In the final days of August, the dollar weakened after Jerome Powell’s dovish remarks at Jackson Hole. The Fed Chair hinted at a possible rate cut in September, which sent the Dollar Index (DXY) sharply lower. Over the past week, the index failed to recover those losses and closed at 97.77. Investors continue to expect the Fed to cut rates by at least 25 basis points at its September 16-17 meeting, which supports demand for safe-haven assets.
💶 EUR/USD
The euro ended the week at 1.1685, with fluctuations of around 150 points (1.1574-1.1725). The pair still trades above the support line of the ascending channel established in mid-January. However, the last two months have been largely sideways, with a Pivot Point at 1.1650. The nearest bullish target is 1.1750, followed by a retest of the 2025 high at 1.1830. Strong resistance in this zone may, however, trigger a pullback to 1.1550-1.1580 or even to 1.1450.
₿ BTC/USD
The crypto market faced difficult days. Bitcoin closed the week at 107,787, losing nearly 8% over the five sessions and more than 13% from its August peak of 124,560. Analysts named the main catalyst a whale sale of 24,000 BTC worth 2.7 billion USD, which within minutes triggered a flash crash, cascaded over 900 million USD in long liquidations, and sparked panic across the market. Additional negative factors included over-leverage in the digital asset sector, Fed policy, and the break below the key 112,000 support, which technically points to a bearish reversal. A fall below 104,500 may completely cancel the bullish scenario and send the price toward 90,300. The 111,950-112,000 zone has now turned from support into resistance. Should bulls manage to break through, the next targets will be 117,500 and 123,250.
🛢 Brent
Geopolitical tensions have slightly eased, allowing Brent crude to close the week at 67.84 USD per barrel. Nevertheless, pressure on prices persists due to oversupply, with bearish targets at 66.50 and 64.70. If demand improves, a recovery to 69.00 is possible. A breakout above this resistance would open the way to the 71.65-72.60 range.
🥇 XAU/USD
Gold became the main beneficiary of the week. In the previous forecast, we noted that bulls might attack the upper boundary of the medium-term sideways corridor at 3,255-3,440. That is exactly what happened: on expectations of a Fed rate cut, the primary safe-haven asset closed the week at 3,448 USD per ounce. A firm consolidation above 3,440 would signal a move to new highs in the 3,500-3,525 area. However, a pullback into the 3,330-3,370 zone is also possible. A break below 3,225 would invalidate the bullish scenario and could trigger a decline to 2,855, although this remains unlikely.
🔎 Conclusion
The first week of September promises to be eventful despite the U.S. Labour Day holiday on September 1. Investors’ focus will be on the ISM Manufacturing and Services indices, which reflect the health of key sectors of the U.S. economy, as well as the ADP private employment report and Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls. All of these metrics directly influence the Fed’s policy decisions. In Europe, final PMI readings and retail sales data will be released, providing insights into economic sentiment and consumer activity in the region. Together, these publications are likely to increase volatility across currency, commodity, and crypto markets.
