Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 185

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.17 09:57

Trading News Events: Trading the News: U.K. Jobless Claims Change (adapted from the article)

  • "Even though U.K. Jobless Claims are projected to increase another 9.0K in July, signs of stronger wage growth may keep the British Pound afloat, with GBP/USD at risk of staging a larger recovery should the data tame market expectation for additional monetary support."
  • "The Bank of England (BoE) is widely anticipated to further embark on its easing cycle this year as ‘a majority of members expect to support a further cut in Bank Rate to its effective lower bound,’ but the central bank may move to the sidelines after delivering the comprehensive easing packing earlier this month especially as Governor Mark Carney rules out a zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) for the U.K."


Bullish USD Trade

  • "Need green, five-minute candle following the print to consider a long GBP/USD trade."
  • "If market reaction favors buying sterling, long GBP/USD with two separate position."
  • "Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
  • "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit."
Bearish USD Trade
  • "Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short GBP/USD trade."
  • "Implement same setup as the bullish British Pound trade, just in the opposite direction."


Daily price is located below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bearish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within the narrow support/resistance levels waiting for the direction of the bearish trend to be continuing or the seconary bear market rally to be starte.

  • If D1 price breaks 1.3370 resistance level to above on close daily bar so the local uptrend as the seconary rally will be started.
  • If price breaks 1.2795 support on close daily bar to below so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.17 16:16

AUD/USD Ahead of Employment Data - intra-day bearish; daily breakdown with correction (adapted from the article)

"The AUD/USD continues to decline from yesterday’s high at .7749. This move in price has been guided by a descending trendline, which is drawn below by connecting a series of swing highs over the last two trading sessions. Aussie traders should continue to monitor this line ahead of today’s employment data as an ongoing point of resistance. Expectations for AUD Employment Change (July) figures are set at 10k, and any deviation from this value may result in a significant shift in the short term pricing of the AUD/USD."

M15 price is on bearish market condition for 0.7614 support level to be testing together with ascending triangle pattern to below for the bearish trend to be continuing. If the price breaks 0.7614 support level to below on close M15 bar so the bearish breakdown will be resumed, otherwise - ranging bearish within the levels.


D1 price located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is started with the secondary correction on open daily bar for now with Chinkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator which is crossing the price to below for the good possible breakdown.

"The AUD/USD can currently be seen trading to new daily lows at .7615. The Grid Sight Index (GSI) is currently highlighting a short term downtrend, with the pair printing a series of lower lows in early trading. After reviewing 23,227,069 pricing points, GSI has indicated that price action has continued to decline 21 pips or more in 46% of the 13 matching historical events. Today’s primary bearish distribution is found at .7596. A move through this point would place the AUD/USD at both new weekly and daily lows."

  • If the price breaks 0.7755 resistance level so the primary daily bullish trend will be resumed.
  • If daily price breaks 0.7596 support to below on close bar so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish market condition will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
0.77550.7596
N/A
0.7420


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 0.7596 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 0.7755 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: correction

SUMMARY : daily correction within the bullish


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.17 20:20

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and GBP/USD: FOMC Meeting Minutes

2016-08-17 18:00 GMT | [USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes]

[USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the FOMC's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates.

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Fed minutes: Some FOMC voters thought a rate hike may be needed soon (based on CNBC article)

  • "Some voting Federal Reserve policymakers expect that a U.S. interest rate increase will be needed soon, although there is general agreement that more data is needed before such a move, according to the minutes from the Fed's July policy meeting."
  • "Some ... members anticipated that economic conditions would soon warrant taking another step in removing policy accommodation," the Fed said in the minutes, which were released on Wednesday."
  • "After the release of the minutes, the U.S. dollar hit a session low against the yen at about 100.15 yen. The euro touched a session high against the dollar of about $1.1295."

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EUR/USD M5: 53 pips range price movement by FOMC Meeting Minutes news event


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GBP/USD M5: 82 pips range price movement by FOMC Meeting Minutes news event



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.18 14:53

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

2016-08-18 12:30 GMT | [USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in Philadelphia.

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EUR/USD M5: 21 pips range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news event


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GBP/USD M5: 25 pips range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news event



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.19 09:46

Technical Targets for GBP/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

H4 price is on bullish ranging near and above 100 SMA/200 SMA on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart: the price is testing 1.3126 support level to below for the reversal of the price movement to the primary bearish market condition to be started


Daily price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for GBP/USD to keep the bearish trend with 1.3270 level to be unlikely to be broke to above:

"While we anticipated a corrective rebound to 1.3170 (see update on Wednesday), the pace of the up-move was unexpected. The high has been 1.3186 so far and with no signs of weakness just yet, the current GBP strength appears to have room to extend further to 1.3270 even though the odds for such a move are clearly lower (an unlikely clear break above 1.3270 would indicate that GBP has entered a bullish phase). All said, this pair is expected to stay underpinned in the next few days unless there is a move back below 1.3020."


  • If daily price breaks 1.3319 resistance level on close bar to above so the local uptrebd as the bear market rally will be started.
  • If daily price breaks 1.2794 support level on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.19 09:50

Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

H4 price is located above 100 SMA/200 SMA for the bullish market condition: the price was bounced from 1.1365 resistance level for the ranging to be started within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 1.1365 resistance level located above 100 SMA/100 SMA in the bullish trend to be continuing, and
  • 1.1283 support level located in the beginning fo the secondary correction to be started.

The bearish reversal level is 1.1130 support, and if the price breaks this level to below on close H4 bar so the reversal of the intra-day price movement from the bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.


Daily price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for EUR/USD to be continuing with the bullish trend up to 1.1430/35 level as the target:

"The immediate bullish target that was indicated on Wednesday was quickly met as EUR surged to an overnight high of 1.1365. While the outlook is still clearly bullish and the next level to focus on is at 1.1430/35 (high on the day of Brexit), the pace of the current rally appears to be unsustainable and those who are long should look to take some profit on any approach to 1.1430/35."


  • If daily price breaks 1.1365 resistance level on close bar so the bullish trend will be resumed.
  • If daily price breaks 1.1267 support level on close bar so the local downtrend as the secondary correction will be started
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.20 08:46

Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CNH and GOLD (based on the article)

Dollar Index - "While the market is only pricing in a 50-50 chance that the Fed will hike rates this year; the contrast to the desperate and persistent stimulus programs form the ECB, BoJ and BoE raise the US currency’s profile. This past week in fact, we saw a remarkable series of volatile days for the US Dollar founded on changing tides in speculation for Fed timing based on the rhetoric of FOMC members and a few key pieces of data. It is worth noting, however, that the currency’s reaction didn’t hang on every word spoken by the central bankers. Many times volatility would follow the course of skepticism after a member (Dudley, Williams, Bullard) attempted to crack the market’s skepticism of hikes in 2016.


EUR/USD - "The prospects for European interest rates are even worse than that of the US, however; at some point the Euro will need to trade on its own merits. Recent ECB rhetoric suggests the bank is in a "wait and see" mode as it does not want to ease monetary policy further until it sees further signs of persistently low inflation and growth. Its main refinancing rate already stands at 0.00% while its deposit facility rate is strongly negative at -0.40%. Further policy easing seems likely as Overnight Index Swaps predict 20 percent odds of a further rate cut in September. ECB officials have nonetheless expressed discomfort from cutting rates further into negative territory; at a certain point interest rate expectations may have little marginal effect on the EUR."


USD/JPY - "So, details continue to line-up for this upcoming September Bank of Japan meeting to be very, very interesting. The big question is when markets might actually begin to try to anticipate this weakening in the Yen, as the currency is continuing to trade near longer-term resistance levels against many major currencies, including the psychological ¥100.00-spot against the U.S. Dollar."


AUD/USD - "A mostly quiet economic data docket in the week ahead will keep the spotlight on this narrative as all eyes turn to a speech from Fed Chair Yellen at the annual Jackson Hole symposium. The gathering has emerged as a venue for key announcements of Fed policy intentions in recent years. If Williams’ retreat last week is representative of Fed leadership’s efforts to corral disparate FOMC members and present a unified hawkish posture, this will be the opportunity for Yellen to drive that message home. The Australian Dollar is likely to find itself on the defensive if this proves to be the case, suffering at the hands of an adverse shift in yield spreads as well as the likely onset of risk aversion."


USD/CAD - "As encouraging as the August Bull Market in Oil has been, the non-Oil sector has been very weak and the current price of Oil at less than $50/bbl is still providing negative margins for many E&P firms in Canada. Unfortunately, if we begin to hear from the Bank of Canada about potential easing, we could quickly see the gains of the Canadian Dollar dissipate in a hurry."


USD/CNH - "In the coming week, this wrestling may continue as a primary theme amid a light Chinese calendar. Major event risk will likely come from trading counterparts, including measures for US labor and housing markets for the month of July. Fed Chair Yellen’s speech may bring some volatility to FX markets but is less likely to change the fact that FOMC members are holding divergent views towards imminent rate hikes. The odds of a hike in September is at 24% and 28.9% in November, so relatively low. As our Currency Analyst James Stanley discussed, the marginal utility of rate hike fears is diminishing. Without a high probability of a Fed rate hike, the Dollar/Yuan is less likely to break the pivotal 6.7000-psychological level.


GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Interestingly enough, this week’s range was even smaller at just 1.76% - (smallest weekly range since 12/25/2015). The last time range was this contracted was just one week before the 2016 open which marked strongest quarterly rally since 3Q of 1986. That’s all to say that gold prices are primed for volatility in the coming weeks. We’ll maintain a neutral bias for now as we continue to hold the monthly opening range. Levels remain unchanged."



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EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 21.08 - 28.08: Fibo resistance with ascending triangle to be broken for the daily bullish to be resumed

Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.20 14:52

Daily price broke 100 SMA/200 SMA ranging reversal area for the primary bullish market condition:

  • The price is on testing with Fibo resistance level at 1.1366 to above for the bullish trend to be continuing.
  • RSI indicator is estimating the bullish ranging to be started.
  • Ascending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed from below for the bullish condition to be resumed.
If D1 price breaks Fibo resistance level at 1.1366 to above on close bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
If D1 price breaks Fibo support level at 1.1084 from above to below so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If not so the price will be bullish ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.1366 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.1084 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging
Resistance
Support
1.13661.1084
N/A1.0911

SUMMARY : bullish

TREND : ranging

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GBPUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 21.08 - 28.08: bearish ranging within narrow s/r levels

Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.20 15:20

Daily price is located below 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area for the primary bearish market condition within the following narrow support/resistance levels:

  • Fibo resistance level at 1.3375 located in the beginning of the secondary bear market rally to be started, and
  • Fibo support level at 1.2876 located in the primary bearish area of the chart.
If D1 price breaks Fibo resistance level at 1.3375 to above on close bar so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.
If D1 price breaks Fibo support level at 1.2876 from above to below so the the primary bearish trend will be resumed with 1.2795 level as a nearest daily bearish target to re-enter.
If not so the price will be bearish ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.3375 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.2876 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging
Resistance
Support
1.33751.2876
1.41911.2795

SUMMARY : bearish

TREND : ranging

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EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 21.08 - 28.08: Fibo resistance with ascending triangle to be broken for the daily bullish to be resumed

Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.22 07:07

EUR/USD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - breaking key support level for the correction to be continuing

H4 price is located to be above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price was started with the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish market condition by 1.1270 support level to be breaking for the correction to be continuing.

If H4 price breaks 1.1270 support level on close bar together with descending triangle pattern to below so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the bullish market condition will be continuing.
If H4 price breaks 1.1366 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the bullish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close H4 price to break 1.1366 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch H4 price to break 1.1270 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging
Resistance
Support
1.13321.1270
1.13661.1153

SUMMARY : bullish

TREND : correction