17
Weekly Outlook: 2016, September 04 - September 11 (based from the article)
Kuroda’s speech, Rate decision in Australia, Canada the EU, Employment data in the US and Canada as well as US Crude Oil Inventories. These are the highlights of this week.
Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5
Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.05 08:47
The most interesting pair you can make money with - EUR/NZD
EUR/NZD: bearish breakdown. This pair is on bearish market condition condition for the breakdown to be started on open daily bar for now: the price is breaking 1.5218 support level to below for the breakdown to be continuing. Chinkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator is located below the price indicating the bearish trend to be continuing on good breakdown way.
The most likely scenarios for the price movement for the week:If daily price breaks 1.5218 support level to below on close bar so the daily breakdown will be continuing with 1.5113 bearish target to re-enter, if not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.
There are the following news events which will be affected on EUR/NZD price movement for the coming week:
Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.06 09:00
What’s Wrong With EUR/USD? (adapted from the article)
According to the post above - and related to 1.1122 bearish reversal level so this level is valid for Ichimoku daily chart as well:
And this level is very close to Central yearly Pivot on W1 chart (1.1101) - and if the price breaks this Central Pivot at 1.1101 to below on weekly close bar so the global bearish reversal will be started for this pair for whole this/next years for example.
Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.06 16:40
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, AUD/USD and USD/CNH: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI2016-09-06 14:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry.
"The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The NMI®
registered 51.4 percent in August, 4.1 percentage points lower than the
July reading of 55.5 percent. This represents continued growth in the
non-manufacturing sector at a slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing
Business Activity Index decreased substantially to 51.8 percent, 7.5
percentage points lower than the July reading of 59.3 percent,
reflecting growth for the 85th consecutive month, at a notably slower
rate in August. The New Orders Index registered 51.4 percent, 8.9
percentage points lower than the reading of 60.3 percent in July. The
Employment Index decreased 0.7 percentage point in August to 50.7
percent from the July reading of 51.4 percent. The Prices Index
decreased 0.1 percentage point from the July reading of 51.9 percent to
51.8 percent, indicating prices increased in August for the fifth
consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 11 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in August."
EUR/USD M5: 85 pips price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.08 11:32
Trading News Events: European Central Bank Minimum Bid Rate (adapted from the article)
Bullish EUR Trade: Governing Council Sticks with Status Quo
is located above 200-day SMA and near above 100 SMA in the bullish area
of the chart: the price is breaking 1.1270 resistance level on close
daily bar for the bullish trend to be continuing with 1.1366 nearest
bullish target. RSI
indicator is estimating the bullish market condition to be continuing.
(all images/charts were made using Metatrader 5 software and free indicators from MQL5 CodeBase)
Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.08 14:02
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB Minimum Bid Rate and 30 pips range price movement
2016-09-08 11:45 GMT | [EUR - Minimum Bid Rate]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
[EUR - Minimum Bid Rate] = Interest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system.
At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the
interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates
on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain
unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council
continues to expect the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or
lower levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon
of the net asset purchases.
Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, the Governing
Council confirms that the monthly asset purchases of €80 billion are
intended to run until the end of March 2017, or beyond, if necessary,
and in any case until it sees a sustained adjustment in the path of
inflation consistent with its inflation aim.
EUR/USD M5: 30 pips range price movement by ECB Minimum Bid Rate news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.08 15:00
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and GBP/USD: U.S. Jobless Claims2016-09-08 12:30 GMT | [USD - Unemployment Claims]
if actual < forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Unemployment Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.
From CNBC article:
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits
unexpectedly fell last week, pointing to sustained labor market strength
even as the pace of job growth is slowing.
Initial claims for state
unemployment benefits decreased 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 259,000
for the week ended Sept. 3, the lowest level since mid-July, the Labor
Department said on Thursday. Claims for the prior week were unrevised.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast first-time applications for jobless benefits rising to 265,000 in the latest week.
It was the 79th straight week
that claims remained below the 300,000 threshold, which is associated
with robust labor market conditions. That is the longest stretch since
1970, when the labor market was much smaller.
EUR/USD M5: 41 pips price movement by Jobless Claims news event
GBP/USD M5: 27 pips range price movement by Jobless Claims news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.09 14:10
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks2016-09-09 11:45 GMT | [USD - FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks]
[USD - FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks] = Speech about economic forecasts at the South Shore Chamber breakfast, in Boston.
Exploring the Economy's Progress and Outlook
EUR/USD M5: 10 pips price movement by FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks news event