Forecast and levels for Nikkei - page 3

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.30 07:41

Nikkei 225 - daily bullish ranging within narrow 22,795/22,210 levels for direction (based on the article)

Daily price is above Ichimoku cloud for the ranging within 22,795 resistance level for the bullish trend to be resumed and 22,210 support level for the secondary correction to be started.

• "The index remains at first glance very much where it was; a shade below this year’s overall highs but certainly holding on at a relatively elevated level. However, appearances can be deceptive. For there have been some changes to the picture and they’re quite encouraging ones for any bulls out there even if they’re hard to spot. For one thing the trading range has narrowed somewhat, in that its base is now clearly a little higher. Last week we were looking at 21,853, now it’s more like 21,173. At face value this looks encouraging. Not only are we seeing “higher lows”, but the pattern looks broadly consolidative which may mean that the index pushes on higher once it breaks."
• "Note that the index doesn’t look either oversold or overbought to any great degree at present. That is a probably welcome change from the situation in early November. Back then it was overbought with a vengeance. Now its Relative Strength Index has collapsed back to a sober 54, well below the exuberant 80-plus levels hit back then. The safety zone is generally considered to be between 30 and 70. That the Nikkei can look so relaxed at current levels is probably also a reassuring sign."

---------------- 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.01.25 16:03

Nikkei - strong bullih on medium term; 24,121 resistance is the key (based on the article)

Weekly medium-term price is on bullish breakout: the price is testing resistance level at 24,121 resistance level to above for the primary bullish trend to be continuing.

• "The Tokyo stock benchmark remains in the robust uptrend channel which has contained trade since October 27 last year. That channel encompasses this week’s rise to new 26-year highs. Incidentally that rise seems to have validated a channel top which, without it, might have looked a little spurious."
• "November 9’s intraday high used to mark not only that channel top but the only foray toward it since the formation was initiated. However, January’s peaks have so far respected the uptrend from that November 9 top, making it look a whole lot more valid."

==========

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.02.22 17:31

Nikkei 225 - daily rally and watch 22,177 level; 23,006/23,610 levels for the daily bullish reversal (based on the article)

Daily price broke Ichimoku cloud to below for the breakdown with the daily bearish reversal. After that, the price was bounced from 20,537 support level to above for the secondary rally within the primary bearish market condition to be started. If the price breaks 22,177 resistance so the rally will be continuing, and if the price breaks Senkou Span lines (23,006/23,610) to above so we may see the bullish reversal of the daily price movement.

• "The Nikkei 225’s quite dramatic fall from January’s 26-year highs seems to have been arrested. But can this last or is another leg lower already in the offing? Having peaked at 24,189 on January 23, the index fell as low as 20,452 on an intraday basis back on February 9. It has since recovered somewhat and for the last couple of weeks has been trading a daily-closing range between 22,065 and 21,160. That range looks safe enough for the moment and should probably be treated as valid at least for the next week or so. There has been a bearish crossover in the simple moving averages, whereby the 20-day has slid below its 50- and 100-day counterparts. However, coming at the same time as a quite sharp global stock down move, this may not be terribly significant. What may be more so is that the 50-day could be about to cross below the 100. That hasn’t happened yet, but it could and it might be a bearish signal if it does."
• "It’s worth bearing in mind too that the current range base is not very far away from 21117.8. That level is the fourth, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the Tokyo stock benchmark’s climb up from the lows of September 8 last year to the impressive highs of 2018. The final, 76.4% retracement before the rise is completely negated would come in now at 20,392.2 and that might be a level to watch if the current range gives way."

---------------- 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.03.17 08:32

Nikkei 225 - weekly correction (based on the article)

• "Japan’s Nikkei 225 remains in correction territory, 10.2% below its Jan. 23 high of 24,129.34. China’s Shanghai Composite is 8.8% below its Jan. 29 high of 3,587.03. India’s Nifty 50 is down 8.7% from its Jan. 29 high of 11,171.77. The German DAX is also about 8.7% below its Jan. 23 high of 13,596.89."
• "The Nikkei 225, Nifty 50 and German DAX set their 2018 lows between March 2 and March 7, while the Nasdaq Composite set its all-time high on March 13."
• "The weekly chart for the Nikkei 225 is negative with the average below its five-week modified at 21,988 and well above its 200-week simple moving average of 18,520. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading fell to 25.78 this week, down from 30.81 on March 9."
• "The Nikkei is below my semiannual and annual pivots of 21,961 and 22,009, respectively. Below these levels is my quarterly value level of 19,360 and above is this month’s risky level of 23,225."

============

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.05 09:10

Nikkei 225 - daily rally to bullish reversal (based on the article)

Daily price is testing resistance level at 21,630 to above for bullish reversal to be started on the secondary ranging way.

• "The Nikkei 225 has bounced quite convincingly back above a range of support which seems quite formidable once more.
  It comes in between the intraday low of February 9, which was 20,533, and the closing low of March 2 at 21,023. Now admittedly the index has been below that range recently. But it didn’t stay there for long. Moreover, it’s worth noting in passing that the range base, 20,533, is just above exactly on the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement on the Nikkei’s long rise up from the lows of mid-April, 2018 to the 26-year peaks of 2018. The heavy global falls of March 22 and 23 took the Nikkei down below that, but it had come back above the range top within four days."
• "Ever since that top has provided support, notably on Wednesday of this week when the intraday low was marked exactly there. Recent gains have seen Nikkei bulls attempt to get back toward recent highs, made in mid-March. So far they’ve been only partially successful at this however. They’ve taken the index back to March 20’s 21,453, but have been unable to push on towards that peak, which was March 13’s 22,080."

---------------- 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.05.20 09:36

Nikkei 225 - daily bullish ranging; 22,948 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is on ranging to be above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price is on testing the resistance level at 22,948 to above for the primary bullish trend to be continuing, oherwise - ranging within the levels.

• "The Nikkei 225 is right in the middle of an uptrend channel that it looks quite foolish to bet against for now. The channel itself is an extension of the Tokyo stock benchmark's long, consistent rise up from the lows of late March. It probably gives us more usable clues than would a broader band encompassing all trade since that date, as it has seen more tests of both the upside and the down."
• "That upside now comes in above the market at 23180.6, and the upper channel bound should probably regarded as solid resistance in the absence of any clear evidence to the contrary on a daily-closing basis. The lower channel bound comes in at 22780, and should provide support on the same basis. If it doesn't, reversals should find a prop at 223222, which is the first, 23/6% Fibonacci retracement of the total rise."
• "Bulls have the year's peaks in their sights once again but, before they can retake them, they'll need to erase the memory of the sharp fall which took place between January 30 and February 8. The current uptrend will get them there, but it may not do so terribly quickly."
• "There is likely to be some consolidation before that though, if not a more severe setback. The index is still flirting with overbought levels, according to its Relative Strength Index, and would stray back into clear overbought territory now on just a modest further uptick."

---------------- 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.07.05 15:03

Nikkei 225 - daily bearish breakdown (based on the article) 

• "The Nikkei 225 remains caught in a quite pervasive downtrend, which has endured since it topped out back on June 12. That peak itself was quiet significant as it came in at 23023, which is just about exactly where the bulls had been routed in their previous assault. That petered out on May 19. Coupled with the latest bull failure it looks as though we might be seeing a double top reversal for the Tokyo stock benchmark, which could well portend further significant losses."
• "However, the index remains for the moment above 21647. That’s an important level as it represents 50% retracement of the climb up from the lows of late March to those twin recent peaks of 23023. It is also the third key Fibonacci retracement level. The first two have already given way in a two-week period which began on June 19. That day's sharp fall saw the first Fibonacci level of 22378 surrendered on a daily close."

==========

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.07.26 11:00

Nikkei 225 - bullish ranging along the bearish reversal area for direction (based on the article)

• "In the bigger scheme of things, the Nikkei 225 remains in an uptrend when looking at the monthly chart below. You can see it is being supported by a rising trend line dating back to June 2016. However, its progress in 2018 so far has been rather shaky. Thus far, it has been oscillating in a range between 24,180 and 20,278. For it to make its leg move higher, it does face some obstacles ahead."
• "Zooming in on the daily chart shows that the index is also in a near-term uptrend which began earlier this month with the formation of a hammer bullish reversal candlestick formation. Since then, the Nikkei 225 also formed a near-term rising trend line. However, the index has struggled on multiple occasions to push above the May high established at 23,042 and appears to have formed a triple top bearish reversal pattern."
• "A break below near-term support could thus pave the way for its next leg lower and immediately ahead is the July 23rd low at 22,339. A push below that exposes the 23.6% and 14.6% Fibonacci extensions at 22,095 and 21,851 respectively. However, for a lasting reversal and one that could perhaps end up overturning the long-term uptrend from 2016, we would need to get below the June line and then the March low at 20,278."

---------------- 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.08.09 15:32

Nikkei 225 - weekly ranging near bearish reversal; 23,010 is the key (based on the article)

• "The Nikkei 225’s daily chart points to a touch of technical stasis, of the sort now quite common across the equity market space. The Tokyo stock benchmark has settled into a broad range since late July at what- by recent standards- are quite elevated levels. While bulls can if they like take some comfort that the market is clearly in no hurry to take cash off the table, there is clearly little impetus to push on towards recent highs, which remain just out of reach."
• "Of course, the range will break eventually but so far the Nikkei is offering chart watchers few clues as to when that day might come, or to which side it will be. As long as mid-July’s top of 22,927 remains unthreatened on a daily-closing basis we might guess that the index is probably biased lower, but that’s only a possibility. The range is fairly broad, bounded to the downside by 22,317 and to the top by 22,830, so just playing it until it breaks offers at least some opportunity."

---------------- 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.11.01 10:23

Nikkei 225 - weekly breakdown with the bearish reversal (based on the article)

• "The Nikkei 225 fell very sharply though October, as did many other global indexes, as a wave of trade-inspired risk aversion took its toll. The Tokyo stock benchmark is now more than 2,500 points below its 2018 peak, which was the 24,441 reached on October 1. However, the point at which its fall has so far halted is an interesting one. The 20,767.6 level reached in intraday trade on October 29 and 26 is just about exactly the second, 28.3% Fibonacci retracement of the rise up to this year's highs from the lows of June 2016."
• "That level has survived two downside tests in the past week and seems to be providing strong support.
  Still, the Nikkei remains under near-term pressure for as long as it remains within the daily chart downtrend channel which has contained trade on the way down from October's peaks."
• "At present, it is threatening to break above it, but has yet to do so conclusively. If it can on a daily or weekly closing basis then the bulls can once again dream of consolidating within the old range shown on the chart above. From there they might be able to build a platform from which to take on those highs again."

----------------