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USD/JPY Clears 102.00 As Harami Suggests Further Gains
- USD/JPY Technical Strategy: Longs Preferred
- Push back above 120.00 opens 102.70
- Harami pattern supports further gains
USD/JPY’s push past 102.00 following the Harami formation on the daily puts the next noteworthy resistance level at 102.70 on the cards. The absence of a bearish signal on the daily and four hour charts gives little indication of a potential intraday reversal.USD/JPY: Prices Push Past 102.00 Following Harami Pattern
An examination of intraday price action on the chart below highlights the hesitation from the bulls near 102.00. However following a push past the psychologically-significant level of resistance USD/JPY is eying the 102.70 mark.
USD/JPY: Hammer Foreshadowed Recovery
USD/JPY Showing Forex Trading Upside Momentum – May 13, 2014
On its 4-hour time frame, USD/JPY is showing enough forex trading upside momentum after bouncing off the bottom of the rising channel. The pair has formed short-term double bottoms and is moving on to making a larger set on the same forex trading time frame.
With that, USD/JPY's next rally resistance appears to be located at the 103.00 major psychological level, which might also serve as the neckline for the double bottom on the 4-hour chart. A break above this area of interest could mean a move up to the 104.00 major psychological resistance, which is at the top of the ascending channel.
USD/JPY Forex Trading Outlook
The US economy is set to print its retail sales data in today's New York trading session. Market watchers are expecting to see a 0.6% gain in headline consumer spending and a 0.5% increase in core retail sales, both slightly slower gains compared to the previous month's figures.
Take note though that the US economy has shown stronger than expected jobs gains in April, which could increase the odds of seeing higher than expected increases in retail sales. As for Japan, there have been a few weak spots in the economy and the recently implemented sales tax hike could weigh on growth later on.
The Fed is on track with its taper plan, eventually looking to hike interest rates once clearer signs of growth are seen. The BOJ, on the other hand, is more inclined to ease given their ongoing battle with deflation and potentially weak spending. With that, the path of least resistance for this forex trading pair is to the upside, in line with the trend channel that is holding.
2014-05-13 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Retail Sales]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
USD - Retail Sales = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level
==========
U.S. Retail Sales Rise Less Than Expected In April
After reporting a sharp increase in U.S. retail sales in the previous month, the Commerce Department released a report on Tuesday showing that retail sales inched up by less than expected in the month of April.
The report said retail sales edged up by 0.1 percent in April following an upwardly revised 1.5 percent jump in March.
Economists had expected sales to rise by about 0.4 percent compared to the 1.1 percent growth originally reported for the previous month.
Excluding an increase in sales by motor vehicle and parts dealers, retail sales came in unchanged in April compared to a 1.0 percent increase in March. Ex-auto sales had been expected to climb by 0.6 percent.
EUR/USD – Euro Weakens As German Economic Sentiment Slips
EUR/USD has softened on Tuesday, as the pair has finally broken out from its rangebound trading. In the European session, the pair has dipped close to the 1.37 line. The euro has reacted negatively to a dismal German ZEW Economic Sentiment, as the key indicator dropped to a 16-month low. Eurozone Economic Sentiment followed suit with a soft reading in April. In the US, today’s highlights are Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales. Strong numbers would point to increased consumer spending and could lift the dollar further against the euro.
The first Eurozone releases of the week were anything but impressive. German ZEW Economic Sentiment, a key indicator, weakened badly in April, dropping to 33.1 points. This was well off the estimate of 41.3 and its worst showing since December 2012. The Eurozone release followed suit, dropping to 55.2 points, compared to an estimate of 63.5 points. These indicators are based on a survey of institutional investors and analysts, and the weak numbers point to increasing concern about the Eurozone and German economies.
The ECB held its policy meeting last Thursday, and the euro took traders and investors on a wild ride in both directions. Mario Draghi took note of worrying inflation indicators, saying that food and energy prices, the strong euro and weak domestic demand were all factors in weak inflation which has engulfed the Eurozone. He then surprised the markets by adding that the Bank would be comfortable taking action in June, after re-examining inflation and growth forecasts in June. This is the clearest sign in months that the ECB is prepared to take action, and a reaction from the market was quick to follow, with the euro suffering sharp losses after coming within a few pips of the key 1.40 line. Draghi added that the ECB would continue to monitor exchange rates. Many analysts are of the view that the "line in the sand" for the ECB is the 1.40 level, and if the euro rebounds and moves above this line, it's more than likely that the ECB will take action to reign in the high-flying currency.
There were no surprises from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen last week, who gave a cautious thumbs-up to the economic recovery in testimony before Congress. Yellen said that the US economy has improved, but noted two sore spots - the employment market and inflation which remains below the Fed's target of 2%. Yellen stated that she therefore expects that low interest rate levels will continue to stay low for a "considerable time". Yellen has stated previously that slack remains in the economy, and the Fed is expected to proceed carefully with future tapers to its QE scheme. Since December, the Fed has trimmed the asset-purchase program by almost half, cutting it to $45 billion each month.
EUR/USD Technical
Further levels in both directions:
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What is PAMM?
angevoyageur, 2013.10.01 23:06
What is a PAMM?
Trading the News: Bank of England Inflation Report (based on dailyfx article)
The Bank of England’s (BoE) Inflation Report may generate fresh highs in the GBP/USD should the central bank show a greater willingness to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.
What’s Expected:
Why Is This Event Important:
The fresh developments coming out of BoE may boost interest rate expectations should the central bank raise its growth and inflation forecast, and Governor Mark Carney may do little to halt the ongoing appreciation in the British Pound as it helps the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to deliver price stability in the U.K.
Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario
Sticky price growth paired with the ongoing improvement in the U.K. labor market may prompt the BoE to adopt a more hawkish tone for monetary policy, and the GBP/USD may continue to extend the advance from earlier this year should we see a growing number of central bank officials show a greater willingness to raise the benchmark interest rate later this year.
Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario
However, efforts to cool the housing market may limit the BoE’s scope to normalize monetary policy in 2014 as the central bank continues to highlight the persistent slack in the real economy, and the British Pound may face a larger correction in the days ahead should the committee further delay its exit strategy.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish GBP Trade: BoE Adopts More Hawkish Tone- Presents More Detailed Exit Strategy
- Need green, five-minute candle following an upbeat statement to favor a long British Pound trade
- If reaction favors buying British Pound, long GBP/USD with two separate position
- Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; need at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit
Bearish GBP Trade: BoE Monetary Policy Report Drags on Interest Rate Expectations- Need red, five-minute candle to consider a short GBP/USD trade
- Implement same setup as the bullish British Pound trade, just in the opposite direction
Potential Price Targets For The ReleaseGBP/USD Daily
February 2014 Bank of England Inflation Report
The BoE inflation report is likely to spur volatility in GBP crosses, especially in the context of the current situation with rate expectations. At the last release, Carney said that the BoE sees further rate increases as gradual and limited. At the release we saw the Pound rally as comments indicated that the central bank saw rate increases, although gradual, sooner rather than later. Since then we have seen the appreciating Pound help cap higher inflation and any further indication that expectations have been lowered may weigh negatively on GBP crosses.
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NZDUSD Technical Analysis (adapted from dailyfx article)
- NZD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
- Support: 0.8607 (23.6% Fib ret.), 0.8500-13 (38.2% Fib ret., Oct 22 close)
- Resistance: 0.8745 (Apr 10 high)
The New Zealand may be setting a double top against its US namesake after prices put in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below resistance at 0.8745, the April 10 high. Near-term support is at 0.8607, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. A daily close below this barrier exposes the 0.8500-13 area, marked by the 38.2% level and the October 22 close, followed by the 0.88 figure.Prices are too close to relevant support to justify a short position from a risk/reward perspective. We will remain on the sidelines for now, waiting for a more actionable trade setup to present itself.