5 Things To Know About Euro-Zone GDP
There were a handful of clear messages in the raft of European
first quarter GDP data released on Thursday. By and large they were
disappointing, showing a struggle for growth across the euro zone, with
Germany providing the sole ray of light. Here’s what’s to know.
2014-05-15 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
Philly Fed Index Drops Less Than Expected In May
Activity in the Philadelphia-area manufacturing sector expanded for
the third consecutive month in May, according to a report released by
the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia on Thursday, although the index
of activity in the sector fell compared to the previous month.
the Philly Fed said its diffusion index of current general activity
dipped to 15.4 in May from 16.6 in April, a positive reading still
indicates growth in the regional manufacturing sector. Economists had
expected the index to drop to a reading of 14.3.
How Bear Markets Start (adapted from Forbes article)
During the March-April market plunge, many of the formerly best
performing stocks declined a big 20%-60%. Investors who were lulled into
complacency by Wall Street bullishness were shocked. That’s why it’s
important to listen to impartial analysts who don’t have a conflict of
interest. A money manager can never tell you to go to cash.
Early this year, my column on Forbes.com was headed: The Most Reliable Indicator Of An Approaching Market Top.
Now you can see that the ETF (iShares Russell 2000, IWM) for the
Russell 2000 index (small cap stocks) and the Nasdaq composite are well
below their January levels and their highs for this year. They have
big, bearish “head & shoulder (H&S)” tops. The IWM has broken
its 200 day MA, which is considered the dividing line between a bull
and bear market if the trend persist.Over the past two months, the Nasdaq lost 10.7% (top to bottom) while
the other major indices declined less than half that much. The DJI is
now back at its all-time high. But are these 30 stocks, subject to easy
manipulation, really a true measure of the stock market?
In March I got warning signals from all my technical indicators that
meaningful declines in the favorite high-flyers were ahead. I cautioned
investors (see CNBC, CNBC Asia, YouTube, etc.) to ignore the DJI and
S&P 500 and focus on the small-cap stocks and the Nasdaq to get a
true reading of the markets. When Wall Street is looking at the DJI and
the S&P 500, it’s more important to look at the Nasdaq and the
small cap indices to tell you about the only thing that can change the
price of a stock or an index: a change in money flow.
The popular stocks got slammed. Look at this list and their losses
since late March when I got my “sell” signal. These are losses for just
two months, which many traders following the traditional advice
incurred. As you can see, the action of the DJI was irrelevant.Our weight of the evidence now shows very clear signals. Being prepared
is the way to benefit from declining prices. With the “bear” ETFs even
the less-experienced investors can profit if they have the proper
guidance. Just don’t use the “Ostrich Strategist” in a bear market,
which is burying your head in the sand until the stock market plunge is
over. There are some great opportunities ahead.
Why gold could struggle if CPI heats up
There's nothing like a little inflation talk to bring out the gold bugs.
But analysts say even the prospect of slightly higher-than-expected
U.S. inflation readings after Wednesday's higher-than-expected April PPI
won't be much of a catalyst for prices, and could actually hold back
Helped by a falling dollar and weaker global equities
prices, gold rose Wednesday above the key psychological level of $1,300,
a zone that often attracts buying. The August gold futures contract was
at about $1,305 per troy ounce, while the front-month June futures
contract on Comex was at $1,304.
But some analysts said gold could continue to struggle near-term,
but if it holds a higher range it may begin to edge higher. Gold hit a
six-month low at the end of last year, trading at $1,181 on Dec. 31.
Since then it has gained 10.5 percent.
"We pushed above the 200-day moving average...We pushed above it
Monday," he said. He noted the market extended gains after crossing
$1,301.10 and could move sideways to possibly higher. "We are right now
in a choppy trading range, and we have been for the past three weeks. If
we can push prices above last week's high of $1,315.80, in the June
futures contract, that would be a bullish upside breakout and would
suggest the trend is sideways to higher."
Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options, said if gold can settle above $1,325, it will attract more longs.
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
How to Start with MT5, a summary !
angevoyageur, 2013.03.15 16:12
How to start with MT5 platform : summary.
As our topic about "How to start with Metatrader 5" is going to be huge, here you find a summary, with main links.
Work in progress, stay tuned :-)
NASDAQ OMX Releases its SMARTS FX Surveillance Solution for Compliance Team
Leading foreign exchange solutions provider NASDAQ OMX Group has
launched its SMARTS FX Trade Surveillance used in international FX
The SMARTS module can help regulators and surveillance professionals to
track FX products trading for any potential insider trades or
front-running, illegal pricing, manipulation of benchmark forex rates,
and other suspicious behaviors. The system enables users to track and
moderate risks common to the FX market and also enables them to have a
whole picture of trades of each individual currency pairs such as
Non-Deliverable Forwards, Spot, and Forward.
This helps compliance teams obtain a deeper visualization of the various
FX trades based on financial market trends and rate fixes. SMARTS
provides users with all information feeds from several market data
"As the regulatory requirements in the FX market continue to evolve, it
has been a challenge for brokers and their compliance teams to
identify where to initiate monitoring activity and to focus their
resources," Rob Lang, the Vice President and Global Head of SMARTS,
NASDAQ OMX, said in a press release.
"Through a co-development initiative with six major FX trading firms,
SMARTS has worked to define the behaviors that support the FX
surveillance priorities of these industry players, as well as develop a
set of now-deployed alerts within the unique data constraints of the FX
NASDAQ OMX SMARTS solution gathers data on options, equities, energy,
commodities, futures and fixed income, which helps compliance
professionals to have all the trading data to help them investigate the
possibility of market manipulation and abuse
Becoming an Emotionally Intelligent Trader (based on dailyfx article)
We’re only in it for the money. That key trading concept is obvious but
shouldn’t be forgotten. The reason why this mantra is key is because
we’re not into trading for the following reasons:
Why Emotions Get Shunned By Traders
Some traders opt for an Automated Trading or Black Box strategy. The
purpose of a black-box system is to have your preferred trading rules or
edge programmed so as to put you into a trade and exit you from a trade
when the edge is gone or the profit target is achieved. The argument of
this approach is that your emotions can’t get in the way of you
entering or exiting a trade. However, a trading career is made up of
more than just on trade and if you do not have the emotional strength to
stick with your edge, programmer or discretionary, then your emotions
are still getting the best of you.Either way, your emotions are at play. If you’re deciding when to enter
the trade yourself, known as discretionary trading, your emotions are
obviously at play. The way emotions effect newer traders is that new
traders hope their losses will come back so they let them run in order
to avoid booking a loss. They fear that their profits will turn into
losses so they cut them short. However, this fear and hope tug-of-war
doesn’t work out in the traders favor in the long term.
A Better Way to Look at Emotions
Emotions aren’t bad if you know how to steer them towards your benefit.
By default, you likely don’t like being wrong or losing money, who
would? However, taking a big picture view, being wrong sometimes and
losing a little money when deciding if the market is going to move in
the direction you believe it will, these two things aren’t that bad and
are in fact, inevitable.
So a better way to look at emotions is to flip how you’re using hope and
fear and most specifically fear. If you can switch your fear from a
place of fearing a losing to trade to fearing a losing trade getting out
of control, you’ll discover a key emotional truth to trading well,
regardless of your balance.
As the opening quote mentions, instead of hoping that your loss will
turn into a profit so you don’t look like a failure, you should hope
that your profits grow larger while always fearing a large relative
loss. By flipping these from there default function, you’re no longer
holding onto a losing trading waiting for it to come back while closing
out your good trades at a minimal profit afraid that the profit will
slip through your fingers. As Michael Martin put it, that’s like pulling
your flowers and letting your weeds flourish in hoping they change.
Applying Your Emotions to FX Trading AppropriatelySo now that you know that your emotions are not your enemy when
appropriately adjusted, what’s the best way to apply this information?
This may come as a shock, but you need to start from the premise that
you don’t know FOR SURE if your next trade will hit its protective stop
or profit target. Of course, you’d prefer that every trade hit its
profit target but by now, you know that’s not always the case.
However, like the picture from above, you’re not sure if the next trade will take you off the road you were
planning on driving down (read: the trend bends or ends to get you out
of your trade). Therefore, when you’re in a trade based on your edge or
indicators, it’s best to keep an eye for trades that go against you from
the start and see that it’s best to fear these trades and get out there
or just accept that your profit target most likely will not get hit but
whatever you do, don’t remove your stop and hope for a trade that goes
sour right away. These are the trades you should rightly fear draining
On the flip side, if you’re entering at the right time and price
(unbeknownst to you or not), and the trade goes in your favor right
away, then it’s best to keep the hope in play that this could be a big
move that makes your day, week, month, or year and move your stop up to
break even when your system sees it appropriate.
I’ll leave you with a quote from Michael Martin that’s been helpful for
me and I hope it does the same for you. “Winners never quit, but
quitters have more equity in their accounts when they admit defeat and
return tomorrow with a fresh start and a clear head.” This world of
trading is a paradox, the trading paradox involves embracing losing
trades early and often while allowing those few golden trades make your
Trading the News: U. of Michigan Confidence (based on dailyfx article)
U. of Michigan Confidence to Improve for Second Consecutive Month.
- Print of 84.5 Would Mark the Highest Reading Since July.
Trading the News: U. of Michigan Confidence
A second straight rise in the U. of Michigan Confidence survey may spur a
further decline in the EUR/USD as the ongoing improvement in the
world’s largest economy puts increased pressure on the Federal Reserve
to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.
Why Is This Event Important:
Despite expectations for a rate hike in 2015, a further pickup in
household sentiment may undermine the Fed’s scope to retain the
zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) well into the following year, and a
positive development may help to paint a more bullish outlook for the
dollar as it raises the outlook for growth and inflation.
The ongoing improvement in the labor market along with the expansion in
private sector lending may encourage a further pickup in consumer
sentiment, and a better-than-expected print may generate a more bearish
outlook for the EUR/USD as it raises the prospects for a stronger
However, sticky inflation paired with subdued wage growth may drag
household confidence, and a dismal U. of Michigan release may spur a
more meaningful rebound in the EUR/USD as drags on interest rate
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: U. of Michigan Survey Advances to 84.5 or Higher
Trading Video: Risk and Yield Trends Unlikely to Turn EURUSD, EURJPY
A sharp drop from risk trends had FX traders looking for volatility
amongst the majors. Yet, the masses refused to bite having become quite
acclimated to provocative counter-moves that routinely fall short of
momentum. At the same time, trends arising from divergent monetary
policy bearings surrendered their drive to a compression in yields.
While short-term ambitions have been put on hold, the medium-term trade
potential remains. A risk aversion move would be far more violent and
self-sustaining than a 'risk on' outcome; and the recent shift in
central bank bearings has considerable premium yet to play out. We look
at how the trade picture changes for pairs like EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURJPY and others as volatility changes around major themes in today's Trading Video.