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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.25 06:52

FOMC will raise rates in March 2016 - Barclays (based on efxnews article)

Barclays Capital made a conclusion that Fed rate hike will be March 2016. Barclays explained that FOMC can raise rates in December 2015 but FOMC FOMC may push rate hike in Mrach because of volatility of the market.

• "Given the uncertainty around the current global outlook, the timing of the rate hike seems more uncertain than usual. Should this episode of financial market volatility prove transitory, the FOMC could raise rates in December. On the other hand, if the volatility proves durable or reveals greater than expected weakness in global activity, the FOMC may push the first rate hike beyond March."
• "We see a delay past mid-2016 as a relatively low probability at this point given our views on US labor markets. The US has proven durable to shocks emanating from emerging markets in the past, and we believe the current bout of uncertainty to be less pronounced than the successive shocks from developed economies that rocked global markets in 2008, 2010, and 2010."

By the way, some analytics note that changing the date for Fed rate hike will increase the market uncertainty and volatility will be increased.