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Discussion of article "Several Ways of Finding a Trend in MQL5"
newdigital, 2014.06.25 20:45
How to detect forex trends
Detecting a trend is an important part of predicting direction in a
currency pair. Tomorrow’s prices usually follow or continue today’s
trend. There will, of course, be reversals and ranging behavior within
the trend but it is easier to trade with a known trend than to predict
when it changes. The task of the forex trader is to detect variations or
waves of sentiment. The trader needs to ask: is there a shape to
changes in sentiment and can it be detected? To answer this question, we
can turn to price break charts (also called three-line break charts).
In recent months, Bloomberg Professional stations added these charts.
They also are available in many retail charting programs such as eSignal
Price break charts show only a new high close or a new low close. For
example, if a trader using a candlestick chart of a daytime interval
converts it to a three-line price break chart, he would see the price
action from a different vantage point. The price break chart would only
show consecutive new day high closes, or consecutive new day low closes.
If no new high or new low is reached, then no additional bar would
appear. But when the price reverses, it shows a new column only if the
price reverses three previous highs (downward reversal) or three
previous lows. This is why it is called a
three-line break chart. The conditions for a bullish and bearish
reversal are easily identified.
Three-line break charts enable significant insights into the shape of
sentiment in the price action. A trader can detect the prevailing
sentiment, how strong it is, whether a change in sentiment has occurred
and project where the next trend reversal will occur. Several examples
of using the three-line break as an indicator occurred in the GBP/USD
pair in 2009 (see “Show me the move”).
The year started with a series of three consecutive new lows. It then
reversed to a distance of four new consecutive highs. The sequence
reversed back to four new consecutive lows followed by three consecutive
new highs. In April, we see a very significant sentiment event, a
flip-flop. This is a new downward reversal followed immediately by an
upward reversal. In other words, market sentiment did not continue into a
series. When a flip-flop occurs, it is rarely followed by another
immediate reversal and therefore is a signal that the trend direction
after the flip-flop will continue for a longer distance. This is exactly
what occurred. The GBP/USD flipped from a low of 1.4252 on March 30 to a
high of 1.5002 on April 15.
Also in the pound, we see a long sequence of 20 new consecutive day
highs that occurred between May 1 and June 11, taking it from 1.4490 to
1.6598. While the ultimate length of the sequence is not predicable,
what was clear to the trader was that the previous highest uptrend
sequence before the long run up was five new consecutive highs. When a
previous sequence of highs or lows is broken by a new sequence, this is
an alert that the sentiment is becoming stronger than ever.
After the 20 new consecutive highs were achieved, GBP/USD no longer
had the energy to repeat this sequence. It entered into a series of
smaller consecutive new daily highs, and reversals into consecutive new
lows. GBP/USD ended with a reversal up with two consecutive new daily
Price break charts can be used for any time frame. Scalpers could use
a one-minute price break to spot what is the intra-hour prevailing
sentiment. While price break charts do not predict the duration, or the
distance of a new trend, they reveal the strength of the prevailing
sentiment. That can be enough to get an edge for the scalper or the
newdigital, 2014.06.27 10:02
2014-06-26 22:45 GMT (or 00:45 MQ MT5 time) | [NZD - Trade Balance]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for NZD in our case)
[NZD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month. Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners
must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export
demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers.
Also Called : Overseas Merchandise Trade.
New Zealand Trade Surplus NZ$285 Million
New Zealand posted a merchandise trade surplus of 285 million New
Zealand dollars in May, Statistics New Zealand said on Friday -
representing 6.2 percent of exports.
That topped forecasts for an increase of NZ$250 million following the NZ$534 million surplus in April.
climbed NZ$528 million or 13.0 percent on year to NZ$4.60 billion -
beating expectations for NZ$4.50 billion, which would have been
unchanged from the previous month.
"Goods exports are high this
month compared with May 2013," international statistics manager Jason
Attewell said. "However, it appears the growth in exports seen in the
past year has leveled off."
Exports to China, New Zealand's main
export partner, were up NZ$204 million to NZ$868 million in May. This
was led by milk powder, crude oil, and sheep meat. This is the first
shipment of crude oil to China since July 2009.
growth of exports to China has resulted in the two-way trade of goods
(exports plus imports) reaching NZ$20.1 billion for the first time in
the year ended May 2014. This was up NZ$4.7 billion from the previous
year, with exports contributing NZ$4.0 billion to this increase.
Exports to Australia fell NZ$81 million to NZ$667 million.
added NZ$283 million or 7.0 percent on year to NZ$4.32 billion versus
forecasts for NZ$4.23 billion and up from NZ$3.96 billion a month
Capital goods led the rise, up NZ$186 million. This was led by trucks, cranes, and excavators.
Vehicles, parts, and accessories also fueled the increase in imports, up NZ$114 million.
Seasonally adjusted, exports added 0.5 percent on month in May, while imports jumped 2.9 percent.
to date, New Zealand's trade surplus was NZ$1.373 billion - topping
expectations for NZ$1.350 billion and up from NZ$1.191 billion a month
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
NZDUSD, M5, 2014.06.27
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
NZDUSD M5 : 18 pips price movement by NZD - Trade Balance news event
newdigital, 2014.07.02 14:07
GBP/USD Promises Push Higher Post Morning Star Candlestick Pattern (based on dailyfx article)
GBP/USD’s promises a further push higher following a Morning Star
formation on the daily. With current levels not witnessed since 2008,
definitive areas of resistance are not easily identifiable. This
suggests traders may defer to psychologically-significant handles to
look at taking profits and puts 1.7200 on the radar.
GBPUSD, D1, 2014.07.02
newdigital, 2014.07.03 12:16
Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) are projected to increase another 215K in
June, but the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision may
spark a mixed reaction in the EUR/USD as market participants weigh the
outlook for monetary policy.
Why Is This Event Important:
Despite expectations of seeing the longest stretch of 200K+ prints since
1999-2000, it seems as though we would need a more meaningful pickup in
job growth for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to soften its
dovish tune for monetary policy, and the bearish sentiment surrounding
the greenback may continue to take shape going into the Fed’s July 30 as
Chair Janet Yellen remains reluctant to move away from the highly
accommodative policy stance.
The pickup in private sector hiring along with the ongoing improvement
in business confidence raises the scope for a better-than-expected NFP
print, and a strong employment read may mitigate the bearish sentiment
surrounding the USD as it puts increased pressure on the Fed to move
away from its easing cycle.
However, the slowdown in private sector consumption paired with the
persistent slack in the real economy may continue to drag on job growth,
and a weak NFP figure may trigger selloff in the greenback as it raises
the Fed’s scope to retain the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) beyond
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: NFPs Rises 215K+; Unemployment Holds Steady
May 2014 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls
The U.S. economy added another 217K jobs in May following a revised 282K
expansion the month prior, while the jobless rate unexpectedly held
steady at an annualized 6.3% amid forecasts for a 6.4% print. Despite
the downtick in unemployment, the EUR/USD climbed back above the 1.3650
region following the release, but the market reaction was short-lived as
the pair ended the day at 1.3640.
USDCAD, M5, 2014.07.03
USDCAD M5 : 30 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event
newdigital, 2013.12.23 16:51
you should read and read ...
and read articles.
No any personal consultant here sorry ... people may help but just for some concrete questions.
newdigital, 2014.07.08 09:19
2014-07-08 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - NAB Business Confidence]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
[AUD - NAB Business Confidence] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed businesses, excluding the farming industry. It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly
to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early
signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and
Acro Expand : National Australia Bank (NAB).
Australian Business Confidence Strengthens In June
confidence improved in June, although conditions remained sub-trend,
results of a survey by the National Australia Bank showed Tuesday.
NAB business confidence index increased to 8 in June from 7 in May
despite the government's challenging new budget. This improvement was
driven by strengthened confidence in almost all the industries, with the
surge in construction industry confidence contributing the most.
New orders remained stagnant in June, the same as in May.
the employment index weakened in June, coming in at -3, after being
unchanged in May. Capacity utilization fell to 79.3 percent in June from
80.2 in May.
On the pricing front, input costs rose 0.3 percent
quarter-over-quarter in June, a slower rate of increase than the 0.4
percent increase in May. Labor wages grew at a slower rate of 0.6
percent in June following the 0.7 percent increase in May. Output prices
rose 0.1 percent on a quarterly basis in June, the same rate as in May.
business conditions index increased to 2 in June from -1 in May, ending
the negative trend that started in the beginning of the year. Sales and
profits were stronger in June while employment remained weak.
AUDUSD, M5, 2014.07.08
AUDUSD M5 : 14 pips price movement by AUD - NAB Business Confidence news event
newdigital, 2014.07.10 08:52
2014-07-10 02:00 GMT (or 04:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - Trade Balance]
[CNY - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the previous month. Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners
usually buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports.
Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic
Acro Expand : Customs General Administration of China (CGAC).
This led to China’s June trade surplus narrowing to $31.6 billion from $35.92 billion in May, and below consensus estimates of $36.9 billion.
On the news, AUD/USD dipped over 0.2% and found some support at the 0.9397 level.
There’s a bit of optimism with China’s customs office expecting exports
growth to accelerate in the third quarter. Imports could also pick up
based on improving signs of manufacturing and service activities over
the past two months.
Still, there are concerns that the recovery has been patchy,
particularly with the soft property sector and worries that the earnings
season underway might turn out to be disappointing.
There is also some expectation that the government will have to do
more to jumpstart the recovery with further stimulus measures to meet
its 7.5% growth target. That argument got some backing when China’s
June’s CPI was released yesterday, which came in at 2.3% year-on-year.
This was down from 2.5% in the previous month and under the 2.4% market
China’s exports growth will also hinge on the recovery of other key
economies especially the Euro Zone. The global outlook became a bit more
uncertain after the International Monetary Fund warned earlier this
week that global investment spending was still lacklustre.
We’ll get a better picture next week with the release of China’s Q2
GDP on Wednesday 16 July. This will perhaps be the clearest indication
so far on how well China’s mini-stimulus measures have helped and how
much more is needed since their roll-out back in April. The market
consensus forecast for Q2 GDP is 7.4% growth, unchanged from Q1 which
was the slowest in six quarters.
Indonesia will also be keenly watching China’s recovery story.
Regardless who wins the election, the new president will take over a
slowing economy with weakening fundamentals. With economic reforms a
long term process, Indonesia’s outlook and policy decisions in the
interim could hinge closely on China’s demand for commodities.
NZDUSD, M5, 2014.07.10
NZDUSD M5 : 17 pips price movement by CNY - Trade Balance news event
newdigital, 2014.07.11 15:42
2014-07-11 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [CAD - Employment Change]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for CAD in our case)
[CAD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
U.K. CB Leading Index Rises At Stable Rate In May
U.K 's leading index, a measure of perceptions on future economic
conditions, increased at a stable rate in May, results of a survey by
the Conference Board showed Friday.
The Conference Board leading
economic index rose 0.5 percent month-on-month in May, the same as in
April. The index came in at 111.0 in May.
Six among the seven sub-indices contributed positively to the rise in the overall index.
Conference Board Coincident Economic Index, measuring the current
economic activity, came in at 106.9 and was unchanged month-on-month in
May. This follows the 0.3 percent increase in April and March.
six-month growth rate of the Leading Economic Index for the U.K has
decelerated in each of the last five months, pointing to slower growth
performance for the second half of 2014 compared to the first," Bert
Colijn, senior economist at The Conference Board, said.
"The slowing growth outlook is partially exacerbated by concerns about the short-term weakness in growth in emerging markets and the Euro Area."
USDCAD, M5, 2014.07.11
USDCAD M5 : 65 pips price movement by CAD - Employment Change news event
newdigital, 2014.07.15 06:40
Strategy Video: Dollar, Pound and S&P 500 Probability vs Impact through Event Risk
In a dense round of event risk through the immediate future, there are
scenarios where the headlines can prove exceptionally market moving...or
barely tipping the needle. Expectations build up behind certain themes
and markets to minimize the impact of likely outcomes and amplify the
reaction to the less likely. In today's Strategy Video, we revisit this
scenario analysis between 'potential' and 'probability' for Fed
Chairwoman Janet Yellen's testimony, UK CPI and the general lean of a
busy docket against the Dollar, Pound and S&P 500.
newdigital, 2014.07.15 09:57
Trading the News: U.K. Consumer Price Index
A pickup in the U.K.’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) may generate fresh
monthly highs in the GBP/USD as it fuels expectations for a Bank of
England (BoE) rate hike later this year.
What’s Expected:Why Is This Event Important:
The bullish sentiment surrounding the British Pound should gather pace
in the second-half of the year as the BoE looks normalize monetary
policy sooner rather than later, and the fundamental developments coming
out of the region may continue to prop up interest rate expectations as
a growing number of central bank officials adopt a more hawkish tone
for inflation.Expectations for a faster recovery paired with the ongoing improvement
in the labor market may prompt a stronger-than-expected CPI print, and a
marked pickup in the headline reading for inflation may generate a
bullish reaction in the GBP/USD as it boosts interest rate expectations.However, subdued wages along with the slowdown in private sector credit
may drag on consumer prices, and a dismal inflation report may spur a
larger correction in the GBP/USD as it dampens bets of seeing a rate
hike later this year.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish GBP Trade: U.K. Inflation Climbs to 1.6% or Higher
GBPUSD M5 : 38 pips price movement by GBP - CPI news event
U.K. consumer prices slowed to an annualized 1.5% in May from 1.8% the
month prior, while the core rate of inflation narrowed to 1.6% during
the same period after expanding 2.0% in April, which marked the fastest
pace of growth since August 2013. The British Pound struggled to hold
its ground following the weaker-than-expected CPI print, with the
GBP/USD slipping back below the 1.6950 region, but the sterling regained
its footing during the North American trade, with the pair ending the
day at 1.6990.
GBPUSD, M5, 2014.07.15
GBPUSD M5 : 64 pips price movement by GBP - CPI news event