If you’ve been around algorithmic trading long enough, you’ve definitely seen it:
- “99% win rate”
- “Recovers losses automatically”
- “Never closes in loss”
- “Grid strategy with smart recovery”
- “Martingale with protection”
And to be fair, these systems can look incredible on a backtest or a short live run. But I don’t build trading systems like that — and I don’t trade them either. Not because I’m trying to be “anti-hype”, but because I’ve learned something that most traders only learn after paying for it:
Martingale and grid strategies don’t usually fail slowly. They fail all at once.
Let me break it down properly, and then I’ll explain what I use instead.
The Problem With Martingale
Martingale is simple:
- You take a trade.
- If it loses, you increase the lot size.
- You keep increasing until a win happens.
- One win wipes out the previous losses.
On paper, it sounds like a cheat code. In reality, it’s a debt machine.
Why it’s dangerous
Martingale is not “risk management”. It’s a risk multiplier.
The system assumes the market will eventually come back far enough for you to exit profitably. And in many market conditions, it will…for a while. But the moment the market trends hard against your position, or volatility expands, or spreads widen, the required recovery becomes massive.
The lot sizes balloon fast:
- 0.01 → 0.02 → 0.04 → 0.08 → 0.16 → 0.32 → 0.64…
That’s not “smart money management”. That’s compounding exposure into a moving train.
Eventually you hit:
- margin limits
- max lot limits
- account drawdown limits
- broker restrictions
- psychological limits
And then the account gets wiped in one event. That’s why martingale systems often look stable, right up until they don’t.
The Problem With Grid Systems
A grid is usually built like this:
- price moves up/down
- the EA places multiple positions at fixed intervals
- the basket closes when price returns to the average
This can work in ranging markets. But here’s the truth, markets do not range forever. Every range eventually breaks. And when it breaks, grids do what they’re designed to do: they keep adding exposure in the wrong direction.
A grid strategy can be “profitable” for months, then erase everything in one strong trend day. This is why grid systems often have equity curves that look like staircases, until you zoom out and see the cliff. That is bad.
The Real Issue: They Win Often But Risk Everything
This is the trap. Martingale and grid systems are often optimized to produce:
- frequent small wins
- minimal losing trades
- impressive win rate
But the cost is hidden. They transfer risk into the tail (rare events). And rare events do happen in real markets. One spike. One trend day. One gap. One liquidity shock. And the strategy that “never loses” suddenly loses everything.
So What Do I Use Instead?
I use a completely different philosophy:
I focus on controlled risk, not forced recovery.
That means my system is designed around:
- predefined risk per trade
- hard daily drawdown limits
- open risk exposure caps
- spread protection
- time/session filters
- automatic trade management
- disabling trading when conditions are unstable
Instead of increasing risk after losses, I do the opposite. When conditions get worse, risk reduces. This is what professional risk management looks like:
- reduce exposure when volatility increases
- protect the account first
- stay consistent
- survive long enough for edge to matter
The Difference Between “A Strategy” and “A System”
A lot of traders focus on strategy entries like they are the whole game. But real trading success is rarely about one entry. It’s about the system:
- How much you risk
- When you stop trading
- How you manage trades once they’re open
- How you avoid bad conditions
- How you handle drawdown periods
- How you stay consistent across instruments
A martingale system is basically saying: “I will win by outlasting the market.”
My approach is: “I will trade only when the environment is acceptable, and I will survive when it isn’t.”
Why This Matters If You’re Buying an EA
If you’re shopping for an Expert Advisor, here are a few questions you should always ask:
1) Does it increase lot size after losses?
If yes, understand you’re buying a recovery engine, not a risk-managed system.
2) Does it have a daily loss limit?
Any serious EA should be able to stop trading after a defined drawdown.
3) Does it control open exposure?
If it can open multiple positions, it should have a risk cap.
4) Does it avoid bad trading conditions?
Spread spikes and illiquid hours destroy automated systems.
5) Can it protect profits?
A good system knows when to lock in gains and reduce risk.
These aren’t “extras”. They’re survival tools.
I'll Share My Final Thoughts
I’m not here to tell anyone what to trade. But I am saying this: If your system's profitability depends on doubling down until the market comes back, you’re not trading — you’re hoping. A real trading system should be able to:
- take losses normally
- stay within limits
- avoid unstable conditions
- keep risk consistent
- survive long-term
That’s the difference between a system that looks good for a month, and one designed to last.
Want to See My Approach in Action?
If you’re looking for an MT5 Expert Advisor that avoids martingale/grid logic and focuses on structured risk protection and automation, you can check out my product here: Ashinton Smart Ultra Pro (MetaTrader 5)
