Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 184

Sergey Golubev
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Forecast for Q3'16 - levels for Brent Crude Oil

Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.08 09:07

Crude Oil Long-Term Technical Analysis: bearish ranging within key narrow levels for direction

Weekly price is located below 100 period SMA (100 SMA) and 200 period SMA (200 SMA) in the primary bearish area of the chart. Price is on ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 52.82 resistance level located near 100 SMA in the beginning of the bear market rally to be started, and
  • 41.49 support level located below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary bearish area of the chart.


Symmetric triangle pattern was broken by the price to below for the bearish trend to be continuing.

  • If the price breaks 52.82 resistance level so the local uptrend as the secondary rally within the primary bearish market condition will be started.
  • If price breaks 41.49 support so the primary bearish trend will be continuing with 35.93 target to re-enter.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
 Support
52.8241.49
N/A35.93
The Long-Term Strategy: watch close weekly price to break 41.49 support level for possible sell trade.

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.08 17:06

Most likely scenario for S&P 500 H4 intra-day price (based on the article)

S&P 500 H4 intra-day price is located above Ichimoku cloud for the bullish breakout which was started in the beginning of this month for example: price broke Ichimoku cloud to above for the bullish reversal.

  • "The S&P 500 opened at a record high on Monday as oil prices rose and after Friday's stellar jobs report suggested strength in the U.S. economy, boosting appetite for risk."

  • "Oil rose 1.8 percent after a report in the Wall Street Journal last week that some OPEC members had called for a freeze in production."

  • "Seven of the 10 major S&P 500 indexes were higher, led by a 0.96 percent rise in the energy sector."

  • "Oil majors Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) and Chevron (CVX.N) rose about 0.6 percent and were the top drivers of the S&P."

The price was bounced from 2,182.50 resistance level to below for the ranging to be started within key narrow support/resistance levels:

  • 2,182.50 resistance level located far about Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart, and
  • 2,174.75 support level located above Ichimoku cloud in the beginning of the secondary correction to be started.


Bearish reversal level at this timeframe is 2,160.25, and if the price breaks this level to below so the bearish reversal of the intra-day price movement will be started.

Most likely scenario for S&P 500 H4 intra-day price: 2,174.75 level will be broken to below and the correction will be started; if not so the price will be on bullish condition ranging within the levels.


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.09 21:43

Quick Intra-Day Overview - S&P 500: bullish ranging within narrow levels for direction (adapted from the article)

H4 price is located babove Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: price is on ranging within the narrow s/r levels waiting for the bullish trend to be continuing or to the secondary correction to be started.

  • "The S&P 500 pulled back from a top-side trend-line running off the 7/14 peak, and is currently trying to make its way back higher off the 2174/78 support zone. Can the breakout following Friday’s big NFP print hold, or will it fold, leading to a false breakout? It certainly could and it would be consistent with how markets often act coming out of tight ranges like the one we saw to end July into August. A drop back below 2174 confirms a false breakout and a decline back towards the low-end of the range becomes the risk. Should support hold, then so does the market’s current upward bias."
  • If H4 price breaks 2172.75 support level on close bar so the correction will be started.
  • If H4 price breaks 2183.25 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.


ResistanceSupport
2183.252172.75
N/A2159.38

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.10 17:18

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day bearish breakdown; daily ranging for direction

2016-08-10 14:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 1.1 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: intra-day breakdown with the bearish reversal. The price is breaking 100 SMA/200 SMA for the bearish reversal.

If the price breaks 45.08 resistance level on close M5 to above so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 44.45 support on close M5 bar so the intra-day bearish breakdown will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.


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Crude Oil Daily: ranging within 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area for direction. The price is on bullish ranging condition located to be above 200 SMA and below 100 SMA on the ranging for direction.


If the price breaks 47.16 resistance on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 41.49 support level on close daily bar to below so the bearish reversal will be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.


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Forecast for Q3'16 - levels for GBP/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.11 10:27

GBPUSD August-September 2016 Forecast: weekly bearish with 1.2794 support level

Weekly price is located far below 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area on primary bearish market condition with 1.2794 support level to be tested for the bearish trend to be continuing:

  • The price is located to be far below 100 period SMA (100 SMA) and 200 period SMA (200 SMA) for the primary bearish condition.
  • 100 SMA is below 200 SMA for the bearish trend to be continuing.
  • The nearest support level for the pair is 1.2794.
  • The nearest resistance levels for the pair are 1.3480 and 1.5444.

If the price breaks 1.2794 support level on weekly close bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.
If the price breaks 1.3480 resistance level to above on weekly bar so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.
If the price breaks 1.5444 resistance level so the reversal of the weekly price movement to the primary bullish market condition will be started.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close the price to break 1.3480 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.2794 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish


Resistance
 Support
1.34801.2794
1.5444N/A

SUMMARY : bearish

TREND : breakdown

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Gold is Reaching at 1270

Sergey Golubev, 2013.07.01 21:04

How can we know: correction, or bullish etc (in case of using indicator for example)?

well ... let's take AbsoluteStrength indicator from MT5 CodeBase.

bullish (Bull market) :

bearish (Bear market) :

ranging (choppy market - means: buy and sell on the same time) :


flat (sideways market - means: no buy and no sell) :

correction :

correction in a bear market (Bear Market Rally) :



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.12 17:17

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD: U.S. Advance Retail Sales

2016-08-12 12:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

==========

From MarketWatch:

  • "U.S. retail sales were little-changed in July, down from a gain of 0.8% in June, the Commerce Department reported. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected growth of 0.4% on the month, compared with an original estimate of 0.6% growth in June. Auto sales rose 1.1% in July, representing the strongest result since April. But excluding autos, retail-sales growth slumped 0.3% last month—the weakest reading since January, after a 0.9% gain in the prior month."
  • "Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, estimated that "total-real consumption, including services, starting the third quarter up at about a 3% annual rate from the second-quarter average. The net result is still solid growth," O’Sullivan said."
  • "Shepherdson said that the data fit with a 2.5% forecast for third quarter GDP, up from the 1.2% rate in the second quarter."

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EUR/USD M5: 56 pips price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news event


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GBP/USD M5: 69 pips price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news event


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AUD/USD M5: 46 pips price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news event



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EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 14.08 - 21.08: daily ranging inside Ichimoku cloud for direction

Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.14 07:39

Daily price broke one of the 'reversal' Senkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator together with trendline to above: the price broke this line to be located inside Ichimoku cloud in the bearish ranging area of the chart waiting for the direction. Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the trend to be on ranging waiting for breakout/breakdown, and Trend Strength inticator is evaluating the future possible trend as the possible daily bullish reversal.

If D1 price breaks 1.1045 support level on close bar together with descending triangle pattern to below so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
If D1 price breaks 1.1233 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the bullish reversal will be started.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.1233 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.1045 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging
Resistance
Support
1.12331.1072
N/A1.0931

SUMMARY : ranging bearish

TREND : bearish

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GBPUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 14.08 - 21.08: daily bearish with 1.28 target

Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.14 07:58

Daily price is located below Ichimoku cloud for the bearish market condition: the price is breaking 1.2935 support level for the bearish trend to be continuing with 1.2795 nearest bearish daily target to re-enter.

If D1 price breaks 1.2935 support level on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing with 1.2795 nearest target.
If D1 price breaks 1.3371 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started with the good possibility to the bullish reversal.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.3371 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.2935 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish
Resistance
Support
1.33711.2935
N/A1.2795

SUMMARY : bearish


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EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 14.08 - 21.08: daily ranging inside Ichimoku cloud for direction

Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.15 16:19

New daily bar was opened inside Ichimoku cloud which is indicating the ranging market condition for the week. Support/resistance levels are the same ones, for example:

If D1 price breaks 1.1045 support level on close bar together with descending triangle pattern to below so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
If D1 price breaks 1.1233 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the bullish reversal will be started.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.


Chinkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator broke the price to above for the possible breakout so the most likely scenarios for the daily price movement for the week are the following:

  • ranging inside Ichimoku cloud, or
  • 1.1233 resistance level to be broken by the price for the bullish reversal.