Forecast and levels for EURO - page 18

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.02 11:13

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, December 03 - December 10 (based on the article)

EUR/USD struggled to continue advancing as the dollar found its footing. The upcoming week features a constant stream of data including PMIs, industrial output and more. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week.


  1. Eurogroup Meetings: Monday. Progress in Greece’s program, political uncertainty in Germany, Italy, and still in Spain, and Brexit are all on the agenda.
  2. Spanish Unemployment Change: Monday, 8:00. A rise of 56.8K in unemployment was quite disappointing in October, despite the seasonal effect.
  3. Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 9:30.
  4. PPI: Monday, 10:00. A more modest rise is likely now.
  5. Services PMIs: Tuesday morning: 8:15 for Spain, 8:45 for Italy, final French figures at 8:50, final German figures at 8:55 and the final euro-zone numbers at 9:00.
  6. Retail Sales: Tuesday, 10:00. In September, the volume of sales increased by 0.7%, a recovery after two months of drops.
  7. GDP (revised): Tuesday, 10:00. A confirmation of the figure is expected now.
  8. German Factory Orders: Wednesday, 7:00. We may see a slide for the month of October.
  9. Retail PMI: Tuesday, 9:10. The number for October could be slightly higher.
  10. German Industrial Production: Thursday, 7:00.
  11. French Trade Balance: Thursday, 7:45.
  12. German Trade Balance: Friday, 7:00. The high surplus keeps the euro bid.
  13. French Industrial Production: Friday, 7:45.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.03 08:58

EUR/USD - long-term rally to the bullish reversal; 1.2091 is the long-term resistance for bullish (based on the article)

Price on the monthly chart is near and below Ichimoku cloud for the trying to be reversed to the primary bullish market condition. Chinkou Span line broke historical price to above for the secondary rally within the bearish trend, and the price is testing resistance level at 1.2091 to above to be reversed to the primary bullish market condition.


  • "Heading into last week we were optimistic on the prospect of a higher EUR/USD, and while it was relatively unchanged when the dust settled there is reason to believe we will see higher prices in the days ahead. But if the euro doesn’t get into gear soon it runs the risk of breaking lower. So, we’ll approach this with an objective eye and continue to lean on the trend-line rising up from last month’s low as key to the near-term outlook. It was thoroughly tested during a 24-hr stretch on Thursday and Friday. There was some ‘help’ Friday on the Flynn/Trump headline which spooked dollar longs across the board, but looking at this from a pure technical standpoint – the line held. As long as it continues to do-so, then a rally is seen as likely to continue to mount towards the yearly highs."
  • "Levels on the top-side to watch are 11961, 12005, 12034, and then the big high at 12092. We may or may not see the yearly high challenged this coming week, but we’ll stay the course as long as there isn’t a break back below the aforementioned trend-line, and at worst, if that trend-line breaks we’ll give it to last week’s swing-low at 11809 before turning neutral at the least, if not flipping the script all together. In which case, attention will be placed on the area surrounding 11700 as it has been quite important on several occasions August."

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The chart was made on MN1 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 4 except the following indicators (free to download):


 

Before New Year there are 25 days left. That is 4 weeks, that is, only 4 week candles:

December 8 will be NonFarm. Dec. 13 will be a decision on the interest rate for the USD, and Dec. 14 - the interest rate on EUR. It seems to me (this is in my subjective sensations), in these days nothing serious will happen. Therefore, most likely by the New Year EURUSD will remain between 1.16 and 1.20. Waveformers will tell you that they are expecting the completion of the fifth wave (see graph). But it is not known when this completion will occur. I think this will be the end after the New Year.

 
Victor Ziborov:

Before New Year there are 25 days left. That is 4 weeks, that is, only 4 week candles:

December 8 will be NonFarm. Dec. 13 will be a decision on the interest rate for the USD, and Dec. 14 - the interest rate on EUR. It seems to me (this is in my subjective sensations), in these days nothing serious will happen. Therefore, most likely by the New Year EURUSD will remain between 1.16 and 1.20. Waveformers will tell you that they are expecting the completion of the fifth wave (see graph). But it is not known when this completion will occur. I think this will be the end after the New Year.


are you opening any trades in EURUSD currently?

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.08 11:34

Trading News Events: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (based on article)

The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report by fuel the near-term decline in EUR/USD as employment is projected to increase another 195K in November, while Average Hourly Earnings are expected to climb an annualized 2.7% during the same period.

What’s Expected:


Why Is This Event Important:

A further improvement in labor market dynamics accompanied by signs of stronger wage growth may heighten the appeal of the greenback as it encourages the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to further normalize monetary policy in 2018, and the dollar may exhibit a more bullish behavior over the remainder of the year should the central bank stay on its current course of delivering three rate-hikes per year.

However, another series of lackluster data prints may encourage the FOMC to adopt a more cautious tone at its last interest rate decision on December 13, and the greenback may face a more bearish fate if the fresh developments drag on interest-rate expectations.

How To Trade This Event Risk

  • EUR/USD stands at risk for a larger pullback as it snaps the monthly opening range, with the pair carving a fresh series of lower highs & lows following the failed attempt to break above the 1.1960 (38.2% retracement) hurdle.
  • The Relative Strength Index (RSI) highlights a similar dynamic as it fails to preserve the bullish formation carried over from November, with a break below the 50-Day SMA (1.1758) raising the risk for a move back towards 1.1670 (50% retracement).
  • Next downside region of interest comes in around 1.1580 (100% expansion), which sits above the November-low (1.1554), followed by the Fibonacci overlap around 1.1480 (78.6% expansion) to 1.1500 (78.6% expansion).
Potential Price Targets For The Release
EURUSD Daily



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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.10 08:08

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, December 10 - December 17 (based on the article)

EUR/USD failed to hold onto higher ground in a mixed week. The ECB meeting is clearly the big event of the upcoming week, but not the only topics on the agenda. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week.


  1. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 10:00. A score of 17.9 points is on the cards now. The all euro-zone figures stood at 30.9 points and 30.2 is forecast now.
  2. Mario Draghi talks:  Tuesday, 19:00. The president of the European Central Bank will speak at an event in Frankfurt less than 48 hours ahead of ECB meeting. He could drop a hint about the tone, but in such proximity to the event, it is more likely that Draghi will be more cautious.
  3. German CPI (final): Wednesday, 7:00. The German figure will likely be confirmed now.
  4. German WPI:  Wednesday, 7:00. Back in October, prices remained flat.
  5. Employment Change: Wednesday, 10:00. Another gain of 0.4% is forecast now.
  6. Industrial Production: Wednesday, 10:00. A drop of 0.2% is projected.
  7. French CPI (final): Thursday, 7:45. This number will probably confirmed now. It all feeds into the all euro-zone number.
  8. Flash PMIs: Thursday morning: 8:00 for France, 8:30 for Germany and 9:00 for the whole euro-zone.
  9. Rate decision: Thursday, 12:45, press conference at 13:30. The big news was out already at the October meeting. The ECB will halve the volume of its bond-buys in January to 30 billion euros per month and the program will run through September 2018. Draghi left the door open to what happens afterward, andthat was a dovish sign that sent the euro down. Since then, weak inflation reads, especially with core CPI slipping to 0.9%, vindicated his dovishness. This time, no changes are expected, but the ECB will publish new staff forecasts for inflation and growth. A downgrade of inflation forecasts could serve to weaken the euro and Draghi could join in. However, it is hard to ignore the robust growth, especially in Germany(0.8% q/q). As usual, Draghi will continue his balancing act. If he talks about ending QE after September, the euro will jump, but this is unlikely. The ECB can wait until around June to make such future announcements.
  10. Trade Balance: Friday, 10:00. The figure for October will likely be similar: 24.6 billion.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.11 10:53

EUR/USD - daily ranging inside Ichimoku cloud for direction (based on the article)

Daily price is located inside Ichimoku cloud for the ranging within the following s/r levels:

1.1865 resistance for the bullish trend to be resumed with 1.1961 level as a daily bullish target, and
1.1709 support level located in the beginning of the bearish rreversal to be started with 1.1650/1.1554 daily bearish targets


  • "Euro selling pressure struggled to sustain momentum after a 6-day losing streak brought the currency to the lowest level in three weeks against the US Dollar. Still, a break of rising trend support set from early November seems to suggest the near-term bias continues to favor weakness."
  • "A break below the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1.1756 confirmed on a daily closing basis sees the next downside barrier at 1.1692, the 50% level. Alternatively, a bounce back above the 23.6% Fib at 1.1834 opens the door for a challenge of trend line support-turned-resistance, now at 1.1934. The short EUR/USD position triggered at 1.1824 hit its initial profit target and partial profit has been booked. Remaining exposure continues to be in play to capture any follow-on weakness. The stop-loss has been trailed down to the breakeven even level."

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.11 15:23

EUR into ECB with Credit Agricole: "We remain long EUR/USD" (based on the article)

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2017-12-14 12:45 GMT | [EUR - Minimum Bid Rate]

  • past data is 0.00%
  • forecast data is 0.00%
  • actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - Minimum Bid Rate] = Interest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system. 

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Weekly price is on bullish breakout: the price broke Ichimoku cloud to above to be reversed to the primary bullish market condition. For now, the price is on ranging within 1.1554/1.1961 support/resistance level for for secondary correction to be started or for the bullish trend to be resumed.


  • "Any ECB message that highlights QE as positive without adding to its dovish forward guidance could boost Eurozone stocks and EUR. We remain long EUR/USD and EUR/CHF."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.12 09:45

EUR/USD - ranging within 55 SMA/200 SMA; 1.1961 is the key (based on the article)

Intra-day price on H4 chart is located within 55 SMA/200 SMA ranging area waiting for the direction of the strong trend to be started.

If the price breaks high for the last monthly bar at 1.1961 so the bullish trend will be resumed, otherwise - ranging within the levels.


  • "EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 44.5% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.25 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 6.5% higher than yesterday and 15.5% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.1% higher than yesterday and 11.8% lower from last week."
  • "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current EURUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short."

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The chart was made on H4 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 4 except the following indicator (free to download):

 

Today, December 13, 2017 at 10:00 on London there will be a meeting of the Fed, where, according to forecasts, will decide to raise the interest rate by a quarter of a point. This should push EURUSD up:

It just coincides with the technical fifth wave of Elliott. I think so. But life, as you know, presents surprises.

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