XAUUSD: SELL 4310.00, SL 4340.00, TP 4220.00
Gold starts the week under pressure after a strong US labor market report. The data strengthened expectations of a higher Fed rate, supporting the US dollar and US Treasury yields. This is a negative factor for gold, as the asset does not generate interest income.
At the same time, the decline may be limited by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and demand for safe-haven assets. However, over the weekly horizon, Fed policy expectations remain the key factor: if the market continues to price in a higher rate, XAU/USD may retain its downward bias.
Trading recommendation: SELL 4310.00, SL 4340.00, TP 4220.00
#SP500: SELL 7400, SL 7460, TP 7220
The US stock market enters the new week after a strong sell-off in the technology sector. Pressure increased after the US employment report: the resilient labor market reduced expectations of a quick easing of Fed policy and made investors more sensitive to upcoming inflation data.
Additional risk for #SP500 comes from rising oil prices and tensions in the Middle East, as these factors may increase inflation expectations and put pressure on corporate costs. Over the weekly horizon, the base-case scenario is a cautious decline in the index while risk appetite remains unstable.
Trading recommendation: SELL 7400, SL 7460, TP 7220
#BRENT: BUY 96.50, SL 93.50, TP 105.50
Brent starts the week higher amid a renewed escalation between Israel and Iran. The market is again assessing risks to oil supplies through the Middle East, including possible disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. This supports prices despite investor caution after strong US economic data.
The OPEC+ decision to increase production quotas from July remains a limiting factor. However, the actual effect may be limited if geopolitical risks continue to disrupt stable exports. This week, the fundamental balance for Brent remains moderately positive.
Trading recommendation: BUY 96.50, SL 93.50, TP 105.50
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