Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 85
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newdigital, 2014.03.13 08:16
Trading the News: U.S. Retail Sales (based on dailyfx article)
What’s Expected:
Time of release: 03/13/2014 12:30 GMT, 8:30 EDT
Primary Pair Impact: EURUSD
Expected: 0.2%
Previous: -0.4%
Forecast: -0.2% to 0.4%
Why Is This Event Important:
With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) widely expected to discuss another $10B taper at the March 19 meeting, a pickup in private sector consumption may put increased pressure on the central bank to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later, but we may see Fed Chair Janet Yellen preserve the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) for an extended period of time in an effort to curtail the ongoing slack in the real economy.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: Household Spending Increases 0.2% or Greater
- Need to see red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on EURUSD
- If market reaction favors a long dollar trade, sell EURUSD with two separate position
- Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit
Bearish USD Trade: Retail Sales DisappointsPotential Price Targets For The Release
January 2014 U.S. Retail Sales :
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EURUSD, M5, 2014.03.13
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EURUSD M5 : 12 pips price movement by USD - Retail Sales news event
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newdigital, 2014.03.18 06:28
2013-03-18 00:30 GMT (or 01:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes]
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RBA Minutes: May Keep Rates Steady For 'Some Time'
The members of the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy board said that the RBA may well keep its benchmark interest rate steady indefinitely, minutes from the central bank's March 4 meeting revealed on Tuesday.
The members said that the benchmark could be maintained for "some time" as long as it was warranted by the economic conditions.
"At recent meetings, the board had judged that it was prudent to leave the cash rate unchanged, while noting that the cash rate could remain at its current level for some time if the economy was to evolve broadly as expected," the minutes said.
The board said that the lower exchange rate for the Australian dollar was helping the economy and likely would continue to do so.
At the meeting, the RBA maintained its main cash rate at a record low 2.50 percent for a seventh successive month, and indicated a period of stability in monetary policy, as inflation pressures remained high.
"The pace of growth of Australia's major trading partners appeared to have remained around average. Domestically, timely indicators were consistent with some improvement in economic conditions over recent months, and there were further signs that the expansionary setting of monetary policy was having the desired effects. Indicators had been generally positive for consumption, housing investment, business conditions and exports," the minutes said.
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AUDUSD, M5, 2014.03.18
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AUDUSD M5 : +18/-19 price range movement by AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes news event
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newdigital, 2014.03.19 06:32
Trading the News: U.K. Jobless Claims Change (based on dailyfx article)
- U.K. Jobless Claims to Contract for Sixteen-Consecutive Month
- ILO Unemployment Rate to Hold at 7.2% for Second Month
Another 25.0K decline in U.K. Jobless Claims may prompt a meaningful rebound in the GBPUSD as it raises the Bank of England’s (BoE) scope to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.Why Is This Event Important:
However, the BoE Minutes may limit the market reaction should the central bank shift its tone for monetary policy, and the British Pound may face a larger correction over the near-term if the developments coming out of the U.K. drag on interest rate expectations.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish GBP Trade: Jobless Claims Decline 25.0K+, Unemployment Falls Back to 7.1%
- Need green, five-minute candle following the release to consider a long British Pound trade
- If market reaction favors buying sterling, long GBPUSD with two separate position
- Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit
Bearish GBP Trade: U.K. Job Growth DisappointsPotential Price Targets For The Rate Decision
GBPUSD M5 : 100 pips price movement by GBP - Claimant Count Change news event :
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GBPUSD, M5, 2014.03.19
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GBPUSD M5 : 19 pips price movement by Claimant Count Change news event
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newdigital, 2014.03.20 06:52
An Introducation to Trading Strategy (based on dailyfx article)
Each trader must develop their own unique trading style. Normally traders will choose a style based off of the times they trade and the assets the select for trading. Ultimately these strategies will fall into one of three categories. Today we will briefly review the basis of range, trend, and breakout trading and what traders implementing these strategies look for.
Range Trading Strategies
First, range traders use technical analysis to trade sideways moving markets. This is done by identifying price trading horizontally between two areas of support and resistance. Once these values are found, traders can begin to trade between them. Normally ranges are known to occur during times during of low volatility.
The benefit of trading ranging markets is that traders can take a directionless trading strategy. This means range traders will look to initiate both buy orders (at support) and sell positions (as price reaches resistance). As well risk can be clearly defined to exit ranging positions in the event of a price breakout.
Breakout Strategies
A Price breakout occurs when price action either rises above resistance or drops below support. Normally a breakout is preceded by a consolidating pattern or sideways movements such as a range mentioned above. Savy traders that are aware of these conditions can quickly adapt their trading plan and be prepared to take advantage of the next market move with a use of an entry order while waiting for a breakout.
The advantage of this style of trading is that breakout t traders have the ability to trade with entry orders. This means even if you are not in front of your computer, entries can be set to enter the market if price breaches a certain level. The idea is to enter the market on a surge in price in the direction of market momentum. In the event that price continues to consolidate these entry orders can easily be deleted and traders may then look for trades elsewhere.
The Retracement Strategies
Lastly, trend traders look to take advantage of strong directional movements in the market. Trading a retracement is probably one of the most popular methods of doing so. Retracements traders will wait patiently for a pullback in the trend and then enter into the market.
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newdigital, 2014.03.20 07:24
2013-03-19 21:45 GMT (or 22:45 MQ MT5 time) | [NZD - GDP]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for NZD in our case)
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New Zealand GDP Rises 0.9% On Quarter
New Zealand's gross domestic product added 0.9 percent on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2013, Statistics New Zealand said on Thursday.
That was in line with expectations and slowing from 1.4 percent in the third quarter.
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NZDUSD, M5, 2014.03.20
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NZDUSD M5 : 33 pips price movement by NZD - GDP news event
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newdigital, 2014.03.24 07:22
2013-03-24 01:45 GMT (or 02:45 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - Flash Manufacturing PMI]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for CNY in our case)
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China Manufacturing PMI Hits Eight-Month Low - HSBC
China's manufacturing sector fell deeper into contraction in March, the latest flash PMI from HSBC and Markit Economics revealed on Monday. The index came in with a seasonally adjusted score of 48.1, touching an eight-month low.
The headline figure is down from 48.5 in February, and it was well shy of forecasts for 48.7 - and it moves the index further below the mark of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.
Among the key components of the survey, the output index sank to 47.3 from 48.8 in the previous month - hitting an 18-month low.
Among other components, new orders, work backlogs, output prices, input prices and quantity of purchases all continued to contract at an accelerating rate.
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NZDUSD, M5, 2014.03.24
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NZDUSD M5 : 16 pips price movement by CNY - Flash Manufacturing PMI news event
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newdigital, 2014.03.28 07:17
NZDUSD Technical Analysis (based on dailyfx article)
- NZD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
- Support: 0.8649 (23.6% Fib exp.)
- Resistance: 0.8689 (0.0% Fib exp.)
New Zealand Dollar pushed aggressively higher against its US counterpart to test resistance at 0.8675, the April 2013 swing high. A break above this barrier aims for the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 0.8725. Alternatively, a reversal below the 23.6% level at 0.8639 targets a rising trend line set from February, now at 0.8570.Negative RSI divergence warns of a possible turn lower ahead but confirmation is lacking, suggesting a short trade is premature. On the other hand, entering long with prices squarely at resistance is unattractive from a risk/reward perspective. We will continue to stand aside for now.
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newdigital, 2014.03.30 19:55
Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of March 24th through March 28thThe following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of March 24th through March 28th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.
Monday, March 24th
- 2:45am CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI 48.1 versus 48.1 expected. 9:00am EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI 51.9 versus 49.8 expected. The currency rose.
- 9:00am EUR French Flash Services PMI 51.4 versus 47.9 expected. The currency rose.
- 9:30am EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI 53.8 versus 54.7 expected. The currency rose.
- 9:30am EUR German Flash Services PMI 54.0 versus 55.8 expected. The currency rose.
- 10:00am EUR EZ Flash Manufacturing PMI 53.0 versus 53.2 expected. The currency rose.
- 10:00am EUR EZ Flash Services PMI 52.4 versus 52.6 expected. The currency rose.
- 12:00pm EUR German Buba Monthly Report noted that, "The global economy progressively improved during 2013 after getting off to a slow start. In the final quarter of 2013, the world economy probably just about maintained the moderate pace of growth it had generated up to then." The currency rose.
- 2:45pm USD Flash Manufacturing PMI 55.5 versus 56.6 expected. The currency fell.
- All Day ALL G7 Meetings: German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that, “As long as the political environment for the G8 is not at hand, as is the case at the moment, there is no G8 – neither as a concrete summit meeting or even as a format for meetings”.
- 5:30pm CAD Governing Council Member Lane said that, "Financial benchmarks are used in a variety of contracts to specify what, or how much money, is to be delivered on particular dates. One example is floating - rate debt, where the borrower pays the lender an amount of interest based on a benchmark that varies from one period to another according to a selected measure of interest rates." The currency rose.
Tuesday, March 25th- 5:45am AUD RBA Deputy Governor Lowe said that, "In my own view, the internationalisation of the renminbi (RMB) – and the changes that accompany it – could ultimately prove to be as transformative for global capital markets as was the earlier opening up of China's borders for the global trading system. Even if this turns out to be only half correct, then we need to better understand the process of internationalisation of the RMB, including the pitfalls and the opportunities." The currency rose.
- 10:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate 110.7 versus 110.9 expected. The currency fell.
- 10:30am GBP CPI 1.7% versus 1.7% expected. The currency rose.
- 10:30am GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals 47.6K versus 50.0K expected. The currency rose.
- 10:30am GBP PPI Input -0.4%versus 0.4% expected. The currency rose.
- 10:30am GBP RPI 2.7%versus 2.6% expected. The currency rose.
- 12:00pm GBP CBI Realized Sales 13 versus 30 expected. The currency rose.
- 2:00pm USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI 13.2%versus 13.3% expected. The currency rose.
- 3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence 82.3 versus 78.7 expected. The currency rose.
- 3:00pm USD New Home Sales 440K versus 447K expected. The currency rose.
- 11:30pm AUD RBA Deputy Governor Lowe said that, "The relatively high reliance of Australian issuers on the offshore market is evident in the data on the composition of corporate bonds outstanding. Currently, bonds that were issued offshore account for around 80 per cent of the outstanding value of bonds issued by Australian-based corporations. A decade ago, this figure was considerably lower at around 50 per cent. The offshore market is favoured by companies that want to raise foreign currency funding as a natural hedge against their foreign currency revenue." The currency rose.
Wednesday, March 26th- 12:00am USD FOMC Member Plosser said that, "Tonight I would like to focus on a particular aspect of current monetary policy that has been a source of much discussion and debate — forward guidance — that is, the practice of providing information on the way monetary policy is likely to evolve in the future. Forward guidance has taken on greater significance since the FOMC lowered the target federal funds rate to essentially zero more than five years ago. Facing this zero lower bound constraint on its primary policy instrument, the FOMC has been attempting to implement monetary policy, in part, by influencing expectations of future policy." The currency rose.
- 1:30am AUD RBA Financial Stability Review noted that, "Indicators of distress in the business sector, such as failures and non-performing loans, generally continued to ease through 2013 and conditions appear to have improved. The period of deleveraging that took place following the financial crisis appear to have run its course, though the overall need for external funding by businesses, including demand for credit, remains modest." The currency rose.
- 7:00am AUD RBA Governor Stevens said that, "Overall, in 2014 economic global growth is thought likely by major forecasters to be a bit higher than in 2013, and at about average pace. More of the growth is coming from the advanced countries, and proportionately not quite so much from the emerging ones. That is probably a welcome re-balancing in some respects, after the weakness of the advanced countries in recent years." The currency rose.
- 8:00am EUR GfK German Consumer Climate 8.5 versus 8.5 expected. The currency fell.
- 1:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders 0.2%versus 0.3% expected. The currency rose.
- 1:30pm USD Durable Goods Orders 2.2%versus 1.1% expected. The currency rose.
- 3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 6.6M versus last 5.9M expected. The currency rose.
- 10:45pm NZD Trade Balance 818M versus 600M expected. The currency rose.
Thursday, March 27th- 10:00am EUR M3 Money Supply 1.3%versus 1.3% expected. The currency fell.
- 10:00am EUR Private Loans -2.2% versus -2.1% expected. The currency fell.
- 10:30am GBP Retail Sales 1.7%versus 0.5% expected. The currency rose.
- 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 311K versus 326K expected. The currency rose.
- 1:30pm USD FOMC Member Pianalto said that, "The Federal Reserve has a number of responsibilities, many of which you may not be familiar with. For example, the Federal Reserve serves as the lender of last resort. Federal Reserve Banks can make loans to address financial panics, and we certainly made use of that power during the financial crisis in 2008. We supervise the banking system. We work to ensure an accessible, efficient, and secure US payments system, and we serve as the federal government’s bank. Our community development efforts support the economic growth of low- and moderate-income neighborhoods across the country." The currency rose.
- 1:30pm USD Final GDP 2.6% versus 2.7% expected. The currency rose.
- 3:00pm USD Pending Home Sales -0.8% versus 0.2% expected. The currency rose.
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newdigital, 2014.03.30 13:51
S&P 500 forecast for the week of March 31, 2014, Technical AnalysisThe S&P 500 as you can see fell during a large portion of the week, but found enough support at the 1840 level to turn things back around. Nonetheless, we are essentially consolidating at elevated levels, and a move above the 1880 level would more than likely signal that the market is ready to head to the 2000 handle. We think that it will eventually happen, but we could get a little bit of a pullback in the meantime. We see the 1780 level as a bit of a “floor” in this market, so as long as we stay above there we are “buy only.”
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newdigital, 2014.04.01 07:31
S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices remain in consolidation mode above support is in the 1847.90-53.00 area, marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, the December 31 close, and the bottom of an emerging Triangle chart formation. A break downward targets the 38.2% level at 1831.00. Alternatively, a push above downward-sloping resistance at 1871.10 aims for the March 7 high at 1888.60.