USD/JPY October-December 2016 Forecast: ranging bearish; 98.97 support to be broken for the bearish trend to be continuing
W1 price is located far below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart. The price was bounced from 99.53 support level to above for the secondary ranging condition to be started with 98.97 key support level which is going to be broken to below in case of the bearish trend to be continuing. By the way, ascending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to above for the bear market rally to be started if 104.31 resistance is broken to above on close weekly bar for example.Chinkou Span line
is located below the price indicating the bearish trend to be continuing, Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen line
of Ichimoku indicator for the bearish continuation in the near future as well, and
Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the trend to be ranging bearish market condition in the future.
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.01 11:58
Weekly Outlook: 2016, October 02 - October 09 (based on the article)
The third quarter ended with mixed moves in currencies. A full buildup to the US Non-Farm Payrolls, a rate decision in Australia and other figures fill the first week of the last quarter. These are the main events on forex calendar.
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.11 08:26
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: The Race To Debase Resumes In Asia (based on the article)
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.18 15:25
USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Consumer Price Index and 36 pips range price movement
2016-10-18 12:30 GMT | [USD - Consumer Price Index]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Consumer Price Index] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
From official report:
USD/JPY M5: 36 pips range price movement by U.S. Consumer Price Index news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.25 19:20
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/JPY : The Conference Board Consumer Confidence2016-10-25 14:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]
[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.
"Consumer confidence retreated in October, after back-to-back monthly
gains,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The
Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of current business and
employment conditions softened, while optimism regarding the short-term
outlook retreated somewhat. However, consumers’ expectations regarding
their income prospects in the coming months were relatively unchanged.
Overall, sentiment is that the economy will continue to expand in the
near-term, but at a moderate pace."
EUR/USD M5: 43 pips range price movement by The Conference Board Consumer Confidence news events
USD/JPY M5: 74 pips range price movement by The Conference Board Consumer Confidence news events
Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.01 16:17
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and USD/JPY : Manufacturing ISM Report On Business2016-11-01 14:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]
[USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.
EUR/USD M5: 23 pips range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events
USD/CAD M5: 19 pips range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events
USD/JPY M5: 33 pips range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events
Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.07 12:35
USD/JPY - "Given the changes in the backdrop for the
BoJ, we’re going to leave our forecast at neutral for the week ahead on
the Yen until more information presents itself. Data out of Japan will
be extremely light for next week, so expect the Yen to trade with
general macro headwinds that will likely emanate from U.S. Presidential
Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.07 18:16
USD/JPY: Scenarios & Tactical Strategies For Trading The US Elections - Deutsche Bank (based on the article)
Scenarios 1 and 2 - "We would recommend selling if USD/JPY rose to around 105 or higher."
Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.09 12:26
USD/JPY after Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. election (based on the article)
USD/JPY H1 timeframe: price broke 100 SMA/200 SMA levels to below for the reversal from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition with 101.18 support level to be testing for the bearish trend to be continuing.
climbed from an earlier session low of 105.46 to as high as 101.15
versus the dollar. As of 5:37 a.m. ET, the dollar/yen traded at 103.18."
Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.14 07:59
USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks and 34 pips range price movement
2016-11-14 01:00 GMT | [JPY - BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks]
[JPY - BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks] = Speech about Japan's economy and monetary policy at the business leaders meeting, in Nagoya.
From gettyimages article: Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speech and News Conference
USD/JPY M5: 34 pips range price movement by BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.19 11:17
USD/JPY - "In the week ahead we’ll watch any especially-large surprises out of the coming week’s release of Japanese Consumer Price Inflation figures will otherwise drive JPY volatility. Traders have shown relatively little sensitivity to Japanese economic data, however; rhetoric from the BoJ matters far more than a single economic print."