Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 88

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newdigital, 2014.05.09 15:03

2014-05-09 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [CAD - Employment Change]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

==========

Canadian employment change -28.9K vs. 12.0K forecast

Canadian employment change fell unexpectedly last month, official data showed on Friday.

In a report, Statistics Canada said that Canadian employment change fell to a seasonally adjusted -28.9K, from 42.9K in the preceding month.

Analysts had expected Canadian employment change to rise 12.0K last month.


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USDCAD, M5, 2014.05.09

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USDCAD M5 : 71 pips price movement by CAD - Employment Change news event

USDCAD, M5, 2014.05.09, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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newdigital, 2014.05.14 06:57

Trading the News: Bank of England Inflation Report (based on dailyfx article)

  • Bank of England (BoE) to Provide Updated Growth & Inflation Forecast
  • Will BoE Comment on the British Pound?

The Bank of England’s (BoE) Inflation Report may generate fresh highs in the GBP/USD should the central bank show a greater willingness to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.

What’s Expected:



Why Is This Event Important:

The fresh developments coming out of BoE may boost interest rate expectations should the central bank raise its growth and inflation forecast, and Governor Mark Carney may do little to halt the ongoing appreciation in the British Pound as it helps the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to deliver price stability in the U.K.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release Expected Actual
Jobless Claims Change (MAR) -30.0K -30.4K
ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (FEB) 7.1% 6.6%
Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (MAR) 1.6% 1.6%

Sticky price growth paired with the ongoing improvement in the U.K. labor market may prompt the BoE to adopt a more hawkish tone for monetary policy, and the GBP/USD may continue to extend the advance from earlier this year should we see a growing number of central bank officials show a greater willingness to raise the benchmark interest rate later this year.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release Expected Actual
Mortgage Approvals (MAR) 72.0 67.1K
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q A) 0.9% 0.8%
BBA Loans for House Purchases (MAR) 48950 45933

However, efforts to cool the housing market may limit the BoE’s scope to normalize monetary policy in 2014 as the central bank continues to highlight the persistent slack in the real economy, and the British Pound may face a larger correction in the days ahead should the committee further delay its exit strategy.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish GBP Trade: BoE Adopts More Hawkish Tone- Presents More Detailed Exit Strategy
  • Need green, five-minute candle following an upbeat statement to favor a long British Pound trade
  • If reaction favors buying British Pound, long GBP/USD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; need at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit
Bearish GBP Trade: BoE Monetary Policy Report Drags on Interest Rate Expectations
  • Need red, five-minute candle to consider a short GBP/USD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bullish British Pound trade, just in the opposite direction
Potential Price Targets For The Release

GBP/USD Daily




  • Fails to Maintain Opening Monthly Range (1.6280); Bearish RSI Break Risks Larger Correction
  • Interim Resistance: 1.7000 Pivot to 1.7030 (100.0% expansion)
  • Interim Support: Interim Support: 1.6400 (61.8% expansion) to 1.6430 (23.6% expansion)

February 2014 Bank of England Inflation Report


The BoE inflation report is likely to spur volatility in GBP crosses, especially in the context of the current situation with rate expectations. At the last release, Carney said that the BoE sees further rate increases as gradual and limited. At the release we saw the Pound rally as comments indicated that the central bank saw rate increases, although gradual, sooner rather than later. Since then we have seen the appreciating Pound help cap higher inflation and any further indication that expectations have been lowered may weigh negatively on GBP crosses.


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newdigital, 2014.05.14 12:33

2014-05-14 08:30 GMT (or 10:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - Unemployment Rate]

if actual < forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

GBP - Unemployment Rate = Percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the past 3 months

==========

U.K. Jobless Rate At 5-Year Low

The U.K. unemployment rate fell to a five-year low in the first quarter, data from the Office for National Statistics showed Wednesday.

The ILO jobless rate declined to 6.8 percent during January to March, in line with expectations, from 7.2 percent in October to December.

Average earnings pay including bonuses increased 1.7 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier. Excluding bonuses, average income advanced 1.3 percent.

There were 1.12 million people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance in April, which was down 25,100 from March. Jobless claims, a narrow measure of unemployment, was expected to fall by 30,000.

The claimant count has fallen for 18 consecutive months, ONS said. The claimant count rate came in at 3.3 percent versus 3.4 percent in March.

Partly due to more self-employed people, employment rose by 283,000 from the prior quarter to 30.43 million in January to March period.


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GBPUSD, M5, 2014.05.14

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GBPUSD M5 : 41 pips price movement by GBP - Unemployment Rate news event

GBPUSD, M5, 2014.05.14, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo



Sergey Golubev
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114338
Sergey Golubev  

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newdigital, 2014.05.14 06:57

Trading the News: Bank of England Inflation Report (based on dailyfx article)

  • Bank of England (BoE) to Provide Updated Growth & Inflation Forecast
  • Will BoE Comment on the British Pound?

The Bank of England’s (BoE) Inflation Report may generate fresh highs in the GBP/USD should the central bank show a greater willingness to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.

What’s Expected:



Why Is This Event Important:

The fresh developments coming out of BoE may boost interest rate expectations should the central bank raise its growth and inflation forecast, and Governor Mark Carney may do little to halt the ongoing appreciation in the British Pound as it helps the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to deliver price stability in the U.K.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release Expected Actual
Jobless Claims Change (MAR) -30.0K -30.4K
ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (FEB) 7.1% 6.6%
Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (MAR) 1.6% 1.6%

Sticky price growth paired with the ongoing improvement in the U.K. labor market may prompt the BoE to adopt a more hawkish tone for monetary policy, and the GBP/USD may continue to extend the advance from earlier this year should we see a growing number of central bank officials show a greater willingness to raise the benchmark interest rate later this year.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release Expected Actual
Mortgage Approvals (MAR) 72.0 67.1K
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q A) 0.9% 0.8%
BBA Loans for House Purchases (MAR) 48950 45933

However, efforts to cool the housing market may limit the BoE’s scope to normalize monetary policy in 2014 as the central bank continues to highlight the persistent slack in the real economy, and the British Pound may face a larger correction in the days ahead should the committee further delay its exit strategy.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish GBP Trade: BoE Adopts More Hawkish Tone- Presents More Detailed Exit Strategy
  • Need green, five-minute candle following an upbeat statement to favor a long British Pound trade
  • If reaction favors buying British Pound, long GBP/USD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; need at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit
Bearish GBP Trade: BoE Monetary Policy Report Drags on Interest Rate Expectations
  • Need red, five-minute candle to consider a short GBP/USD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bullish British Pound trade, just in the opposite direction
Potential Price Targets For The Release

GBP/USD Daily




  • Fails to Maintain Opening Monthly Range (1.6280); Bearish RSI Break Risks Larger Correction
  • Interim Resistance: 1.7000 Pivot to 1.7030 (100.0% expansion)
  • Interim Support: Interim Support: 1.6400 (61.8% expansion) to 1.6430 (23.6% expansion)

February 2014 Bank of England Inflation Report


The BoE inflation report is likely to spur volatility in GBP crosses, especially in the context of the current situation with rate expectations. At the last release, Carney said that the BoE sees further rate increases as gradual and limited. At the release we saw the Pound rally as comments indicated that the central bank saw rate increases, although gradual, sooner rather than later. Since then we have seen the appreciating Pound help cap higher inflation and any further indication that expectations have been lowered may weigh negatively on GBP crosses.


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GBPUSD, M5, 2014.05.14

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

GBPUSD M5 : 56 pips price movement by GBP - BOE Inflation Report news event

GBPUSD, M5, 2014.05.14, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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newdigital, 2014.05.15 10:53

2014-05-14 23:50 GMT (or 01:50 MQ MT5 time) | [JPY - GDP]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for JPY in our case)

JPY GDP = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy

==========

Japan GDP Rises 5.9% On Year In Q1

Japan's gross domestic product expanded 5.9 percent on year in the first quarter of 2014, the Cabinet Office said in Thursday's preliminary reading.

That was well above forecasts for an increase of 4.2 percent following the downwardly revised 0.3 percent gain in the previous three months (originally 0.7 percent).

On a quarterly basis, GDP was up 1.5 percent - also topping expectations for an increase of 1.0 percent following the downwardly revised 0.1 percent gain in the fourth quarter (originally 0.2 percent).

Analysts say that the big jump in the economy was the result of dramatically higher consumer spending - particularly on big-ticket items - ahead of the higher consumption tax that took effect in April.

Nominal GDP gained 1.2 percent on quarter, beating forecasts for 1.0 percent following the 0.2 percent gain in Q4.

Capital spending jumped 4.9 percent on quarter - well above forecasts for 2.1 percent after gaining 1.4 percent in the previous three months.

Consumer spending climbed 2.1 percent on quarter - matching expectations and up from 0.4 percent in the three months prior.

The GDP deflator was flat on quarter versus forecasts for a fall of 0.1 percent after shedding a downwardly revised 0.4 percent in the three months prior (originally -0.3 percent).

Also on Thursday, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said that its index measuring tertiary industry activity in Japan was up a seasonally adjusted 2.4 percent on month in March, standing at 103.0.

That was in line with expectations following the upwardly revised 0.9 percent contraction in February (originally -1.0 percent).

Among the individual components, activity was up for retail sales, personal services, accommodations, real estate and communications.

Activity was down for financial services, scientific research, utilities and medical care.


USDJPY M5 : 22 pips range price movement by JPY - GDP news event


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USDJPY, M5, 2014.05.15

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USDJPY M5 : 20 pips price movement by USD - CPI news event

USDJPY, M5, 2014.05.15, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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Press review

newdigital, 2014.05.15 14:36

2014-05-15 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - CPI]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)

USD CPI = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers

==========

U.S. Consumer Prices Rise 0.3% In April, In Line With Estimates

With prices for gasoline, shelter, and food all rising, the Labor Department released a report on Thursday showing that U.S. consumer prices increased in line with economist estimates in the month of April.

The Labor Department said its consumer price index rose by 0.3 percent in April after edging up by 0.2 percent in March. Economists had expected consumer prices to rise by about 0.3 percent.

The increase in consumer prices was partly due to continued growth in food prices, which rose by 0.4 percent for the third consecutive month.

Prices for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs showed a notable 1.5 percent increase in April and are up by 3.9 percent over the last three months.

A rebound in energy prices also contributed to higher consumer prices, with energy prices rising by 0.3 percent in April after dipping by 0.1 percent in March.

Gasoline prices surged up by 2.3 percent in April after falling for three straight months. Prices for natural gas showed a more modest 0.3 percent increase.

Excluding the increases in food and energy prices, core consumer prices still rose by 0.2 percent in April, matching the increase seen in the previous month. Core prices had been expected to tick up by 0.1 percent.

The Labor Department said the growth in core prices reflected increases by most of the major components, including shelter, medical care, airline fares, new vehicles, used cars and trucks, and recreation.

With the monthly increases in prices, the annual rate of consumer price growth accelerated to 2.0 percent in April from 1.5 percent in March, representing the biggest increase since last July.

The annual rate of core consumer price growth also ticked up to 1.8 percent in April from 1.7 percent in the previous month.

Paul Dales, Senior U.S. Economist at Capital Economics, said, "It's possible that some of these rises are payback from the earlier weakness generated by the bad weather. But most of that rebound took place in March."

"In short, this could be the start of a widespread pick-up in price pressures that will take both the CPI and PCE measures of core inflation above the Fed's 2% target," he added.

On Wednesday, the Labor Department released a separate report showing that producer prices rose at their fastest pace in over a year in April.

The Labor Department said its producer price index for final demand rose by 0.6 percent in April following a 0.5 percent increase in March.

The monthly price growth reflected the biggest increase since September of 2012 and exceeded economist estimates for an uptick of about 0.2 percent.

Core producer prices also showed continued growth, climbing by 0.5 percent in April after rising by 0.6 percent in March. Core prices had been expected to rise by 0.2 percent.



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How to Start with MT5, a summary !

angevoyageur, 2013.03.15 16:12

How to start with MT5 platform : summary.

As our topic about "How to start with Metatrader 5" is going to be huge, here you find a summary, with main links.



For developpers.


Work in progress, stay tuned :-)


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Gold is Reaching at 1270

newdigital, 2013.07.01 21:04

How can we know: correction, or bullish etc (in case of using indicator for example)?

well ... let's take AbsoluteStrength indicator from MT5 CodeBase.

bullish (Bull market) :

bearish (Bear market) :

ranging (choppy market - means: buy and sell on the same time) :


flat (sideways market - means: no buy and no sell) :

correction :

correction in a bear market (Bear Market Rally) :



Sergey Golubev
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newdigital, 2014.05.16 13:32

Trading the News: U. of Michigan Confidence (based on dailyfx article)

U. of Michigan Confidence to Improve for Second Consecutive Month.
- Print of 84.5 Would Mark the Highest Reading Since July.

Trading the News: U. of Michigan Confidence


A second straight rise in the U. of Michigan Confidence survey may spur a further decline in the EUR/USD as the ongoing improvement in the world’s largest economy puts increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.

What’s Expected:



Why Is This Event Important:

Despite expectations for a rate hike in 2015, a further pickup in household sentiment may undermine the Fed’s scope to retain the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) well into the following year, and a positive development may help to paint a more bullish outlook for the dollar as it raises the outlook for growth and inflation.

The ongoing improvement in the labor market along with the expansion in private sector lending may encourage a further pickup in consumer sentiment, and a better-than-expected print may generate a more bearish outlook for the EUR/USD as it raises the prospects for a stronger recovery.

However, sticky inflation paired with subdued wage growth may drag household confidence, and a dismal U. of Michigan release may spur a more meaningful rebound in the EUR/USD as drags on interest rate expectations.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish USD Trade: U. of Michigan Survey Advances to 84.5 or Higher

  • Need to see red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on EURUSD
  • If market reaction favors a long dollar trade, sell EURUSD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit
Bearish USD Trade: Household Confidence Falters
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EURUSD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction
Potential Price Targets For The Release

EUR/USD Daily




  • Fails to Retain Bullish RSI Momentum- Close Below Support to Favor Bearish Outlook
  • Interim Resistance: 1.3960-70 (61.8% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.3650 (78.6 expansion) to 1.3660 (23.6 retracement)
Impact that the U. of Michigan Confidence has had on EUR/USD during the last release

PeriodData ReleasedEstimateActualPips Change
(1 Hour post event )
Pips Change
(End of Day post event)
APR P
2014
04/11/2014 13:55 GMT 81.0 82.6 +7 +8

The University of Michigan Confidence survey beat estimates last month coming in at 82.6 vs. 81.0 expected. The figure has failed to break 86 since 2007. Although not a large market mover, any major deviation from expectations could add to pressure on the greenback.

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USDJPY, M5, 2014.05.16

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USDJPY M5 : 15 pips price movement by USD - UoM Consumer Sentiment news event

USDJPY, M5, 2014.05.16, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
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There is very interesting and unique situation for USDJPY for now : breakdown for D1 and W1 timeframes.

D1 timeframe: Chinkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator is crossing historical price on open bar from above to below, and D1 price is located below Ichimoku cloud/kumo. Nearest support level is 101.31
Possible breakdown.

W1 price: Chinkou Span line is crossing the price on open W1 bar from above to below, but W1 price is located above kumo. Nearest support level is 101.31
Possible correction.

If D1 price will break 101.31 support on close D1 bar so we may see good price movement with the primary bearish to be continuing.
If W1 price will break 101.31 support on close W1 bar so this tendency for downtrend will become long term situation.
If not so we may see the ranging market condition.

  • Recommendation for short: watch D1 price for breaking 101.31 support level on close bar for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: n/a
  • Trading Summary: D1 breakdown