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Forecast and levels for Nikkei

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Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev 2016.12.26 04:42 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.24 17:18

Nikkei Q1 2017 Fundamental Forecast: Bullish (based on the article)


Fundamental Analysis 

  • "The Bank of Japan has been buying stocks for over two years now. And in September, the BoJ got unlimited-firepower for future QE-efforts by swapping to a yield-curve target rather than a rigid and set amount of bond purchases every month; and there is no end-date in sight.
  • "As long as the global ‘recovery’ continues, the Yen should remain weak as driven by the Bank of Japan’s uber-dovish policies. And with weak-Yen, Japanese stocks will likely continue to accrue in value on the basis of more earnings for exporters (weaker Yen means exporters bring back more from overseas transactions)."

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev 2017.01.04 05:37  

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.04 05:35

USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: Nikkei Japan Manufacturing PMI and 51 pips range price movement

2017-01-04 00:30 GMT | [JPY - Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)

[JPY - Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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From official report:

  • "The headline Nikkei Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ IndexTM (PMI)TM is a composite single-figure indicator of manufacturing performance. It is derived from indicators for new orders, output, employment, suppliers’ delivery times and stocks of purchases. Any figure greater than 50.0 indicates overall improvement of sector operating conditions."
  • "The headline PMI posted 52.4 in December, up from 51.3 in November, signalling a sharper improvement in manufacturing conditions in Japan. In fact, the latest reading was the highest since December last year and contributed to the strongest quarterly average since Q4 2015. The higher figure reflected increases in output, new orders and employment."

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USD/JPY M5: 51 pips price movement by Nikkei Japan Manufacturing PMI news event


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Nikkei 225 Index: pips range price movement by Nikkei Japan Manufacturing PMI news event



Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev 2017.01.24 08:34  

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.24 08:34

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/JPY and Nikkei 225 Index: Nikkei Manufacturing PMI

2017-01-24 00:30 GMT | [JPY - Flash Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)

[JPY - Flash Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

==========

From official report:

  • "Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI™ at 52.8 in January (52.4 in December), highest since March 2014."
  • "Flash Manufacturing Output Index at 53.3 (53.8 in December). Production increases at solid pace."

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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by Nikkei Manufacturing PMI news events


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Nikkei 225 Index: range price movement by Nikkei Manufacturing PMI news events



Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev 2017.02.04 11:54  

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.04 11:18

Weekly Outlook: 2017, February 05 - February 12 (based on the article)

Rate decision in Australia and New Zealand, US Crude Oil Inventories, Unemployment Claims, Consumer Sentiment and Canadian employment data. These are the highlights of this week.



  1. Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 03:30.
  2. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 15:30.
  3. New Zealand rate decision: Wednesday, 20:00.
  4. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. Economists expect new claims will reach 249,000 this week.
  5. Canadian employment data: Friday, 13:30.
  6. US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 15:00.

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev 2017.02.19 18:54  

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.18 18:22

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Nikkei 225 (based on the article)


Nikkei 225"We will look to the a top-side trend-line at around 19475 as resistance, with a break above the 2/13 high of 19519 as giving the Nikkei potential to begin an advance towards hitting 20k. It will of course need to break above 19615 for full clearance. On the downside, watch the 2/10 gap-day for a possible fill. On Friday, the market dipped slightly below the gap-day low, but closed back above. A fill of that gap would carry the Nikkei down into the lower trend-line in the 18970 vicinity, with swing lows beneath at 18805 and then 18650. A break below those levels likely means we are seeing some form of risk-off on a global basis. No notable news events on the docket to get excited about."

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev 2017.03.11 19:09  

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.11 19:08

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Nikkei 225 (based on the article)


Nikkei 225"The big event out of Japan will come on Thursday, with the BoJ meeting. Expectations are for a fairly benign outcome, with the central bank not expected to make any changes to current policy. However, with that said, as per usual, expect the unexpected and manage risk accordingly."


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