GBP/USD October-December 2016 Forecast: ranging below Ichimoku cloud near key support level for the bearish trend to be resumed
W1 price is located below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart. The price is on ranging since end of June this year within the narrow support resistance levels: 1.3444 resistance for the bear market rally to be started and 1.2794 support level for the bearish trend to be resumed. Ascending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to above for the local rally to be started, but the price is on testing with 1.2914 support level to below for 1.2794 bearish target to re-enter for the bearish trend to be continuing.
Chinkou Span line
is below the price indicating the ranging condition, Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen line
for the bearish trend to be resumed, and
Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the trend to be ranging bearish in the near future for example.
I think the reversal will happen at 1.23459 little below the 261.8 fibonacci level. if not then it will continue all the way to 1.02237 little below the 423.6 fibonacci level.
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.30 11:26
GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Current Account and 47 pips price movement
2016-09-30 08:30 GMT | [GBP - Current Account]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
[GBP - Current Account] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods, services,
income flows, and unilateral transfers during the previous quarter.
"The UK’s current account deficit was £28.7 billion in Quarter 2 (April
to June) 2016, up from a revised deficit of £27.0 billion in Quarter 1
(January to March) 2016. The deficit in Quarter 2 2016 equated to 5.9%
of gross domestic product (GDP) at current market prices, up from 5.7%
in Quarter 1 2016."
GBP/USD M5: 47 pips range price movement by U.K. Current Account news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.02 13:24
Fundamental Q4'16 Forecasts for GBP/USD (based on the article)
GBP/USD - "The first set of crucial technical levels
carved out through the previous quarter are 1.3500 resistance and 1.2800
support. These boundaries were set early and were not retested through
the subsequent months – in other words the market was contracting.
Dwindling consolidation was the primary feature of the Dollar-based
majors and for the broader financial markets through the inordinately
quiet third quarter. In turn, GBP/USD will likely succumb to changing
winds that force major breakouts and trend development. A break below
1.2800 would likely be met with chop and struggle for progress. In
contrast, an earnest break above 1.3500 will more readily find momentum
towards 1.4750 and perhaps as high as the 1.5000 pre-Brexit spike."
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.04 11:08
GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Construction PMI and 22 pips price movement
2016-10-04 08:30 GMT | [GBP - Construction PMI]
[GBP - Construction PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the construction industry.
GBPD/USD M5: 22 pips range price movement by U.K. Construction PMI news event
Christian Deforth, 2016.10.10 12:33
Dramatic price movements in the forexmarket seems to be periodic events and includes a higher risk potential when trading currency pairs.
What can a trader do to avoid bigger losses?
...& could unknown future events like these profitable tradable?
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.15 18:17
GBP/USD - "Signs of stronger U.K. inflation accompanied
by a pickup in retail spending by may curb the bearish sentiment
surrounding the sterling as BoE officials continue to drop their dovish
tone and see a greater risk of above-target price growth. Even though
BoE Governor Mark Carney argues
the central bank is willing to tolerate ‘some inflation overshoot,’ it
seems as though the marked depreciation in the British Pound is becoming
a growing concern within the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) as Deputy
Governor Jon Cunliffe warns the
next quarterly inflation due out on November 3 will reflect the sharp
decline in the exchange rate. As a result, the central bank may have
little choice but to stay on the sidelines throughout the remainder of
the year in an effort to combat the risk for stagflation. A series of
positive U.K. data prints may fuel a near-term recovery in the British
Pound as market participants push out bets for the next BoE rate-cut,
but the broader outlook for GBP/USD remains tilted to the downside as
the growing threat of a ‘hard Brexit’ undermines the
better-than-expected developments coming out of the real economy."
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.18 09:28
Trading News Events: U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI) (adapted from the article)
Bullish GBP Trade: Headline & Core CPI Pick Up in September
is located below 200-day SMA (200 SMA) and 100-day SMA (100
SMA) for the primary bearish market condition with the ranging within the narrow support/resistance levels.
GBP/USD M5: 47 pips price movement by U.K. Consumer Price Index news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.19 11:25
GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Jobless Claims and 29 pips price movement
2016-10-19 08:30 GMT | [GBP - Claimant Count Change]
if actual < forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
[GBP - Claimant Count Change] = Change in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits during the previous month.
From The Telegraph article: FTSE 100 falters and pound rises above $1.23 as UK unemployment rate holds steady at 4.9pc despite Brexit vote
GBP/USD M5: 29 pips price movement by U.K. Jobless Claims news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.20 10:49
GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Retail Sales and 17 pips range price movement
2016-10-20 08:30 GMT | [GBP - Retail Sales]
[GBP - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level.
From official report:
GBP/USD M5: 17 pips range price movement by U.K. Retail Sales news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.24 17:18
GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Bank of England Bond-Buying Operation Results and 36 pips price movement
2016-10-24 13:50 GMT | [GBP - Bank of England Bond-Buying Operation Results]
GBP/USD M5: 36 pips price movement by Bank of England Bond-Buying Operation Results news event