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newdigital, 2014.07.17 20:48
Trading the News: Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Why Is This Event Important:
Even though BoC Governor Stephen Poloz talked down the risk for
inflation, sticky prices in Canada may continue to prop up interest rate
expectations as the central bank adopts a more balanced view for the
The pickup in private sector consumption may encourage faster price
growth in Canada as the BoC looks to achieve a ‘soft landing’ in the
housing market, and a stronger-than-expected CPI print may spur a more
material shift in the policy outlook as the central bank softens its
How To Trade This Event Risk
The headline reading for Canada inflation climbed to an annualized 2.3%
in May to mark the fastest pace of growth since February 2011, while the
core CPI increased 1.7% during the same period amid forecasts for a
1.5% print. The stronger-than-expected prints spurred a bullish reaction
in the Canadian dollar, with the USD/CAD slipping below the 1.0800
handle, and the pair traded lower throughout the North American trade as
the pair ended the day at 1.0751.
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
USDCAD, M5, 2014.07.18
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
USDCAD M5 : 46 pips price movement by CAD - CPI news event
newdigital, 2014.07.22 10:44
Trading the News: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) (based on dailyfx article)
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may spur a bullish reaction in the
U.S. dollar (bearish EUR/USD) should the report undermine the Fed’s
dovish outlook for monetary policy.
Sticky price growth in the world’s largest economy may heighten the
appeal of the greenback as it puts increased pressure on the Federal
Reserve to move away from its easing cycle, and the next policy meeting
on July 30 may generate an improved outlook for the reserve currency
should a growing number of central bank officials show a greater
willingness to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.
Higher input costs along with the pickup in wage growth may generate
another stronger-than-expected inflation print, and an unexpected uptick
in the CPI may fuel a near-term rally in the USD as it boosts interest
However, the persist slack in the real economy paired with the slowdown
in private sector consumption may drag on price growth, and a weak
inflation print may heighten the bearish sentiment surrounding the
greenback as it gives the Fed greater scope to retain its highly
accommodative policy stance for an extended period of time.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: Headline Reading for Inflation Climbs 2.1% or Greater
EURUSD M5 : 33 pips price movement by USD - CPI news event
The headline reading for U.S. inflation unexpectedly climbed to an
annualized 2.1% in May to mark the fastest pace of growth since October
2011, while the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) advance to 2.0% amid
forecasts for 1.9% print. The stronger-than-expected print sparked a
bullish reaction in the reserve currency, with the EUR/USD slipping
below the 1.3550 region, and the greenback retained the gains throughout
the North American session as the pair ended the day at 1.3545.
AUDUSD, M5, 2014.07.22
AUDUSD M5 : 43 pips price movement by USD - CPI news event
newdigital, 2014.07.24 15:20
2014-07-24 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Unemployment Claims]
if actual < forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[EUR - Unemployment Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of
unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health
because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market
conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those
steering the country's monetary policy.
Also Called = Jobless Claims, Initial Claims.
The European Union is stronger today because of U.K 's contribution
to it, European Central Bank's Jens Weidmann said in his speech at the
annual dinner of the German-British Chamber of Industry & Commerce.
"The European economy is more open and dynamic as a result of Britain's commitment to open and flexible markets - a position very much in tune with the Bundesbank's" he said.
The European Union, or EU, membership has also benefited Britain, he added.
of its trade is with the European Union, and studies suggest that EU
membership has boosted Britain's trade in goods with other EU countries
by more than 50 %"
Stressing on the need for a single market, he
said, "A lot of the potential inherent in our most important European
catalyst for growth, the single market, is still untapped."
in particular, with its advanced services sector stands to gain from
dismantling the existing barriers to cross-border trade in services.",
Also, the digital markets should be integrated into a single market, he added.
about the vulnerabilities that will arise due to the integration , "a
combination of this kind gives rise to a deficit bias, as it allows the
costs of fiscal imprudence to be shifted partially on to others. An
unsustainable fiscal situation in one country has repercussions for
monetary union as a whole. You can compare this to what economists call
the "tragedy of the commons".", he said.
"Just as overfishing
creates negative externalities for other countries, excessive public
debt harms the euro area as a whole. Excessive debt in one member state
drives up longer-term interest rates for all euro-area countries."
second, each member state issues debt in a currency it cannot create.
Hence, a high level of fiscal discipline is needed to ensure that
solvency concerns do not spiral out of control." he added.
a sustainable fiscal framework and consolidating public budgets are
only two of the numerous challenges facing the euro area in becoming
more stable." he noted.
"Equally important is to correct
macroeconomic imbalances - through the restoration of competitiveness in
those countries that have fallen behind and through a further reduction
of indebtedness in the private sector there."
Further work has to done with respect to financial regulation, not just in the euro area, but globally, Weidmann said.
key objectives in this respect are: spelling out international
standards on the loss-absorbing capacity of systemically important
banks, achieving cross-border acceptance of a bank resolution, peer
reviewing measures regulating the shadow banking sector and establishing
saver derivative markets."
Stressing on the importance of Britian
being a member of the euro area, he concluded, "If Britain continues to
make its voice heard in Europe, I am confident that the Union will
become more outward-looking, open and prosperous for that."
GBPUSD, M5, 2014.07.24
GBPUSD M5 : 22 pips price movement by USD - Unemployment Claims news event
newdigital, 2014.07.25 14:42
2014-07-25 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods. It's a leading indicator of production - rising purchase orders signal
that manufacturers will increase activity as they work to fill the
U.S. durable goods orders rebound, core capital goods rise
long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods rose more than expected in June,
pointing to momentum in the economy at the end of the second quarter.
The Commerce Department said on
Friday durable goods orders increased 0.7 percent as demand increased
from transportation to machinery and computers and electronic products.
for durable goods, items ranging from toasters to aircraft that are
meant to last three years or more, were revised to show a slightly
bigger 1.0 percent fall in May.
GBPUSD, M5, 2014.07.25
GBPUSD M5 : 15 pips price movement by USD - Durable Goods Orders news event
How to Start with Metatrader 5
newdigital, 2014.07.29 14:18
As many users want to make their technical/fundamental/any analysis so I have to explain about the rules how it should be going on this website.
1. Start your thread with your "technical/fundamental/any analysis/article". I mean - first post of your thread should be your content/your text/your article/your image/charts etc.
2. "External technical/fundamental/any analysis/article".
2.1. It is recommended to include "external analysis" in your thread.2.2. BUT! All "external technical/fundamental/any analysis/articles" should be placed on this thread first: Press review2.3. "External technical/fundamental/any analysis" should be placed with link to the source (in case the users want to go to their website to read whole the article).2.4. To place any "external technical/fundamental/any analysis" to your thread - use "to pocket" feature by doing the following:
press this link which is located below your post with "external analysis/article"
after that - press this button (in your thread) to post it (to your thread)
3. The thread with 1 or 2 posts is not the thread. Those are posts :) If you open the thread so make sure that you are going to make/manage this thread for many posts (made by you or other members).
4. If you open the thread it means - you have something to post there - you will/should post on your thread without waiting for the members to join for posting :)
Sorry for complicated explanation.
My example - this thread: EURUSD Technical Analysis 2014, 27.07 - 03.08: Bearish
The thread was started with my analysis (first post of the thread), all external analysis was uploaded to this thread Press review first and used from "to pocket" to be placed from this thread Press review to my thread here EURUSD Technical Analysis 2014, 27.07 - 03.08: Bearish
In this case - the members will understand and can compare my personal analysis with the analysis made by famous external sources.
newdigital, 2014.07.30 06:58
2014-07-29 22:45 GMT (or 00:45 MQ MT5 time) | [NZD - Building Permits]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for NZD in our case)
NZD - Building Permits = Change in the number of new building approvals issued. It's a leading gauge of future construction activity because obtaining
government approval is among the first steps in constructing a new
building. Construction is important because it produces a wide-reaching
ripple effect - for example, jobs are created for the construction
workers, subcontractors and inspectors are hired, and various
construction services are purchased by the builder
New Zealand Building Permits Climb 3.5% In June
The total number of building consents issued in New Zealand gained a
seasonally adjusted 3.5 percent on month in June, Statistics New
Zealand said on Wednesday - coming in at 1,950.
That follows the 4.6 percent decline in May.
Excluding permits for apartment construction (which totaled 197), building consents were up 2.9 percent.
NZDUSD, M5, 2014.07.30
NZDUSD M5 : 6 pips price movement by NZD - Building Permits news event
newdigital, 2014.07.30 09:54
Trading the News: U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (based on dailyfx article)
The advance Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may heighten the appeal
of the U.S. dollar as the world’s largest economy is expected to grow an
annualized 3.0% in the second-quarter.
A marked rebound in the growth rate may spark a greater dissent within
the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as a growing number of central
bank officials scale back their dovish tone for monetary policy, and
Chair Janet Yellen may come under increased pressure to normalize
monetary policy sooner rather than later as the outlook for growth and
The pickup in wage growth along with the ongoing improvement in the
labor market may generate a better-than-expected GDP print, and a large
uptick in the growth rate may generate a bullish reaction in the
greenback (bearish EUR/USD) as it fuels interest rate expectations.
However, sticky inflation paired with the persistent slack in the
housing market may weigh on the growth rate, and a disappointing GDP
release may spur a near-term selloff in the reserve currency as it gives
the Fed greater scope to retain its highly accommodative policy stance
for an extended period of time.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: U.S. Economy Expands 3.0% or Greater
NZDUSD M5 : 28 pips price movement by USD - GDP news event
newdigital, 2014.08.01 11:36
Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) (based on dailyfx article)
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) are anticipated to increase another 231K in
July, and a positive employment print may produce a further decline in
the EUR/USD as it puts increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to
normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.
Why Is This Event Important:
The deviation in the policy outlook favors a bearish outlook for the
EUR/USD as the European Central Bank (ECB) stands ready to implement
more non-standard measures, and the NFP print may generate fresh 2014
lows in the euro-dollar should the release boost the interest rate
outlook for the U.S.The resilience in private consumption along with the marked rebound in
economic activity may encourage firms to further expand their labor
force, and a better-than-expected NFP print should produce a bullish
reaction in the U.S. dollar as puts increased pressure on the Federal
Open Market Committee (FOMC) to move away from its zero-interest rate
policy (ZIRP).However, the downturn in business confidence along with the rise in
planned job cuts may produce further headwinds for the U.S. labor
market, and a dismal employment report may undermine the bullish
sentiment surrounding the reserve currency as it raises the Fed’s scope
to retain the highly accommodative policy stance for an extended period
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: NFPs Rises 231K+; Unemployment Holds at 6.1%
The U.S. economy added another 288K jobs in June following a revised
224K advance the month prior, while the jobless rate unexpectedly
narrowed to an annualized 6.1% from 6.3% in May. The
better-than-expected NFP print propped up the greenback, with the
EUR/USD slipping below the 1.3625 region, and the reserve currency
retained the bullish reaction going into the end of the week as the pair
closed at 1.3608.
NZDUSD, M5, 2014.08.01
NZDUSD M5 : 60 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Payrolls news event
newdigital, 2014.08.07 17:09
2014-08-07 11:00 GMT (or 13:00 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - Official Bank Rate]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
[GBP - Official Bank Rate] = Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the BOE to other banks. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation
- traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates
will change in the future.
Bank Of England Holds Rates Steady As Expected
The Bank of England once again kept its key rate at a record low on
Thursday, sticking to its forward guidance even as the strong pace of
economic recovery has augmented speculation for a rate hike late this
The nine-member Monetary Policy Committee decided to keep
its key bank rate unchanged at 0.50 percent and the asset purchase
programme at GBP 375 billion.
With the strong economic recovery
and unemployment falling more sharply than estimated, some members of
the panel are likely to have favored a rate hike. The minutes of the
previous meeting also signaled that some policymakers are getting closer
to a rate hike call.
The current 0.50 interest rate is the
lowest since the central bank was established in 1694 and it has heavily
reduced the interest income of savers. The unconventional measures were
announced during the financial crisis to shore up the economy.
several instance BoE Chief Mark Carney said the interest rate will have
to start rising to maintain price stability as the economy normalizes,
but there is no pre-set timing for that action.
may not have been unanimous and a rate hike this year cannot be ruled
out, said Samuel Tombs, a senior UK economist at Capital Economics. Even
so, the outlook of low inflation and sluggish wage growth suggests that
interest rates will rise only gradually.
The minutes, due on
August 20, will give insight into factors that compelled policymakers to
call for an early action. James Knightley, an ING Bank NV economist
said he would expect to see one, possibly two members of the MPC having
voted for a rate hike at today's meeting.
GBPUSD, M5, 2014.08.07
GBPUSD M5 : 12 pips price movement by GBP - Official Bank Rate news event