Non-Farm Payrolls forecasts from the majors int'l financial institutions (based on the article)
BofA Merrill: "We
look for another week employment report in September with only 140,000
in job growth and potential upward revisions to August."
Barclays: "We look for nonfarm payrolls to rise 200k."
BNPP: "For September, we expect about 160,000 jobs."
Credit Agricole: "Our estimate is for a 175K rise for September nonfarm payrolls and a decline in the unemployment rate to 4.8%."
SEB: "We expect a 160k advance in September payrolls. and a steady 4.9% employment rate."
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CAD: Non-Farm Payrolls2016-10-07 12:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
EUR/USD M5: 52 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events
USD/CAD M5: 103 pips price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events
Weekly Outlook: 2016, October 09 - October 16 (based on the article)
German ZEW Economic Sentiment, US FOMC Meeting Minutes, UK Rate decision, US Unemployment Claims, US Crude Oil Inventories, US Consumer Sentiment and Janet Yellen’s speech; These are the main events on forex calendar.
Dollar Index - "While the warning on risk trends may seem threadbare at this
point, it is nevertheless a market catalyst that could systemically
change market and financial structure conditions. Benchmarks like the S&P 500 have worked their way back into extraordinarily tight rangeswhile liquidity continues to bleed away
yet volatility lingers. The crumbling of confidence in monetary policy
(market-born) and fading outlook for growth (generally accepted after
the IMF’s updates) represent a transfer of risk squarely onto the
shoulders of the complacent market participant. It is not a question of
‘if’ but ‘when’. And, the transition from losing yield advantage to an
outright demand for absolute haven will happen quickly for the Greenback
in such an event."
GBP/USD - "In regards to the U.S., the weaker-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report
appears to have had a limited impact on interest-rate expectations as
Fed Funds Futures continue to highlight a greater than 60% probability
for a December rate-hike, and central bank officials may take a more
collective approach in preparing U.S. households and businesses for
higher borrowing-costs as the economy approaches ‘full-employment.’
Comments from Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, New York Fed President William Dudley, Kansas City Fed President Esther George, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and Chair Janet Yellen may spur a greater market reaction than the FOMC
meeting minutes as the committee appears to be following a similar path
to 2015, and the near-term strength in the greenback may gather pace
should the key U.S. data prints reinforce expectations for a ‘moderate’
recovery. With that said, a 0.6% rebound in U.S. Retail Sales
accompanied by another pickup in the U. of Michigan Confidence survey
may fuel the near-term appreciation in the dollar as it boosts the
outlook for growth and inflation."
AUD/USD - "As it stands, traders see the probability of a
rate increase in December at just over 64 percent. This leaves ample
room for greater certainty to be factored into the markets. Should this
materialize, the Australian Dollar is likely to find itself on the
defensive once again as shifting yield spreads undermine demand and risk
appetite sours at the prospect of stimulus withdrawal."
USD/CNH - "Next week, China will release money supply
and New Yuan loans prints for September, which may give out more clues
on the risk of housing price bubbles. So far, home loans have become the sole driver to new lending:
They took up 71.2% of all loans in August and 98.2% in July. This means
that an incredible high amount of cash has flown into the real estate
sector. Investment in other sectors, on the other hand, remained low,
resulting a huge gap between the growth in M1 and M2. Next Thursday,
China will release the September Consumer Price Index read, which is
expected to increase to 1.6% from 1.3% in the month prior, according to a
consensus forecast from Bloomberg. These levels are distant from the
target rate of 3.0%. However, amid the increasing risk in property
market, China’s Central Bank are likely to be restrained to introduce
additional easing measures to support the economy."
GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Coming into October, gold prices extended the late-September losses as USD
strength continues to dampen the appeal of non-yielding assets.
Nevertheless, with the recent batch of data failing to move the needle
for the Fed’s November meeting, the recent weakness in the precious
metal may abate over the days ahead should we get more of the same
rhetoric from Fed officials. Heading into next week traders will be
closely eyeing the release of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday as well as a fresh batch of commentary with a slew of 2016 FOMC voting-members (New York Fed President William Dudley, Kansas City Fed President Esther George, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and Chair Janet Yellen) slated to speak."
S&P 500 Weekly Update: Earnings Season Is Upon Us, A Positive Surprise May Be In The Offing (based on the article)
Daily price is on ranging above 200 SMA and near above 100 SMA for the ranging bullissh market condition waiting for the direction of the bullish trend to be resumed or for the bearish reversal to be started.
If the price breaks 2191 resistaance level to above on daily close bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.If the daily price breaks 2106 support level to below on close bar so the bearish reversal will be started.If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Christian Deforth, 2016.10.10 12:33
Dramatic price movements in the forexmarket seems to be periodic events and includes a higher risk potential when trading currency pairs.
What can a trader do to avoid bigger losses?
...& could unknown future events like these profitable tradable?