Forecast and levels for AUD - page 13

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.04 08:52

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Retail Sales and range price movement 

2018-04-04 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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From official report :

  • "The trend estimate rose 0.4% in February 2018. This follows a rise of 0.3% in January 2018 and a rise of 0.3% in December 2017."
  • "The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.6% in February 2018. This follows a rise of 0.2% in January 2018 and a fall of 0.5% in December 2017."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australia Retail Sales news event 

AUDUSD

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5: 


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.07 18:28

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)

AUDUSD chart by Metatrader 5

AUD/USD - "The Australian economy is revving quite nicely in some areas, notably the manufacturing sector where activity hit a record high last month according to the latest Purchasing Managers Index survey released last week. Given all of the above the currency is likely to remain under some pressure this week. Of course more positive trade headlines- or a simple absence of negative ones- could buy it some respite, as could more upbeat domestic data. We’ll get the latest snapshots of both business and consumer confidence in the coming week."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.09 09:30

AUD/USD - daily bearish ranging; weekly ranging for direction (based on the article)

Daily price is on ranging below Ichimoku cloud for the primary bearish market condition: the price is testing 0.7642 support level to below for the bearish trend to be continuing.

AUDUSD Brainwashinf chart by MT5

  • "The Australian Dollar seems to be struggling to pick a direction to choose from against its US counterpart as of late. In the meantime, well-established support and resistance levels have formed and the gap between the two is slowly shrinking. These are the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7651 and the descending line from March 16th respectively."
  • "Before AUD/USD got to where it is now, the pair has essentially been in a downtrend since February. Since then, a falling wedge bullish pattern has formed. However, for confirmation, the pair will have to ascend to and break above the upper line of the formation. Positive RSI divergence shows that momentum to the downside is ebbing and it hints that prices may soon turn higher."
  • "Beyond the aforementioned level, the next resistance target is the 61.8% retracement at 0.7743. A push above that exposes the upper line of the falling wedge. Should AUD/USD break through, it may soon find itself struggling to get past the 50% midpoint of the retracement."

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The chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.15 10:14

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)

AUDUSD chart by Metatrader 5

AUD/USD - "The Australian Dollar showed little reaction to a broadly stronger set of Chinese trader figures Friday, perhaps because the ongoing tariff spat between Washington and Beijing has rendered them less useful as a likely gauge to the future. However, that trade dispute with the US could see these data series weaken into the next quarter, absent a resolution which seems elusive at present. It is notable that China’s trade surplus with the US increased by 19.4%."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.19 06:16

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Employment Change and range price movement 

2018-04-19 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

  • past data is -6.3K
  • forecast data is 20.3K
  • actual data is 4.9K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

==========

From official report :

  • "Employment increased 4,900 to 12,484,100. Full-time employment decreased 19,900 to 8,514,100 and part-time employment increased 24,800 to 3,970,000."
  • "Unemployment rate remained steady at 5.5%."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australia Employment Change news event 

AUDUSD chart by Metatrader 5

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with the following indicator from CodeBase:


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.24 16:01

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Consumer Price Index and range price movement 

2018-04-24 02:30 GMT | [AUD - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

From official report :

  • "rose 0.4% this quarter, compared with a rise of 0.6% in the December quarter 2017."
  • "rose 1.9% over the twelve months to the March quarter 2018, compared with a rise of 1.9% over the twelve months to the December quarter 2017."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australia Consumer Price Index news event 

AUDUSD by Metatrader 5

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.05.04 14:54

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, AUD/USD and USD/CAD: Non-Farm Payrolls

2018-05-04 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

  • past data is 135K
  • forecast data is 190K
  • actual data is 164K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] =Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

From official report :

  • "Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 164,000 in April, and the unemploymentrate edged down to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, manufacturing, health care, and mining."

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

Dollar Index by MT5

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

AUDUSD by MT5

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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

USDCAD by MT5

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.05.08 07:07

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Retail Sales and range price movement 

2018-05-08 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Retail Sales]

  • past data is 0.6%
  • forecast data is 0.2%
  • actual data is 0.0% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

==========

From official report :

  • "The trend estimate rose 0.3% in March 2018. This follows a rise of 0.3% in February 2018 and a rise of 0.3% in January 2018."
  • "The seasonally adjusted estimate was relatively unchanged (0.0%) in March 2018. This follows a rise of 0.6% in February 2018 and a rise of 0.2% in January 2018."

==========

AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australia Retail Sales news event 

AUDUSD by Metatrader 5

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5: 


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

AUD Election

TraderInput, 2018.05.15 01:02

#AUDUSD

The approaching election in Australia is a negative for the AUD.  Perhaps the budget is a reminder that the election may come sooner than expected. The election is negative because it generates policy uncertainty and reminds the market how unstable government in Australia has been for the last decade.

The Australian economy has performed reasonably well, despite weak governments, although it has struggled to provide strong policy direction that might have helped drive the economy out of its long period, post-mining boom, of sub-trend growth since 2013.

Excessive reliance on easy monetary policy and aggressive bank lending over this period has resulted in an alarming rise in household debt and house prices. Mis-managed energy policy is widely considered to have led to under-investment and electricity shortages in the last year.


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.05.27 14:25

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)

AUD/USD by MT5

AUD/USD - "The coming week offers investors plentiful insight into US economic doings. Consumer confidence, GDP and personal spending data will all be released, as will May’s crucial employment figures."

============

The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.


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