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newdigital, 2014.05.20 07:30
Trading the News: U.K. Consumer Price Index (based on dailyfx article)
A marked rebound in the U.K.’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) may pave the
way for fresh highs in the GBP/USD as it puts increased pressure on the
Bank of England (BoE) to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than
What’s Expected:Why Is This Event Important:
Indeed, the BoE Minutes may reveal a growing dissent within the Monetary
Policy Committee (MPC) as U.K. officials anticipate a stronger recovery
in 2014, and heightening price pressures may boost the bullish
sentiment surrounding the British Pound as it spurs a more material
shift in the policy outlook.The ongoing pickup in household sentiment along with the resilience in
retail sales may push U.K. firms to ramp up consumer prices, and a sharp
uptick in the headline reading for inflation should foster a bullish
reaction in the GBP/USD as it fuels interest rate expectations.
Nevertheless, efforts to cool the house paired with the persistent slack
in the real economy may continue to dampen the outlook for price
growth, and a dismal CPI print may generate a larger correction in the
GBP/USD as market participants scale back bets of seeing higher
borrowing costs ahead of schedule.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish GBP Trade: U.K. CPI Climbs 1.7% or Higher
GBPUSD M5 : 60 pips price movement by GBP - CPI news event
U.K. consumer prices increased an annualized 1.6% in March after
expanding 1.7% the month prior, while the core rate of inflation grew
1.6% during the same period to match the slowest pace of growth for
2014. Despite the slowdown, the in-line CPI prints pushed the GBP/USD
back above the 1.7000, with the pair ending the day at 1.6723.
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GBPUSD, M5, 2014.05.20
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GBPUSD M5 : 34 pips price movement by GBPUSD - CPI news event
newdigital, 2014.05.21 09:51
2014-05-21 06:30 GMT (or 08:30 MQ MT5 time) | [JPY - BOJ Press Conference]
JPY BOJ Press Conference = It's among the primary methods the BOJ uses to communicate with
investors regarding monetary policy. It covers the factors that
affected the most recent interest rate decision, the overall economic
outlook, inflation, and clues regarding future monetary policy
Yep, the lad’s still at it
USDJPY, M5, 2014.05.21
USDJPY M5 : 36 pips price movement by JPY - BOJ Press Conference news event
newdigital, 2014.05.21 09:34
Trading the News: Bank of England Minutes
The Bank of England Minutes may generate a more meaningful advance in
the GBP/USD should we see a growing number of central bank officials
show a greater willingness to normalize monetary policy sooner rather
Why Is This Event Important:
The policy statement may show a growing dissent within the BoE as the
fundamental developments coming out of the U.K. raise the prospects for a
stronger recovery, and the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric may
pave the way for fresh highs in the GBP/USD should the committee adopt a
more hawkish tone for monetary policy.
Sticky price pressures paired with the ongoing pickup in private sector
activity may put increased pressure on the BoE to raise the benchmark
interest rate ahead of schedule, and the GBP/USD may continue to carve
higher highs & higher lows in the second-half of the year as the
central bank moves away from its easing cycle.
However, the persistent slack in the real economy may keep the BoE on
the sidelines as Governor Mark Carney retains a cautious outlook for the
region, and the GBP/USD may face a larger correction in the days ahead
should the policy statement drag on interest rate expectations.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish GBP Trade: BoE Shows Greater Willingness to Normalize Policy
The BoE voted unanimously to retain its current policy in April as the
central bank sees a stronger recovery in 2014, but the British Pound
failed to benefit from the meeting minutes as the MPC talked down the
threat for inflation. In turn, the GBP/USD slipped back below the 1.6800
handle, with the pair trailing lower throughout the North American
trade to end the day at 1.6779.
GBPUSD, M5, 2014.05.21
GBPUSD M5 : 34 pips price movement by GBP - Bank of England Minutes news event
newdigital, 2014.05.22 11:10
2014-05-22 08:30 GMT (or 10:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - GDP]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
GBP - GDP = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy
U.K. Consumers Drive Recovery as Growth Accelerates to 0.8%
U.K. consumers were the driving force behind Britain’s economic growth
at the start of the year, continuing a trend after they led the recovery
Consumer spending rose 0.8 percent in the first quarter, a 10th straight
increase, adding 0.5 percentage point to gross domestic product. The
economy grew 0.8 percent in the period, unrevised from an initial
estimate, the Office for National Statistics said.
Britain’s recovery over the past year has left GDP just 0.6 percent
below where it was at its peak in the first quarter of 2008. The
improving economy was underscored by data yesterday showing a faster
than forecast increase in retail sales in April.
The brighter outlook is also having an impact within the Bank of
England, where some policy makers are moving closer to calling for an
interest-rate increase. Minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee’s most
recent meeting, published yesterday, showed the argument for higher
rates is becoming “more balanced” for some of the panel.
While the outlook is improving and data indicates a squeeze on consumers
is easing, Prime Minister David Cameron’s Conservative Party trails the
opposition Labour party in polls. The Tories are expected to come third
behind Labour and UKIP in European elections being held today.
Exports fell 1 percent in the quarter and imports dropped 1.1 percent,
leaving net trade to have zero impact on GDP, today’s report showed.
Government spending rose 0.1 percent and business investment increased
2.7 percent. Gross fixed capital formation added 0.3 percentage point to
First-quarter production growth was revised down to 0.7 percent from 0.8
percent in the initial GDP release. Growth in services, the largest
part of the economy, was unchanged at 0.9 percent, and construction
growth was raised to 0.6 percent from 0.3 percent. From a year earlier,
the economy grew 3.1 percent, the ONS said, unrevised from the initial
estimate. That’s the biggest annual increase since the fourth quarter of
GBPUSD, M5, 2014.05.22
GBPUSD M5 : 45 pips price movement by GBP - GDP news event
newdigital, 2014.05.22 16:10
USD/JPY rebounds sharply from just above YTD low
USD/JPY Strategy: Like the short side while below 102.35
newdigital, 2014.05.29 07:35
2014-05-29 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Redbook index]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
AUD - Private Capital Expenditure = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of new capital expenditures made by private businesses. It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses are quickly
affected by market conditions, and changes in their investment levels
can be an early signal of future economic activity such as hiring,
spending, and earnings
Australia Capital Expenditure Dips 4.2% In Q1
Total new capital expenditure in Australia was down a seasonally
adjusted 4.2 percent on quarter in the first quarter of 2014, the
Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - coming in at A$37.076
That missed forecasts for a decline of 1.9 percent following the 5.2 percent drop in the fourth quarter.
On a yearly basis, total new capital expenditures were down 5.0 percent.
Capex for buildings and structures tumbled 7.4 percent on quarter and 2.5 percent on year to A$24.524 billion.
Capex for equipment, plant and machinery added 2.8 percent on quarter but dropped 9.6 percent on year to A$12.552 billion.
AUDUSD, M5, 2014.05.29
AUDUSD M5 : 54 pips price movement by AUD - Private Capital Expenditure news event
newdigital, 2014.05.30 10:28
Trading the News: Canada Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (based on dailyfx article)
Canada’s 1Q GDP report may spur a meaningful rebound in the USD/CAD should we see a marked slowdown in the growth rate.
What’s Expected:Why Is This Event Important:
A dismal GDP report may instill a bearish outlook for the Canadian
dollar as Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Stephen Poloz keeps the door
open to further reduce the benchmark interest rate, and the central bank
head may continue to endorse a dovish outlook for monetary policy amid
the persistent slack in the real economy.
The slowdown in private sector consumption along with the ongoing
weakness in the labor market may spur a lackluster GDP print, and a
dismal development may spur a bullish breakout in the USD/CAD as it
raises bets for a BoC rate cut.Nevertheless, the ongoing expansion in the housing market paired with
the rebound in building activity may produce another GDP reading above
2.0%, and a better-than-expected print may generate a further decline in
the USD/CAD as the pair remains the bearish trend carried over from
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bearish CAD Trade: Growth Rate Slips Below 2.0%
Impact that the Canada GDP report has had on CAD during the last quarter
USDCAD M5 : 46 pips price movement by CAD - GDP news event
The Canadian economy grew at a faster pace during the last three-months
of 2013, with the growth rising another 2.9% following the 2.7% advance
in the third-quarter, and the data print may encourage an improved
outlook for the Canadian dollar as it raises the outlook for growth and
inflation. The USD/CAD slipped back below the 1.1100 handle following
the stronger-than-expected GDP print, with the pair ending the day at
USDCAD, M5, 2014.05.30
USDCAD M5 : 27 pips price movement by CAD - GDP news event
newdigital, 2014.06.02 09:26
2014-06-02 07:00 GMT (or 09:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Fed's Evans Speech]
USD - Fed's Evans Speech = Charles L. Evans is the ninth president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
In that capacity, he serves on the Federal Open Market Committee
(FOMC), the Federal Reserve System's monetary policy-making body.
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans provided his
perspective on monetary policy at a macroeconomics workshop in Turkey.
USDTRY, M5, 2014.06.02
USDTRY M5 : 72 pips price movement by USD - Fed's Evans Speech news event
newdigital, 2014.06.05 08:28
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for CNY in our case)
[CNY - HSBC Services PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry. It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly
to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the
most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy
China Services PMI Slides To 50.7 In May- HSBC
Activity in China's services sectors continued to expand in May,
albeit at a slower pace, the latest survey from HSBC and Markit
Economics revealed on Thursday.
The services PMI saw a score of 50.7 last month, the bank said - down from 51.4 in April.
The composite PMI climbed into expansion at 50.2 in May - up from the revised 49.5 in April (originally 49.4).
A reading above 50 signals expansion in a sector, while a score below means contraction.
NZDUSD, M5, 2014.06.05
NZDUSD M5 : 12 pips price movement by CNY - HSBC Services PMI news event