Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 92

Sergey Golubev
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newdigital, 2014.07.17 20:48

Trading the News: Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI)

  • Canada Headline Inflation to Hold at 2.3%- Fastest Pace of growth Since 2012.
  • Core Consumer Price Index to Expand 1.7% for Second Straight Month.
Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) may generate a key turn in the USD/CAD as heightening price pressures puts increased pressure on the Bank of Canada (BoC) to adopt a more hawkish tone for monetary policy.

What’s Expected:



Why Is This Event Important:

Even though BoC Governor Stephen Poloz talked down the risk for inflation, sticky prices in Canada may continue to prop up interest rate expectations as the central bank adopts a more balanced view for the economy.

The pickup in private sector consumption may encourage faster price growth in Canada as the BoC looks to achieve a ‘soft landing’ in the housing market, and a stronger-than-expected CPI print may spur a more material shift in the policy outlook as the central bank softens its dovish tune.

Nevertheless, the ongoing slack in the real economy may continue to dampen the outlook for inflation, and an unexpected slowdown in price growth may generate a further advance in the USD/CAD as it drags on interest rate expectations.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish CAD Trade: Canada CPI Rises an Annulized 2.3% or Higher
  • Need red, five-minute candle following the CPI report to consider short USD/CAD entry
  • If the market reaction favors a bullish Canadian dollar trade, establish short with two position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from cost; use at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit
Bearish CAD Trade: Headline Reading for Inflation Disappoints
  • Need green, five-minute candle following the release to look at a long USD/CAD trade
  • Carry out the same setup as the bullish loonie trade, just in the opposite direction
Potential Price Targets For The Release

USD/CAD Daily


  • Despite bullish break in RSI, downside remains favored given series of lower highs & lows.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.0820 (61.8% retracement) to 1.0850 (38.2% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 1.0580 (61.8% retracement) to 1.0600 (61.8% retracement)
Impact that the Canada CPI report has had on CAD during the last month

Period Data Released Survey Actual Pips Change
(1 Hour post event )
Pips Change
(End of Day post event)
MAY
2014
06/20/2014 12:30 GMT 2.0% 2.3% -55 -63
May 2014 Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI)



The headline reading for Canada inflation climbed to an annualized 2.3% in May to mark the fastest pace of growth since February 2011, while the core CPI increased 1.7% during the same period amid forecasts for a 1.5% print. The stronger-than-expected prints spurred a bullish reaction in the Canadian dollar, with the USD/CAD slipping below the 1.0800 handle, and the pair traded lower throughout the North American trade as the pair ended the day at 1.0751.


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USDCAD, M5, 2014.07.18

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

USDCAD M5 : 46 pips price movement by CAD - CPI news event

USDCAD, M5, 2014.07.18, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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newdigital, 2014.07.22 10:44

Trading the News: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) (based on dailyfx article)

  • U.S. Consumer Price Index to Hold at 2.1% for Second Month.
  • Core Inflation to Retain Fastest Pace of Growth Since October 2012.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may spur a bullish reaction in the U.S. dollar (bearish EUR/USD) should the report undermine the Fed’s dovish outlook for monetary policy.

What’s Expected:



Why Is This Event Important:

Sticky price growth in the world’s largest economy may heighten the appeal of the greenback as it puts increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to move away from its easing cycle, and the next policy meeting on July 30 may generate an improved outlook for the reserve currency should a growing number of central bank officials show a greater willingness to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.

Higher input costs along with the pickup in wage growth may generate another stronger-than-expected inflation print, and an unexpected uptick in the CPI may fuel a near-term rally in the USD as it boosts interest rate expectations.

However, the persist slack in the real economy paired with the slowdown in private sector consumption may drag on price growth, and a weak inflation print may heighten the bearish sentiment surrounding the greenback as it gives the Fed greater scope to retain its highly accommodative policy stance for an extended period of time.

How To Trade This Event Risk


Bullish USD Trade: Headline Reading for Inflation Climbs 2.1% or Greater

  • Need to see red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on EURUSD
  • If market reaction favors a long dollar trade, sell EURUSD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit
Bearish USD Trade: U.S. CPI Falls Short of Market Forecast
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EURUSD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction
Potential Price Targets For The Release

EUR/USD Daily


  • Remains at Risk for a Lower-Low as Downward Trending Channel Takes Shape
  • Interim Resistance: 1.3650 (78.6% expansion) to 1.3670 (61.8% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 1.3490 (50.0% retracement) to 1.3500 Pivot
Impact that the U.S. CPI report has had on EUR/USD during the last release

PeriodData ReleasedEstimateActualPips Change
(1 Hour post event )
Pips Change
(End of Day post event)
MAY
2014
06/17/2014 12:30 GMT 2.0% 2.1% -23 -23

May 2014 U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI)

EURUSD M5 : 33 pips price movement by USD - CPI news event



The headline reading for U.S. inflation unexpectedly climbed to an annualized 2.1% in May to mark the fastest pace of growth since October 2011, while the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) advance to 2.0% amid forecasts for 1.9% print. The stronger-than-expected print sparked a bullish reaction in the reserve currency, with the EUR/USD slipping below the 1.3550 region, and the greenback retained the gains throughout the North American session as the pair ended the day at 1.3545.


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AUDUSD, M5, 2014.07.22

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AUDUSD M5 : 43 pips price movement by USD - CPI news event

AUDUSD, M5, 2014.07.22, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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newdigital, 2014.07.24 15:20

2014-07-24 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Unemployment Claims]

if actual < forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[EUR - Unemployment Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy.

Also Called = Jobless Claims, Initial Claims.

==========

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Show Unexpected Decrease

The European Union is stronger today because of U.K 's contribution to it, European Central Bank's Jens Weidmann said in his speech at the annual dinner of the German-British Chamber of Industry & Commerce.

"The European economy is more open and dynamic as a result of Britain's commitment to open and flexible markets - a position very much in tune with the Bundesbank's" he said.

The European Union, or EU, membership has also benefited Britain, he added.

"Half of its trade is with the European Union, and studies suggest that EU membership has boosted Britain's trade in goods with other EU countries by more than 50 %"

Stressing on the need for a single market, he said, "A lot of the potential inherent in our most important European catalyst for growth, the single market, is still untapped."

"Britain, in particular, with its advanced services sector stands to gain from dismantling the existing barriers to cross-border trade in services.", he said.

Also, the digital markets should be integrated into a single market, he added.

Talking about the vulnerabilities that will arise due to the integration , "a combination of this kind gives rise to a deficit bias, as it allows the costs of fiscal imprudence to be shifted partially on to others. An unsustainable fiscal situation in one country has repercussions for monetary union as a whole. You can compare this to what economists call the "tragedy of the commons".", he said.

"Just as overfishing creates negative externalities for other countries, excessive public debt harms the euro area as a whole. Excessive debt in one member state drives up longer-term interest rates for all euro-area countries."

"And second, each member state issues debt in a currency it cannot create. Hence, a high level of fiscal discipline is needed to ensure that solvency concerns do not spiral out of control." he added.

"establishing a sustainable fiscal framework and consolidating public budgets are only two of the numerous challenges facing the euro area in becoming more stable." he noted.

"Equally important is to correct macroeconomic imbalances - through the restoration of competitiveness in those countries that have fallen behind and through a further reduction of indebtedness in the private sector there."

Further work has to done with respect to financial regulation, not just in the euro area, but globally, Weidmann said.

"Some key objectives in this respect are: spelling out international standards on the loss-absorbing capacity of systemically important banks, achieving cross-border acceptance of a bank resolution, peer reviewing measures regulating the shadow banking sector and establishing saver derivative markets."

Stressing on the importance of Britian being a member of the euro area, he concluded, "If Britain continues to make its voice heard in Europe, I am confident that the Union will become more outward-looking, open and prosperous for that."


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GBPUSD, M5, 2014.07.24

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GBPUSD M5 : 22 pips price movement by USD - Unemployment Claims news event

GBPUSD, M5, 2014.07.24, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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newdigital, 2014.07.25 14:42

2014-07-25 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods. It's a leading indicator of production - rising purchase orders signal that manufacturers will increase activity as they work to fill the orders

==========

U.S. durable goods orders rebound, core capital goods rise

Orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods rose more than expected in June, pointing to momentum in the economy at the end of the second quarter.

The Commerce Department said on Friday durable goods orders increased 0.7 percent as demand increased from transportation to machinery and computers and electronic products.

Orders for durable goods, items ranging from toasters to aircraft that are meant to last three years or more, were revised to show a slightly bigger 1.0 percent fall in May.


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GBPUSD, M5, 2014.07.25

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GBPUSD M5 : 15 pips price movement by USD - Durable Goods Orders news event

GBPUSD, M5, 2014.07.25, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
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How to Start with Metatrader 5

newdigital, 2014.07.29 14:18

As many users want to make their technical/fundamental/any analysis so I have to explain about the rules how it should be going on this website.

1. Start your thread with your "technical/fundamental/any analysis/article". I mean - first post of your thread should be your content/your text/your article/your image/charts etc.

2. "External technical/fundamental/any analysis/article".

2.1. It is recommended to include "external analysis" in your thread.
2.2. BUT! All "external technical/fundamental/any analysis/articles" should be placed on this thread first: Press review
2.3. "External technical/fundamental/any analysis" should be placed with link to the source (in case the users want to go to their website to read whole the article).
2.4. To place any "external technical/fundamental/any analysis"  to your thread - use "to pocket" feature by doing the following:

press this link which is located below your post with "external analysis/article"


after that - press this button (in your thread) to post it (to your thread)


3. The thread with 1 or 2 posts is not the thread. Those are posts :)
If you open the thread so make sure that you are going to make/manage this thread for many posts (made by you or other members).

4. If you open the thread it means - you have something to post there - you will/should post on your thread without waiting for the members to join for posting :)

Sorry for complicated explanation.

-------------------

My example - this thread: EURUSD Technical Analysis 2014, 27.07 - 03.08: Bearish

The thread was started with my analysis (first post of the thread), all external analysis was uploaded to this thread Press review first and used from "to pocket" to be placed from this thread Press review to my thread here EURUSD Technical Analysis 2014, 27.07 - 03.08: Bearish

In this case - the members will understand and can compare my personal analysis with the analysis made by famous external sources.


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newdigital, 2014.07.30 06:58

2014-07-29 22:45 GMT (or 00:45 MQ MT5 time) | [NZD - Building Permits]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

NZD - Building Permits = Change in the number of new building approvals issued. It's a leading gauge of future construction activity because obtaining government approval is among the first steps in constructing a new building. Construction is important because it produces a wide-reaching ripple effect - for example, jobs are created for the construction workers, subcontractors and inspectors are hired, and various construction services are purchased by the builder

==========

New Zealand Building Permits Climb 3.5% In June

The total number of building consents issued in New Zealand gained a seasonally adjusted 3.5 percent on month in June, Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday - coming in at 1,950.

That follows the 4.6 percent decline in May.

Excluding permits for apartment construction (which totaled 197), building consents were up 2.9 percent.


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NZDUSD, M5, 2014.07.30

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NZDUSD M5 : 6 pips price movement by NZD - Building Permits news event

NZDUSD, M5, 2014.07.30, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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Press review

newdigital, 2014.07.30 09:54

Trading the News: U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (based on dailyfx article)

  • U.S. Economy to Grow 3.0%- Fastest Pace of Growth Since 3Q 2013.
  • Personal Consumption to Expand for 18-Consecutive Quarters.

The advance Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may heighten the appeal of the U.S. dollar as the world’s largest economy is expected to grow an annualized 3.0% in the second-quarter.

What’s Expected:



Why Is This Event Important:

A marked rebound in the growth rate may spark a greater dissent within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as a growing number of central bank officials scale back their dovish tone for monetary policy, and Chair Janet Yellen may come under increased pressure to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later as the outlook for growth and inflation improves.

The pickup in wage growth along with the ongoing improvement in the labor market may generate a better-than-expected GDP print, and a large uptick in the growth rate may generate a bullish reaction in the greenback (bearish EUR/USD) as it fuels interest rate expectations.

However, sticky inflation paired with the persistent slack in the housing market may weigh on the growth rate, and a disappointing GDP release may spur a near-term selloff in the reserve currency as it gives the Fed greater scope to retain its highly accommodative policy stance for an extended period of time.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish USD Trade: U.S. Economy Expands 3.0% or Greater

  • Need to see red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on EURUSD
  • If market reaction favors a long dollar trade, sell EURUSD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit
Bearish USD Trade: 2Q GDP Reading Disappoints
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EURUSD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction
Potential Price Targets For The Release

EUR/USD Daily


  • Despite oversold RSI signal, downside targets remain favored
  • Interim Resistance: 1.3650 (78.6% expansion) to 1.3670 (61.8% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 1.3370 (38.2% retracement) to 1.3380 (38.2% expansion)
Impact that the U.S. GDP report has had on EUR/USD during the last release

PeriodData ReleasedEstimateActualPips Change
(1 Hour post event )
Pips Change
(End of Day post event)
1Q A
2014
04/30/2014 12:30 GMT 1.2% 0.1% +12 +19
The U.S. economy grew a lackluster 0.1% in the first-quarter after expanding an annualized 2.6% during the last three-months of 2013, and the persistent slack in private sector activity may continue to cast a bearish outlook for the greenback as the Fed retains a dovish outlook for monetary policy. The dollar struggled to hold its ground following the dismal GDP print, with the EUR/USD climbing above the 1.3850 region, and the reserve currency struggled to hold its ground throughout the North American session as the pair ended the day at 1.3864.

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

NZDUSD, M5, 2014.07.30

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

NZDUSD M5 : 28 pips price movement by USD - GDP news event

NZDUSD, M5, 2014.07.30, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo



Sergey Golubev
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Press review

newdigital, 2014.08.01 11:36

Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) (based on dailyfx article)

  • U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) to Increase 200+K for Sixth Straight Month.
  • Would Mark Longest String of 200+K Prints Since 1997

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) are anticipated to increase another 231K in July, and a positive employment print may produce a further decline in the EUR/USD as it puts increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.

What’s Expected:



Why Is This Event Important:

The deviation in the policy outlook favors a bearish outlook for the EUR/USD as the European Central Bank (ECB) stands ready to implement more non-standard measures, and the NFP print may generate fresh 2014 lows in the euro-dollar should the release boost the interest rate outlook for the U.S.

The resilience in private consumption along with the marked rebound in economic activity may encourage firms to further expand their labor force, and a better-than-expected NFP print should produce a bullish reaction in the U.S. dollar as puts increased pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to move away from its zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP).

However, the downturn in business confidence along with the rise in planned job cuts may produce further headwinds for the U.S. labor market, and a dismal employment report may undermine the bullish sentiment surrounding the reserve currency as it raises the Fed’s scope to retain the highly accommodative policy stance for an extended period of time.

How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: NFPs Rises 231K+; Unemployment Holds at 6.1%

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on EUR/USD
  • If market reaction favors a long dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit
Bearish USD Trade: Employment Print Falls Short of Market Forecast
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction
Potential Price Targets For The Release
EUR/USD Daily


  • Remains at Risk for Further Decline as Long as RSI Holds Below 30
  • Interim Resistance: 1.3580 (23.6% expansion) to 1.3600 Pivot
  • Interim Support: 1.3300 Pivot to 1.3310 (78.6% expansion)
Impact that the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report has had on EUR/USD during the previous month

Period Data Released Estimate Actual Pips Change
(1 Hour post event )
Pips Change
(End of Day post event)
JUN 2014 7/03/2014 12:30 GMT 215K 288K -34 -34

June 2014 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

EURUSD M5 : 48 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event



AUDUSD M5 : 40 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event



The U.S. economy added another 288K jobs in June following a revised 224K advance the month prior, while the jobless rate unexpectedly narrowed to an annualized 6.1% from 6.3% in May. The better-than-expected NFP print propped up the greenback, with the EUR/USD slipping below the 1.3625 region, and the reserve currency retained the bullish reaction going into the end of the week as the pair closed at 1.3608.


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NZDUSD, M5, 2014.08.01

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

NZDUSD M5 : 60 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Payrolls news event

NZDUSD, M5, 2014.08.01, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo



jacobwhite08
5
jacobwhite08  
Thanks for this informative post! Unfortunately, poverty is one of the major concerns of the world’s population and nations worldwide. Surely, if unemployment is rising, it is a sign that the economy is in bad shape. The Bizzaro World, also known as Htrae (Earth in reverse) is a square planet that is populated by twisted types of Superman and his other DC universe friends. Some signs of economic health seem like they would make a good deal more sense on Htrae.
Economic indicators in the Bizzaro World - Part 1
Economic indicators in the Bizzaro World - Part 1
  • bryanh
  • personalmoneynetwork.com
Over the years, many strange economic indicators have been proposed by “experts” that read like they might be more accurate predictors in the Bizarro World. Also known as Htrae (Earth backwards), it is a cube-shaped planet populated by gonzo versions of Superman and other DC universe characters. Here are a few indicators of economic health that...
Sergey Golubev
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Press review

newdigital, 2014.08.07 17:09

2014-08-07 11:00 GMT (or 13:00 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - Official Bank Rate]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Official Bank Rate] = Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the BOE to other banks. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation - traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future.

==========

Bank Of England Holds Rates Steady As Expected

The Bank of England once again kept its key rate at a record low on Thursday, sticking to its forward guidance even as the strong pace of economic recovery has augmented speculation for a rate hike late this year.

The nine-member Monetary Policy Committee decided to keep its key bank rate unchanged at 0.50 percent and the asset purchase programme at GBP 375 billion.

With the strong economic recovery and unemployment falling more sharply than estimated, some members of the panel are likely to have favored a rate hike. The minutes of the previous meeting also signaled that some policymakers are getting closer to a rate hike call.

The current 0.50 interest rate is the lowest since the central bank was established in 1694 and it has heavily reduced the interest income of savers. The unconventional measures were announced during the financial crisis to shore up the economy.

At several instance BoE Chief Mark Carney said the interest rate will have to start rising to maintain price stability as the economy normalizes, but there is no pre-set timing for that action.

Today's decision may not have been unanimous and a rate hike this year cannot be ruled out, said Samuel Tombs, a senior UK economist at Capital Economics. Even so, the outlook of low inflation and sluggish wage growth suggests that interest rates will rise only gradually.

The minutes, due on August 20, will give insight into factors that compelled policymakers to call for an early action. James Knightley, an ING Bank NV economist said he would expect to see one, possibly two members of the MPC having voted for a rate hike at today's meeting.


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GBPUSD, M5, 2014.08.07

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

GBPUSD M5 : 12 pips price movement by GBP - Official Bank Rate news event

GBPUSD, M5, 2014.08.07, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo