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Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.17 09:57
Trading News Events: Trading the News: U.K. Jobless Claims Change (adapted from the article)
Bullish USD Trade
is located below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bearish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within the narrow support/resistance levels waiting for the direction of the bearish trend to be continuing or the seconary bear market rally to be starte.
Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.17 16:16
AUD/USD Ahead of Employment Data - intra-day bearish; daily breakdown with correction (adapted from the article)
"The AUD/USD continues to decline from yesterday’s high at .7749. This
move in price has been guided by a descending trendline, which is drawn
below by connecting a series of swing highs over the last two trading
sessions. Aussie traders should continue to monitor this line ahead of
today’s employment data as an ongoing point of resistance. Expectations
for AUD Employment Change (July) figures are set at 10k, and any
deviation from this value may result in a significant shift in the short
term pricing of the AUD/USD."
is on bearish market condition for 0.7614 support level to be testing together with ascending triangle pattern to below for the bearish trend to be continuing. If the price breaks 0.7614 support level to below on close M15 bar so the bearish breakdown will be resumed, otherwise - ranging bearish within the levels.
D1 price located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is started with the secondary correction on open daily bar for now with Chinkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator which is crossing the price to below for the good possible breakdown.
"The AUD/USD can currently be seen trading to new daily lows at .7615.
The Grid Sight Index (GSI) is currently highlighting a short term
downtrend, with the pair printing a series of lower lows in early
trading. After reviewing 23,227,069 pricing points, GSI has indicated
that price action has continued to decline 21 pips or more in 46% of the
13 matching historical events. Today’s primary bearish distribution is
found at .7596. A move through this point would place the AUD/USD at
both new weekly and daily lows."
SUMMARY : daily correction within the bullish
Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.17 20:20
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and GBP/USD: FOMC Meeting Minutes
2016-08-17 18:00 GMT | [USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes]
[USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the FOMC's most recent meeting, providing
in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that
influenced their vote on where to set interest rates.
Fed minutes: Some FOMC voters thought a rate hike may be needed soon (based on CNBC article)
EUR/USD M5: 53 pips range price movement by FOMC Meeting Minutes news event
GBP/USD M5: 82 pips range price movement by FOMC Meeting Minutes news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.18 14:53
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
2016-08-18 12:30 GMT | [USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in Philadelphia.
EUR/USD M5: 21 pips range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news event
GBP/USD M5: 25 pips range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.19 09:46
Technical Targets for GBP/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)
is on bullish ranging near and above 100 SMA/200 SMA on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart: the price is testing 1.3126 support level to below for the reversal of the price movement to the primary bearish market condition to be started
price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for GBP/USD to keep the bearish trend with 1.3270 level to be unlikely to be broke to above:
Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.19 09:50
Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)
is located above 100 SMA/200 SMA for the bullish market condition: the price was bounced from 1.1365 resistance level for the ranging to be started within
the following support/resistance
bearish reversal level is 1.1130 support, and if the price breaks this
level to below on close H4 bar so the reversal of the intra-day price
movement from the bullish to the primary bearish market condition will
price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for EUR/USD to be continuing with the bullish trend up to 1.1430/35 level as the target:
Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.20 08:46
Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CNH and GOLD (based on the article)
Dollar Index - "While the market is only pricing in a 50-50 chance that the Fed will hike rates this year;
the contrast to the desperate and persistent stimulus programs form the
ECB, BoJ and BoE raise the US currency’s profile. This past week in
fact, we saw a remarkable series of volatile days for the US Dollar founded on changing tides in speculation for Fed timing based on the rhetoric of FOMC
members and a few key pieces of data. It is worth noting, however, that
the currency’s reaction didn’t hang on every word spoken by the central
bankers. Many times volatility would follow the course of skepticism
after a member (Dudley, Williams, Bullard) attempted to crack the
market’s skepticism of hikes in 2016."
EUR/USD - "The prospects for European interest rates are
even worse than that of the US, however; at some point the Euro will
need to trade on its own merits. Recent ECB rhetoric suggests the bank
is in a "wait and see" mode as it does not want to ease monetary policy
further until it sees further signs of persistently low inflation and
growth. Its main refinancing rate already stands at 0.00% while its
deposit facility rate is strongly negative at -0.40%. Further policy
easing seems likely as Overnight Index Swaps predict 20 percent odds of a
further rate cut in September. ECB officials have nonetheless expressed
discomfort from cutting rates further into negative territory; at a
certain point interest rate expectations may have little marginal effect
on the EUR."
USD/JPY - "So, details continue to line-up for this
upcoming September Bank of Japan meeting to be very, very interesting.
The big question is when markets might actually begin to try to
anticipate this weakening in the Yen, as the currency is continuing to
trade near longer-term resistance levels against many major currencies,
including the psychological ¥100.00-spot against the U.S. Dollar."
AUD/USD - "A mostly quiet economic data docket in the
week ahead will keep the spotlight on this narrative as all eyes turn to
a speech from Fed Chair Yellen at the annual Jackson Hole symposium.
The gathering has emerged as a venue for key announcements of Fed policy
intentions in recent years. If Williams’ retreat last week is
representative of Fed leadership’s efforts to corral disparate FOMC
members and present a unified hawkish posture, this will be the
opportunity for Yellen to drive that message home. The Australian Dollar
is likely to find itself on the defensive if this proves to be the
case, suffering at the hands of an adverse shift in yield spreads as
well as the likely onset of risk aversion."
USD/CAD - "As encouraging as the August Bull Market in
Oil has been, the non-Oil sector has been very weak and the current
price of Oil at less than $50/bbl is still providing negative margins
for many E&P firms in Canada. Unfortunately, if we begin to hear
from the Bank of Canada about potential easing, we could quickly see the
gains of the Canadian Dollar dissipate in a hurry."
USD/CNH - "In the coming week, this wrestling may continue as a primary theme
amid a light Chinese calendar. Major event risk will likely come from
trading counterparts, including measures for US labor and housing
markets for the month of July. Fed Chair Yellen’s speech may bring some
volatility to FX markets but is less likely to change the fact that FOMC
members are holding divergent views towards imminent rate hikes. The
odds of a hike in September is at 24% and 28.9% in November, so
relatively low. As our Currency Analyst James Stanley discussed, the marginal utility of rate hike fears is diminishing. Without a high probability of a Fed rate hike, the Dollar/Yuan is less likely to break the pivotal 6.7000-psychological level."
GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Interestingly enough, this week’s range was
even smaller at just 1.76% - (smallest weekly range since 12/25/2015).
The last time range was this contracted was just one week before the
2016 open which marked strongest quarterly rally since 3Q of 1986.
That’s all to say that gold prices are primed for volatility in the
coming weeks. We’ll maintain a neutral bias for now as we continue to
hold the monthly opening range. Levels remain unchanged."
EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 21.08 - 28.08: Fibo resistance with ascending triangle to be broken for the daily bullish to be resumed
Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.20 14:52
Daily price broke 100 SMA/200 SMA ranging reversal area for the primary bullish market condition:
SUMMARY : bullish
GBPUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 21.08 - 28.08: bearish ranging within narrow s/r levels
Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.20 15:20
Daily price is located below 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area for the primary bearish market condition within the following narrow support/resistance levels:
SUMMARY : bearish
Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.22 07:07
EUR/USD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - breaking key support level for the correction to be continuing
H4 price is located to be above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price was started with the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish market condition by 1.1270 support level to be breaking for the correction to be continuing.