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newdigital, 2014.06.05 09:41
USDCHF Breakout Hindered by 200-Day Moving Average (adapted from dailyfx article)
The 200-Day Simple Moving Average
The 200-Day Simple Moving Average is one of the most popular indicators
in the world. When price breaks through a 200 MA on a daily chart, it
can often be seen as a topic of conversation on financial news stations,
websites and newspapers.
It is primarily used to give traders and investors an overall sense of how strong or weak a currency pair is.
Typically, when a currency pair’s price falls below the 200 Day MA, it
is a sign of weakness with a potential for further price decline. And
when a currency pair’s price breaks above the 200 Day MA, it is a sign
of strength with a potential for further price increases.The chart above shows the recent price action surrounding the 200 Day
MA. We see a large run up in price breaking through multiple resistance
levels until it met this powerful MA line. We have had 6 consecutive
days where price has temporarily broke through the 200 Day MA or price
has come within 10 pips of the line before retreating lower. So this
level is acting as strong resistance.
If price were to remain below the MA, it could propel it lower back into
the pair’s price channel. However, a breakout to the upside could add
yet another reason to buy the USDCHF. Until we witness a larger price
move, we are in a state of limbo.
newdigital, 2014.06.05 13:33
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
[GBP - Interest Rate] = Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the BOE to other banks. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation
- traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates
will change in the future.
BoE Retains Key Rate At Historic Low; QE At GBP 375 Bln
As widely expected, the Bank of England on Thursday kept its
interest rate at a historic-low and the size of quantitative easing at
GBP 375 billion.
The Monetary Policy Committee governed by Mark
Carney voted to leave the key bank rate unchanged at 0.50 percent. The
rate has been at the current 0.50 percent since March 2009.
panel also decided to maintain the asset purchase programme at GBP 375
billion. The previous change in asset purchases was in July 2012, when
it was raised by GBP 50 billion.
The bank first launched quantitative easing in March 2009 with an initial value of GBP 75 billion.
In August 2013, the bank pledged not to hike the interest rate until the unemployment rate falls to 7 percent.
the unemployment started falling faster than estimated to a level below
the target, the BoE widened the scope of its forward guidance last
February, and assured markets that interest rates will not be raised before the second quarter of 2015.
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
GBPUSD, M5, 2014.06.05
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
GBPUSD M5 : 17 pips price movement by GBP - Interest Rate news event
newdigital, 2014.06.10 11:34
2014-06-10 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - Manufacturing Production]
[GBP - Manufacturing Production] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers. It's a leading indicator of economic health - production reacts quickly
to ups and downs in the business cycle and is correlated with consumer
conditions such as employment levels and earnings.
U.K. Industrial Production Growth Improves In April
U.K. industrial production expanded at a faster pace in April, the Office for National Statistics said Tuesday.
output gained 0.4 percent in April from March, when it grew by revised
0.1 percent. The rate matched economists' expectations.
increase in total production reflected increase of 0.4 percent in
manufacturing, the fifth consecutive increase since November 2013.
Manufacturing output growth also came in line with expectations.
a yearly basis, industrial production grew 3 percent versus 2.5 percent
in March. This was the eighth consecutive increase since August 2013.
At the same time, manufacturing output advanced 4.4 percent.
Economists had forecast industrial output to rise 2.8 percent and manufacturing to grow 4 percent.
GBPUSD, M5, 2014.06.10
GBPUSD M5 : 25 pips price movement by GBP - Manufacturing Production news event
newdigital, 2014.06.11 08:59
Trading the News: U.K. Jobless Claims Change (based on dailyfx article)
Another decline in U.K. Jobless Claims may prompt a near-term advance in
the GBP/USD as it puts increased pressure on the Bank of England (BoE)
to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.
Why Is This Event Important:
Indeed, the BoE Minutes due out on June 18 may highlight a growing
dissent within the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) as the central bank
continues to see a stronger recovery in 2014, and the bullish sentiment
surrounding the British Pound may gather pace in the second-half of the
year should we see a growing number of BoE officials adopt a more
hawkish tone for monetary policy.
The ongoing expansion in private sector consumption along with the rise
in business outputs may generate a larger-than-expected decline in
unemployment, and an upbeat labor report may pave the way for a
higher-high in the GBP/USD as it raises the fundamental outlook for the
However, sticky inflation paired with the slowdown in private lending
may drag on hiring, and a dismal jobless claims report may spur a larger
correction in the GBP/USD as it drags on interest rate expectations.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish GBP Trade: U.K. Jobless Claims Contract 25.0K or Greater
GBPUSD M5 : 41 pips price movement by GBP - Unemployment Rate news event:
U.K. Jobless Claims fell another 25.1K in April following the 30.6K
contraction the month prior, while the ILO rate narrowed to an
annualized 6.8% from 6.9% to mark the lowest reading since February
2009. Nevertheless, the GBP/USD traded lower as the print missed market
expectations, and the British Pound weakened further throughout the day
as the Bank of England Inflation report dampened bets of seeing the
central bank normalize monetary policy ahead of schedule.
GBPUSD, M5, 2014.06.11
GBPUSD M5 : 36 pips price movement by GBP - Unemployment Rate news event
newdigital, 2014.06.13 07:01
2014-06-12 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Retail Sales]
U.S. Retail Sales in May Grow Slower than Estimated
The US Commerce Department reported on Thursday that retail sales in May
rose 0.3 percent, much lower than analysts’ estimate of 0.6 percent
gain and April’s revised 0.5 percent growth.
“The continued gains during the first two months of the second quarter
suggests that consumers are continuing to hold their side of the
bargain, building on the strong momentum at the end of the last
quarter,” Millan Mulraine, a New York-based deputy chief economist at TD
Securities, told Reuters.
Separately, the Labor Department announced that initial applications for
unemployment insurance rose 4,000 to 317,000 in the week through June
7. Nonetheless, recent data shows that the US labor market continues to
Employers in the country absorbed 217,000 new workers
in May, marking the fourth straight month that the figure has stayed
above 200,000. This has seen all the 8.7 million jobs that were shed in
the financial recession recouped back.
Most analysts expect the economic growth in the second quarter to
range from 3 percent to 4 percent, riding on the back of the resurgent
services and manufacturing sectors. The economy posted a 1 percent
decline in the first quarter owing to the harsh winter weather.Another data released by the Commerce Department on Wednesday showed
that business inventories grew the most in the six months through April.
The core retail sales, which are adjusted for food, gasoline,
automobiles and building materials, remained unchanged in May. The
figures in April were readjusted to show an increase of 0.2 percent as
opposed to the earlier estimate of a 0.1 percent decline.
newdigital, 2014.06.17 07:44
Trading the News: U.K. Consumer Price Index (based on dailyfx article)
A marked slowdown in the U.K.’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) may generate a
larger pullback in the GBP/USD as it limits Bank of England (BoE) scope
to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.
Why Is This Event Important:
Nevertheless, the BoE Minutes due out later this week may reveal a
growing dissent within the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) as U.K.
officials see a stronger recovery in 2014, and the market reaction to
the U.K. CPI print could be short-lived should we see a growing number
of central bank officials adopt a more hawkish tone for monetary policy.U.K. firms may offer discounted prices amid weak wage growth paired with
the slowdown in private sector credit, and a weak inflation print may
undermine the near-term outlook for the GBP/USD as it drags on interest
Nevertheless, the resilience in private sector consumption along with
the ongoing improvement in the labor market may limit the downside risk
for price growth, and a stronger-than-expected CPI print may heighten
the bullish sentiment surrounding the sterling as it fuels bets for a
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bearish GBP Trade: U.K. CPI Slips to 1.7% or Lower
GBPUSD M5 : 34 pips price movement by GBPUSD - CPI news event:
U.K. consumer prices increased an annualized 1.8% in April after
expanding 1.6% the month prior, while the core rate of inflation climbed
2.0% to mark the fastest pace of growth since September. Despite the
stronger-than-expected CPI print, the GBP/USD slipped below the 1.6825
region following the release, but the British Pound pared the decline
during the North American trade to close at 1.6836.
GBPUSD, M5, 2014.06.17
GBPUSD M5 : 38 pips price movement by GBP - CPI news event
newdigital, 2014.06.21 08:08
USD/JPY nearing important break (based on dailyfx article)
newdigital, 2014.06.21 08:17
End of month important for Gold (based on dailyfx article)
I am trying to prepare myself to make a technical analysis for the next week on the same way as I am doing it in every weekend ... so -
newdigital, 2014.06.23 06:41
2014-06-23 01:45 GMT (or 03:45 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - HSBC Manufacturing PMI]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for CNY in our case)
[CNY - HSBC Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry. It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly
to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the
most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy
Acro Expand : The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC), Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI).
HSBC flash manufacturing PMI tops 50 for first time this year
CHINA’S factory sector appears to be
doing well, with the HSBC flash manufacturing Purchasing Managers’
Index rising to a seven-month high of 50.8 in June, from May’s 49.4.
It’s the first time the index has topped 50 — the dividing line
between expansion and contraction — so far this year (although a
competing, official PMI has been stronger). That suggests a combination
of government spending and improving exports may be arresting the
downward slide the economy has seen so far this year — though a weak
housing market remains a major concern.
The reading came in well
above forecasts. A survey of analysts by Bloomberg tipped a slight rise
in the survey to 49.7. The flash index is published ahead of final PMI
data and is usually based on 85 per cent to 90 per cent of total survey
responses each month.
HSBC’s chief China economist Hongbin Qu said
the improvement in the PMI was broadbased, with both domestic orders
and external demand subindices in expansionary territory.
“This month’s improvement is consistent with data suggesting that
the authorities’ mini-stimulus are filtering through to the real
economy,” he said.
“Over the next few months, infrastructure
investments and related sectors will continue to support the recovery.
We expect policy makers to continue their current path of accommodative
policy stance until the recovery is sustained.”
Here’s what the major economists said:
June HSBC flash PMI came as a big upside surprise, jumping to 50.8 from
49.4 in May (versus a market forecast of 49.7). This rebound reflects
the initial impact of Beijing’s mini-stimulus programs. As Beijing is
determined to deliver stable growth with a slew of mini-stimulus
measures, including central bank relending (QE in China) and targeted
reserve requirement ratio cuts (a total of RMB200bn), we observed a
bounce-back of confidence in the economy which will help bolster demand.
-- Ting Lu and Xiaojia Zhi, Bank of America Merrill Lynch
PMI reading is the latest sign that, in some sectors at least,
downwards pressure on growth has largely eased. The continued recovery
of both manufacturing PMIs in recent months, despite further weakness in
the property sector, suggests that the government’s targeted approach
to shoring up growth is working. The rebound in infrastructure
investment since the end of Q1, along with more recent measures to boost
lending to small firms, appears to have eased downwards pressure on
manufacturing and industrial output. -- Julian Evans-Pritchard, Capital Economics
demand is picking up, given the government’s supportive policies. On
the monetary policy side, the central bank recently lowered the reserve
requirement ratio for selected banks to support small and medium-sized
enterprises and rural-related sectors. This will improve small business
financial conditions in the coming months as banks will have more money
available to pump into the economy ... But given the difficulties from
the removal of excess capacity and the downturn in the property market,
the pace of recovery will be mild. -- Fan Zhang, CIMB
the last few months the Chinese government has rolled out quite a lot
of easing plans, but the pick-up is still quite mild. It’s too early to
say the economy has bottomed out. What the government can do now is buy
time to allow the impact of reforms to kick in. We are still quite
worried about the property sector, but there’s a chance we could see the
economy improve based on more fiscal spending. -- Xie Dongming, OCBC
seems the selective easing is working, with the help of exports,
although I wouldn’t say so soon that everything’s well. The housing
downturn could continue to deepen, so the downside risk is still there.
The drag from the housing sector will remain, so we’re unlikely to see a
very strong rebound like we saw in the third quarter last year. Growth
will probably flatline — that’s the best scenario in my view. -- Wei Yao, Société Générale
AUDUSD, M5, 2014.06.23
AUDUSD M5 : 40 pips price movement by CNY - HSBC Manufacturing PMI news event
newdigital, 2014.06.23 15:32
GBP/USD holds near 6-year highs
remains near 6-year highs, having managed to close last week above the
1.7000 mark and underpinned by solid manufacturing data from China.The
greenback trades a tad softer across the board amid better sentiment
after China’s HSBC PMI came in at a 7-month high of 50.8, first time
above the 50 mark this year. The dollar also continues to suffer after a
FOMC meeting last week, which offered little indication the Fed will hike rates anytime soon, contrasting BoE's recent comments.The GBP/USD rose to a daily high of 1.7048 and it is currently trading at the 1.7040 zone, 0.18% above its opening price. GBP/USD levels to watchImmediate
resistance levels for the Cable line up at 1.7062 (2014 high Jun 19),
1.7100 (psychological level) and 1.7180 (Oct 10 2008 high). On the flip
side, supports are now seen at 1.7000 (psychological level), 1.6947
(10-day SMA) and 1.6920 (Jun 18 low).