DAX Index October-December 2016 Forecast: ranging inside Ichimoku cloud waiting for direction of the trend
W1 price was on the local uptrend as a bear market rally within the primary bearish market condition: the price came to the Ichimoku cloud from below andSenkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator was tested from inside the cloud to above for the bullish reversal to be started. But the price was finally bounced from Senkou Span back to the Ichimoku cloud for the ranging bearish market condition. For now, the price is located near and below Senkou Span and 10,803 resistance level for the bullish reversal to be started or for the ranging bearish trend to be continuing.Chinkou Span line is located above the price indicating the ranging condition, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the trend to be ranging as well in the future. By the way, Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen line for the possible bullish reversal in the near future for example.
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.01 10:41
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.14 20:20
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and DAX Index: Fed Chair Yellen Speaks at the Federal Reserve Bank2016-10-14 17:30 GMT | [USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speaks]
[USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speaks] = Speech named "Macroeconomic Research After the Crisis" at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston’s Annual Research Conference.
From Bloomberg article: Yellen Sees ‘Plausible Ways’ Hot Economy Could Heal Growth
EUR/USD M5: 24 pips price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speaks news events
DAX Index M5 price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speaks news events
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.25 10:42
Dax Index: Bullish breakout (adapted from the article)
Daily price is on bullish breakout with 10,815 resistance level to be tested for the bullish trend to be continuing.
If the daily price breaks 10,815 resistance to above on close daily bar so the bullish trend will be continuing.If the daily price breaks 10,336 support level to below on close bar so the bearish reversal will be started.If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.31 14:04
DAX Index: Short-Term Levels for direction of the trend (adapted from the article)
H1 price is located within 100 SMA/200 SMA ranging levels in the bullish area of the chart to be above 200 SMA levels.
If the price breaks 10,707
resistance level on close hourly bar to above so the primary bullish trend will be resumed with 10,720/10,749 bullish targets.If H1 price breaks 10,635 support level on close bar to below so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started with 10,581 target.If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.
Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.06 08:21
Week Ahead On Wall Street: Markets Brace For Election Results (based on Forbes article)
Monday"British lawmakers will debate the implications of Brexit, after the High Court said that Parliament must give its approval before the country can move forward with its split from the European Union."
Tuesday"It’s election day. Billionaire Elon Musk has begun campaigning for the merger of SolarCity and Tesla and last week promised that the tie-up would yield big financial benefits for Tesla investors."
Wednesday"Goldman Sachs is expected to announce which of its top employees have achieved partner status. It does this every two years and in 2014 named 78 people to the position. The partnership ranks are tough to break into and represent fewer than 2% of the firm’s workers."
Thursday"Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz, activist investor Bill Ackman, Goldman Sachs CEO Llyod Blankfein and others will speak at The New York Times’ Dealbook conference."
Friday"Bond markets are closed for Veteran’s Day. The stock market will keep its normal hours."
Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.09 07:49
German DAX - from bear market rally to the bullish reversal irrespective off the analytics forecasts (adapted from the article)
Some analytics are forecasting for Dax Index to be in bearish market condition with 10,000 strong support level as a nearest bearish target for the price to be bounced to above:
"DAX is turning strongly to the downside from a new high, so we believe that index is trapped in a new corrective pattern; a very complex one that can either be an Elliott Wave flat or an Elliott Wave triangle. As things stands at the moment, we favor the flat that is pointing down for wave five of C which could then form a bottom at 10000-10100 area."
But, anyway, the intra-day H4 price was bounced from 10,195 support level to above for the breakout as a bear market rally. For now, the price is testing 10,583 resistance level to above for the bullish reversal to be started.
Daily price broke 100-day SMA/200-day SMA reversal area to above to be reversed to the primary bullish market condition. The price is breaking 50.0% Fibo level at 10,509 to above for the primary bullish trend to be continuing.
Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.09 08:17
Market opened with some interesting situation: H4 price was bounced from 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal levels to below for 10,019 support level to be testing for the bearish breakdown to be continuing. So, it means that analytics was right concerning Dax price movement:
Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.17 14:57
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
2016-11-17 13:30 GMT | [USD - Building Permits]
[USD - Building Permits] = Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month.
From official reports:
"The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 1.6 percent before seasonal adjustment."
EUR/USD M5: 38 pips range price movement by CPI and Building Permits news events
S&P 500 M5: range price movement by CPI and Building Permits news events
Dax Index M5: range price movement by CPI and Building Permits news events
Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.23 15:35
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GOLD (XAU/USD) and Dax Index: U.S. Durable Goods Orders2016-11-23 13:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]
[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.
From Market Watch article: Durable-goods orders see jet-fueled 4.8% gain in October
EUR/USD M5: 49 pips range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events
GOLD (XAU/USD) M5: bearish price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events
Dax Index M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events
Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.29 18:23
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GOLD (XAU/USD) and Dax Index: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence2016-11-29 15:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]
[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.
From official report:
"The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had declined in
October, increased significantly in November. The Index now stands at
107.1 (1985=100), up from 100.8 in October. The Present Situation Index
increased from 123.1 to 130.3, while the Expectations Index improved
from 86.0 last month to 91.7."
EUR/USD M5: 37 pips range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events
XAU/USD M5: range pips price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events
Dax Index M5: range pips price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events