Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for August 03 – 07, 2026
Last week, the Fed, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan all kept interest rates unchanged. However, the Fed's tone was not hawkish enough to support the US dollar, and the DXY index fell below 100.00. EUR/USD broke above its previous range and ended the week near 1.1530. bitcoin returned to the 63,000 area, Brent recovered to 88.30, and gold stayed near 4,000.
💶 EUR/USD
The previous neutral-to-bearish scenario worked only at the start of the week. On Tuesday, July 28, the pair fell to 1.1353, but then reversed and ended the week near 1.1530. Resistance at 1.1480 was broken, and the market showed that the dollar did not have enough strength to continue rising. The euro also received support from higher inflation in the Eurozone, which reduces the chances of fast policy easing by the ECB. The nearest support is at 1.1480-1.1500, then at 1.1390-1.1400 and 1.1350-1.1360. Resistance is at 1.1560-1.1580, then at 1.1620 and 1.1685-1.1700. While EUR/USD stays above 1.1480, the advantage is slowly moving to buyers. However, strong US data may return the pair to its previous range.
🟠 bitcoin (BTC/USD)
BTC/USD rose to 67,570 at the start of the week, but again failed to hold above the 67,000-67,265 area. On Saturday, August 01, it was trading near 63,000. The nearest support is at 62,360-63,000, then at 61,255-61,575, 60,300-60,680 and 57,700-59,000. Resistance is at 64,000-65,570, then at 67,000-67,570 and 70,000. While BTC/USD stays below 67,000, the market remains sideways with a bearish bias.
🛢 Brent Oil
Brent fell to 80.64 on Tuesday, but then recovered and ended the week near 88.30. This move showed that after the strong July rally the market is ready for sharp corrections. At the same time, the geopolitical premium has not fully disappeared. The main factor is still the risk around Iran, the Strait of Hormuz and oil supplies. Support is at 86.00-88.00, then at 82.60-84.00 and 80.60-81.00. Resistance is at 89.60-90.00, then at 94.85-96.15 and 98.60-100.00. While Brent stays above 88.00, the bullish impulse remains in place, although it looks weaker. A move below 84.00 would increase the risk of a deeper correction.
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold moved near 4,000 for the whole week, inside a sideways range of 3,995-4,120, and ended the period near 4,045. On the one hand, geopolitical risk and a weaker US dollar supported gold. On the other hand, descending resistance continued to limit upside potential. The nearest support is at 3,995-4,020, then at 3,940-3,960 and 3,880. Resistance is at 4,100-4,120, then at 4,165 and 4,200-4,250. While XAU/USD stays below 4,200, the scenario looks neutral, and the market needs a stronger driver to leave the sideways movement.
📈 Key Events and Likely Trends of the Week
The focus will be on US business activity and labour market data: August 03 – ISM Manufacturing PMI; August 05 – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change for July, which shows the change in private nonfarm employment, and ISM Services PMI; August 07 – the main US labour market report, including Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate.
Likely trends of the week: EUR/USD – moderately bullish above 1.1480. BTC/USD – sideways with a bearish bias below 67,000. Brent – moderately bullish above 88.00, with the risk of a downward correction. XAU/USD – neutral.
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