Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.01 11:58
Weekly Outlook: 2016, October 02 - October 09 (based on the article)
The third quarter ended with mixed moves in currencies. A full buildup to the US Non-Farm Payrolls, a rate decision in Australia and other figures fill the first week of the last quarter. These are the main events on forex calendar.
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 14:00. Manufacturing PMI is expected to reach 52.1 in September.
- Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 3:30. No change in rates is expected this time. This is the first rate decision made by the new governor Philip Lowe.
- US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Wednesday, 12:15. The ADP report is expected to show a 166,000 jobs gain in September.
- US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 14:00. Non-manufacturing activity is expected to reach 53.1 in September.
- US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30.
- US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of new claims is expected to register 255,000 jobs gain this week.
- Canadian employment data: Friday, 12:30. Economists expected a smaller gain of 16,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to remain steady at 6.9%.
- US Non-Farm Payrolls: Friday, 12:30. The number of new jobs in September is expected to be 171,000 while the unemployment rate is forecasted to remain at 4.9%. Wages are projected to rise by 0.2% m/m.
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.05 17:09
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CAD: U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
2016-10-05 13:45 GMT | [USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI]
- past data is 51.4
- forecast data is 53.1
- actual data is 57.1 according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry.
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EUR/USD M5: 27 pips price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events
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USD/CAD M5: 43 pips range price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.07 14:52
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CAD: Non-Farm Payrolls
2016-10-07 12:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]
- past data is 151K
- forecast data is 171K
- actual data is 156K according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
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EUR/USD M5: 52 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events
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USD/CAD M5: 103 pips price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events


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Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price is on ranging within the following support/resistance levels:
Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging condition to be continuing, and Trend Strength indicator are evaluating the trend as the primary bullish in the future. Ascending triangle pattern was forme by the price to be crossed to above for the bullish trend to be resumed
If D1 price breaks 1.2999 support level on close bar so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If D1 price breaks 1.3253 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the bullish trend will be resumed with 1.3280 bullish target to re-enter.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.
SUMMARY : ranging
TREND : bullish