During the past week, trading sentiment was driven by key macroeconomic releases from the United States. Inflation data (CPI and PPI) confirmed the absence of a sharp acceleration in price pressures, allowing markets to maintain a restrained and relatively stable tone. Retail sales and labour market statistics did not provide clear signals for a revision of interest rate expectations, as a result of which investors focused on short-term technical movements and position-taking.
💶 EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair continued its decline from the December highs toward the lower boundary of the medium-term channel at 1.1470-1.1820 and finished the week at 1.1598. In the short term, the market may attempt a corrective rebound toward the 1.1680-1.1700 area. However, the lack of a stable consolidation above this range could once again increase selling pressure and push prices back below the 1.1600 level, into the 1.1540-1.1580 zone. If the bearish momentum develops further, a decline toward the lower boundary of the channel in the 1.1470-1.1510 area cannot be ruled out. At the same time, a confident breakout and consolidation above 1.1700 would cancel the bearish scenario and create potential for a move toward 1.1820.
🟠 BTC/USD
bitcoin made another attempt to consolidate above 95,000, and this time it appears to have been successful. After reaching a peak of 97,975, the price pulled back slightly and is trading around 95,200 on Saturday. The 95,000 level is acting as a short-term pivot point. During the week, BTC/USD may try to retest resistance in the 98,000 area. A breakout above 98,000-100,000 would signal a renewal of bullish momentum. A rejection from this range could lead to a correction toward 94,000-95,000, with a possible further decline to strong support in the 90,000 area.
🛢️ Brent
Amid developments related to Venezuela and Iran, oil prices showed high volatility, briefly surging to 66.35 dollars per barrel. However, after the United States refrained from attacking Iran, the situation eased somewhat, and Brent ended the week at 63.58. The technical structure indicates an attempt by prices to hold above key support levels, allowing the market to retain a bullish bias. Taking advantage of the news background, buyers may attempt another breakout above the 65.00 resistance and then consolidate above 66.50, which would open the way toward 67.80-68.50. At the same time, strong resistance remains overhead. A breakdown below 63.30 would return the market to a bearish scenario with focus on the 61.80-62.15 area. The next strong support is at 61.00.
🥇 XAU/USD
Gold closed Friday at 4,597 dollars per ounce, remaining close to historical highs and confirming continued interest in safe-haven assets. However, XAU/USD is showing signs of short-term fatigue, which makes a corrective move toward 4,550 possible. If this support fails, a decline toward the 4,400-4,460 zone cannot be excluded, with the next strong support at 4,350. A breakout above 4,650 would open the way toward 4,700-4,780.
📊 Conclusion
At the start of the coming week, trading may take place under reduced liquidity conditions due to a public holiday in the United States. In the second half of the week, investors will assess business activity data (PMI) from the US and Europe, as well as comments from Federal Reserve officials, which may adjust expectations regarding the future path of interest rates.
Baseline scenarios: EUR/USD – neutral to bearish while the pair remains below 1.1700, with downside risks increasing if 1.1540 is broken. BTC/USD – moderately bullish while the price holds above 94,000–95,000, with key resistance at 98,000. Brent – moderately bullish while the price remains above 63.30, with the key resistance zone at 66.50. XAU/USD – upside potential remains, with buying on dips while gold holds above 4,550.
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