GBPUSD Technical Analysis 09.02 - 16.02: Bear Market Rally Breakout?
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newdigital, 2014.02.08 15:31
GBPUSD Fundamentals (based on dailyfx article)
Fundamental Forecast for the British Pound: Bearish
- British Pound underperformance suggests it could move lower
- A sharp turn in retail forex sentiment warns of a potential GBPUSD turnaround
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newdigital, 2014.02.09 17:01
GBP/USD weekly outlook: February 10 - 14The pound was higher against the broadly weaker dollar on Friday after data showed the U.S. economy added jobs at a slower-than-expected pace in January.
Tuesday, February 11
The U.K. is to release private sector data on retail sales.
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is to testify on the bank’s semiannual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington.
Wednesday, February 12
The BoE is to release its quarterly inflation report, which outlines projections for economic growth and inflation. BoE Governor Mark Carney is to hold a press conference to discuss the contents of the report.
Thursday, February 13
The U.S. is to produce data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The nation is also to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims.
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is to testify on the bank’s semiannual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington.
Friday, February 14
The U.S. is to wrap up the week with the closely watched preliminary reading of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. The U.S. is also to release data on import prices and industrial production.
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newdigital, 2014.02.11 16:32
2013-02-11 15:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speech]
- past data is n/a
- forecast data is n/a
- actual data is n/a according to the latest press release
Due to testify on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington DC
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Europe Stocks Rise as Yellen Says Jobs Recovery Not Over
European stocks rose, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbing for a fifth day, as Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen said more work is needed to restore the labor market to health.
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Fed chair Janet Yellen promises 'continuity,' further stimuls reduction
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen says that if the economy keeps improving, the U.S. central bank will take "further measured steps" to reduce the support it's providing through monthly bond purchases.
In her first public comments since taking over the top Fed job last week, Yellen said Tuesday that she expects a "great deal of continuity" with her predecessor, Ben Bernanke. She signalled that she supports his view that the economy is strengthening enough to withstand a pullback in stimulus but that interest rates should stay low to fuel further growth.
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GBPUSD M5 : 40 pips price movement by USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speech news event
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newdigital, 2014.02.12 07:24
Trading the News: Bank of England Inflation Report (based on this article)The Bank of England’s (BoE) Inflation Report may produce fresh highs in the British Pound should the central bank retain the 7% unemployment threshold, while preserving a positive outlook for the U.K. economy.
What’s Expected:
Time of release: 02/12/2014 10:30 GMT, 5:30 EST
Primary Pair Impact: GBPUSD
Expected: --
Previous: --
Forecast: --
Why Is This Event Important:
However, the BoE to talk down bets for a rate hike in 2014 as inflation falls back to the 2% target, and the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may lay out an interest rate forecast similar to the Federal Reserve in an effort to better-manage market expectations.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish GBP Trade: BoE Shows Greater Willingness to Normalize Sooner Rather Than Later
- Need green, five-minute candle following the statement to favor a long GBP trade
- If reaction favors buying British Pound, long GBPUSD with two separate position
- Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; need at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit
- Need red, five-minute candle to consider a short GBPUSD trade
- Implement same setup as the bullish British Pound trade, just in the opposite direction
- Appears to Have Carved Higher Low as RSI Retains Bullish Trend
- Interim Resistance: 1.6700 Pivot to 1.6730 (100.0 expansion)
- Interim Support: 1.6300 Pivot to 1.6310 (50.0 expansion)- Close Basis
| Period | Data Released | Estimate | Actual | Pips Change (1 Hour post event ) | Pips Change (End of Day post event) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOV 2013 | 11/13/2013 10:30 GMT | -- | -- | +36 | +132 |
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GBPUSD M5 : 57 pips price movement by GBP - Bank of England Inflation Report news event
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newdigital, 2014.02.13 15:10
2013-02-13 13:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Retail Sales]- past data is 0.2%
- forecast data is 0.0%
- actual data is -0.4% according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
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U.S. Retail Sales Show Unexpected Drop In January
With auto sales showing another notable decrease, the Commerce Department released a report on Thursday showing an unexpected drop in U.S. retail sales in the month of January.
The report said retail sales dropped by 0.4 percent in January following a revised 0.1 percent decrease in December. Economists had expected sales to come in unchanged compared to the 0.2 percent increase originally reported for the previous month.
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GBPUSD M5 : 32 pips price movement by USD - Retail Sales news event
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newdigital, 2014.02.14 07:35
2013-02-14 01:30 GMT (or 02:30 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - CPI]- past data is 2.5%
- forecast data is 2.4%
- actual data is 2.5% according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for CNY in our case)
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China CPI Climbs 2.5% On Year In January
Consumer prices in China were up 2.5 percent on year in January, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday.
That was unchanged from the December reading, and it exceeded forecasts for 2.4 percent.
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GBPUSD M5 : 9 pips price movement by CNY - CPI news event
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newdigital, 2014.02.14 15:37
2013-02-14 14:15 GMT (or 15:15 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Industrial Production]- past data is 0.3%
- forecast data is 0.3%
- actual data is -0.3% according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
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U.S. Industrial Production Shows Unexpected Drop In January
With severe weather curtailing manufacturing production in some regions of the country, the Federal Reserve released a report on Friday showing that U.S. industrial production unexpectedly decreased in the month of January.
The report said industrial production fell by 0.3 percent in January after rising by 0.3 percent in December. The pullback came as a surprise to economists, who had expected production to increase by another 0.3 percent.
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GBPUSD M5 : 13 pips price movement by USD - Industrial Production news event
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Chinkou Span line came to historical rice for possible breakout on D1 timeframe. But the price is located inside Ichimoku cloud/kumo with flat or ranging market condition for the few past days. Market Rally was started on Friday but on open bar onle, and the price is still inside kumo located below Sinkou Span A line which is the border of the cloud and virtual border between primary bearish and primary bullish market condition.
Breakout was already started on Friday on H4 timeframe but on open bar only as well. Besides the brose is on primary bearish lated below Ichimoku cloud.
W1 timeframe - flat within primary bullish since the December last year.
If the price will break upper border of the cloud (Sinkou Span A) together with Chinkou Span crossing the price on close bar, and if resistance level 1.6497 will be broken so we may see the reversal of the price from bearish to primary bullish.
If not so we may see the ranging market condition or flat within primary bearish.
UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on GBPUSD price movement for this coming week)
2013-02-11 00:01 GMT (or 01:01 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - BRC Retail Sales Monitor]
2013-02-11 15:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speech]
2013-02-12 02:00 GMT (or 03:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - Trade Balance]
2013-02-12 10:30 GMT (or 11:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - BOE Gov Carney Speech]
2013-02-13 13:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Retail Sales]ss
2013-02-13 15:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speech]
2013-02-14 01:30 GMT (or 02:30 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - CPI]
2013-02-14 01:30 GMT (or 02:30 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - PPI]
2013-02-14 14:55 GMT (or 15:55 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment]Please note : some US (and CNY) high/medium impacted news events (incl speeches) are also affected on GBPUSD price movement
SUMMARY : rally
TREND : ranging
Intraday Chart