XAUUSD: SELL 4059.00, SL 4090.00, TP 3966.00
Gold starts the week under pressure as higher oil prices reinforce inflation concerns. Rising US Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar are reducing the appeal of the non-yielding metal. Market attention remains focused on upcoming US inflation data and comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding the future direction of monetary policy.
Geopolitical tensions continue to support demand for defensive assets, but this factor is currently being outweighed by expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain a tighter policy stance. If US Treasury yields remain elevated and the dollar stays supported, the baseline scenario allows for a further decline in XAUUSD under the current fundamental backdrop.
Trading idea: SELL 4059.00, SL 4090.00, TP 3966.00
#SP500: SELL 7375, SL 7450, TP 7150
The US equity market begins the new week in a more cautious environment. Higher energy prices are adding to inflation concerns, which may reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive policy stance. For companies, this means persistently high borrowing costs and more moderate expectations for future earnings.
At the same time, the start of the corporate earnings season will provide an important test for elevated market valuations, particularly in the technology sector. If company results and forward guidance fail to meet investor expectations, pressure on the index may persist. Under these conditions, the selling scenario appears more consistent with the current fundamental backdrop.
Trading idea: SELL 7375, SL 7450, TP 7150
#BRENT: BUY 79.30, SL 77.30, TP 85.30
Brent starts the week with strong support from persistent risks to global oil supplies. Market participants are closely monitoring developments affecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, as any disruption could materially tighten the supply balance and support prices despite elevated volatility.
Concerns that higher oil prices may weaken global demand remain a limiting factor. However, the market is currently placing greater emphasis on the risk of supply disruptions. As long as the geopolitical premium remains in place, the baseline scenario allows for further gains in Brent prices.
Trading idea: BUY 79.30, SL 77.30, TP 85.30
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