Press review - page 440

[Sergey Golubev]

Non-Farm Payrolls forecasts from the majors int'l financial institutions (based on the article)

BofA Merrill: "We look for another week employment report in September with only 140,000 in job growth and potential upward revisions to August."

Barclays: "We look for nonfarm payrolls to rise 200k."

BNPP: "For September, we expect about 160,000 jobs."

Credit Agricole: "Our estimate is for a 175K rise for September nonfarm payrolls and a decline in the unemployment rate to 4.8%."

SEB: "We expect a 160k advance in September payrolls. and a steady 4.9% employment rate."

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CAD: Non-Farm Payrolls

2016-10-07 12:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

• past data is 151K
• forecast data is 171K
• actual data is 156K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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"Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 156,000 in September, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 5.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment gains occurred in professional and business services and in health care."

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EUR/USD M5: 52 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events

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USD/CAD M5: 103 pips price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Outlook: 2016, October 09 - October 16 (based on the article)

German ZEW Economic Sentiment, US FOMC Meeting Minutes, UK Rate decision, US Unemployment Claims, US Crude Oil Inventories, US Consumer Sentiment and Janet Yellen’s speech; These are the main events on forex calendar.

• German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. Economic sentiment is expected to improve to 4.2.
• US FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 18:00.
  
• UK Rate decision: Thursday, 11:00. The MPC expect a boost in growth during 2017 if the present economic momentum continues.
• US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of new claims is expected to reach 252,000 this week.
• US Crude Oil Inventories: Thursday, 15:00.
  
• US Retail sales: Friday, 12:30. Retail sales is expected to gain 0.6%, while core sakes are predicted to rise 0.4%.
• US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 14:00. U.S. consumer confidence is expected to climb to 92.1 this
• Janet Yellen speaks: Friday, 17:30. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will give a talk in Boston’s Annual Research Conference. She will talk about the US economic recovery and may give further clues regarding the expected rate hike timetable. Market volatility is expected.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)

Dollar Index - "While the warning on risk trends may seem threadbare at this point, it is nevertheless a market catalyst that could systemically change market and financial structure conditions. Benchmarks like the S&P 500 have worked their way back into extraordinarily tight rangeswhile liquidity continues to bleed away yet volatility lingers. The crumbling of confidence in monetary policy (market-born) and fading outlook for growth (generally accepted after the IMF’s updates) represent a transfer of risk squarely onto the shoulders of the complacent market participant. It is not a question of ‘if’ but ‘when’. And, the transition from losing yield advantage to an outright demand for absolute haven will happen quickly for the Greenback in such an event."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)

GBP/USD - "In regards to the U.S., the weaker-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report appears to have had a limited impact on interest-rate expectations as Fed Funds Futures continue to highlight a greater than 60% probability for a December rate-hike, and central bank officials may take a more collective approach in preparing U.S. households and businesses for higher borrowing-costs as the economy approaches ‘full-employment.’ Comments from Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, New York Fed President William Dudley, Kansas City Fed President Esther George, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and Chair Janet Yellen may spur a greater market reaction than the FOMC meeting minutes as the committee appears to be following a similar path to 2015, and the near-term strength in the greenback may gather pace should the key U.S. data prints reinforce expectations for a ‘moderate’ recovery. With that said, a 0.6% rebound in U.S. Retail Sales accompanied by another pickup in the U. of Michigan Confidence survey may fuel the near-term appreciation in the dollar as it boosts the outlook for growth and inflation."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)

AUD/USD - "As it stands, traders see the probability of a rate increase in December at just over 64 percent. This leaves ample room for greater certainty to be factored into the markets. Should this materialize, the Australian Dollar is likely to find itself on the defensive once again as shifting yield spreads undermine demand and risk appetite sours at the prospect of stimulus withdrawal."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CNH (based on the article)

USD/CNH - "Next week, China will release money supply and New Yuan loans prints for September, which may give out more clues on the risk of housing price bubbles. So far, home loans have become the sole driver to new lending: They took up 71.2% of all loans in August and 98.2% in July. This means that an incredible high amount of cash has flown into the real estate sector. Investment in other sectors, on the other hand, remained low, resulting a huge gap between the growth in M1 and M2. Next Thursday, China will release the September Consumer Price Index read, which is expected to increase to 1.6% from 1.3% in the month prior, according to a consensus forecast from Bloomberg. These levels are distant from the target rate of 3.0%. However, amid the increasing risk in property market, China’s Central Bank are likely to be restrained to introduce additional easing measures to support the economy."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (XAU/USD) (based on the article)

GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Coming into October, gold prices extended the late-September losses as USD strength continues to dampen the appeal of non-yielding assets. Nevertheless, with the recent batch of data failing to move the needle for the Fed’s November meeting, the recent weakness in the precious metal may abate over the days ahead should we get more of the same rhetoric from Fed officials. Heading into next week traders will be closely eyeing the release of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday as well as a fresh batch of commentary with a slew of 2016 FOMC voting-members (New York Fed President William Dudley, Kansas City Fed President Esther George, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and Chair Janet Yellen) slated to speak."

[Sergey Golubev]

S&P 500 Weekly Update: Earnings Season Is Upon Us, A Positive Surprise May Be In The Offing (based on the article)

Daily price is on ranging above 200 SMA and near above 100 SMA for the ranging bullissh market condition waiting for the direction of the bullish trend to be resumed or for the bearish reversal to be started.

• "An investor has to be reactionary waiting for the market to give them clues, then reacting appropriately. I take my leads from price action, momentum, sentiment, and other indicators. All designed for me to decipher what the market is telling me. Never drifting too far from the one key that serves as the foundation to my current strategy. That is staying focused on the major trend that is in place, and that remains without question, in favor of the bulls."
• "Short term support is at S&P 2142, then the 2131 pivot, with resistance at the 2177 pivot and S&P 2194. Note that this week's low was 2144 and it held that level twice."
• "The S&P 500 earnings yield is nearly twice the yield on the 10 year treasury, which is among the highest readings in the post WWII era. Additionally, the dividend yield of S&P 500 is 50 basis points more than the 10 year US treasury and more than 300 stocks in S&P 500 yield more than 10 year US Treasury."

If the price breaks 2191 resistaance level to above on daily close bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
If the daily price breaks 2106 support level to below on close bar so the bearish reversal will be started.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Flash Events

Christian Deforth, 2016.10.10 12:33

Dramatic price movements in the forexmarket seems to be periodic events and includes a higher risk potential when trading currency pairs.

e.g.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/07/confusion-as-pound-falls-10-in-insane-asian-trading-and-no-one-knows-why

http://www.exchangerates.org.uk/news/15660/usd-eur-dollar-euro-fed-ecb-uk-brexit-referendum-fx-forex-currency-forecast.html

http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2015/02/economist-explains-2

What can a trader do to avoid bigger losses?

...& could unknown future events like these profitable tradable?

Christian