Mastering XAUUSD Daily: What Smart Traders Are Watching Today, Feburary 03,2026
“Consistency in execution matters more than consistency in results.”
We'll examine what the chart actually conveys today, including where buyers and sellers are active, which levels are crucial, and how momentum is shifting in real time.
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XAUUSD Technical Analysis: February 3, 2026 | H1 & M15 Timeframe Breakdown
Market Overview
Gold (XAUUSD) is showing remarkable resilience on February 3, 2026, trading around $4,826 per ounce after recovering from a dramatic selloff that saw prices plummet nearly 10% during Asian trading sessions earlier in the week. The precious metal has rebounded strongly, climbing approximately 3.56% from the previous day's close, demonstrating the robust demand that continues to underpin this market.
Current Market Context
The recent volatility was triggered by President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, a hawkish choice that raised concerns about tighter monetary policy ahead. Despite this turbulence, gold maintains its appeal as a safe-haven asset, supported by strong central bank purchases and growing fiscal concerns globally.
Key Price Levels (February 3, 2026):
- Current Price: $4,826.03
- Daily Range: $4,537.15 - $4,621.27
- Opening Price: $4,614.90
- Previous Close: $4,615.97
H1 Timeframe Analysis: The Bigger Picture
Market Structure & Trend
On the hourly (H1) chart, XAUUSD is demonstrating a critical transition phase. After experiencing significant selling pressure that pushed prices below $4,600, gold has entered a recovery mode, reclaiming the psychologically important $4,700 level and now testing resistance near $4,826.
H1 Bias: Neutral to Bullish
The market structure suggests we're witnessing accumulation rather than distribution. Buyers are stepping in at higher lows, indicating that institutional players view current levels as attractive entry points despite recent volatility.
Technical Indicators on H1
Moving Averages:
- 21-day SMA: Acting as immediate dynamic support around $4,700
- 50-day SMA: Positioned at $4,490.20 (Strong Support)
- 100-day SMA: Located at $4,236.17 (Major Support)
- 200-day SMA: Anchored at $3,795.11 (Long-term trend support)
The fact that price remains above all major moving averages confirms the broader bullish bias remains intact. The upward-sloping moving averages reinforce that the long-term trend continues to favor buyers.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Current reading: 54.36 (Neutral to Slightly Bullish)
After bouncing from oversold territory (RSI hit 27 during the selloff), the RSI recovery above 50 signals improving bullish momentum. This suggests the worst of the correction may be behind us, with buyers regaining control.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD shows mixed signals with a reading of 210.62, technically suggesting caution. However, the indicator is showing signs of turning positive on lower timeframes, indicating a potential momentum shift is emerging.
ADX (Average Directional Index): 39.50 This reading confirms that a strong trend is present, though the recent volatility has created some uncertainty about its immediate direction.
Key Support and Resistance Levels (H1)
Immediate Resistance:
- $4,826 - $4,840: Current consolidation zone and order block
- $4,881.57: Previous swing high
- $5,000: Major psychological resistance
Support Zones:
- $4,760 - $4,780: Immediate support cluster
- $4,701.55: Critical support level
- $4,645.91: Secondary support
- $4,509.74 - $4,576.74: Major demand zone
H1 Chart Patterns
A Falling Three Methods pattern has formed within the $4,881.57–$4,821.84 range, which typically indicates strengthening bearish momentum in the short term. However, the strong recovery bounce suggests buyers are defending lower levels aggressively.
The market is trading within an ascending channel on the broader timeframe, with price consistently respecting both upper and lower boundaries. Each pullback has been controlled, and buyers continue to step in at higher levels—a textbook bullish structure.
M15 Timeframe Analysis: Precision Entry Points
Intraday Price Action
On the 15-minute (M15) chart, price action becomes more directional and purposeful. This timeframe is ideal for timing precise entries after identifying the broader trend on H1.
M15 Bias: Direction-dependent on H1 confirmation
The M15 chart shows gold has broken out of a multi-day descending parallel channel, signaling a potential shift in short-term momentum from bearish to bullish.
M15 Technical Setup
SMC (Smart Money Concepts) Analysis:
The market has recently filled into an Order Block (OB) zone around $4,830-$4,840. This area represents a high-probability supply zone where institutional sellers may position themselves if bearish momentum returns. However, if price holds above this level with bullish confirmation, it could serve as a launchpad for the next leg higher.
Fair Value Gaps (FVG): Multiple FVGs exist below current price action in the $4,700-$4,750 range. These gaps often act as magnets for price, providing potential retracement targets before continuation.
M15 Key Levels for Intraday Trading
Micro Resistance:
- $4,829.80: Immediate pivot resistance
- $4,860-$4,870: Invalidation level for short setups
Micro Support:
- $4,780-$4,750: Near-term support cluster
- $4,700-$4,680: Deeper FVG fill zone
- $4,622.80: Critical intraday support
M15 Trading Opportunities
Bullish Scenario (Higher Probability):
- Entry: On pullback to $4,780-$4,800 with bullish confirmation (hammer, engulfing candle, or volume spike)
- Target 1: $4,860
- Target 2: $4,926
- Stop Loss: Below $4,750
Bearish Scenario (Counter-trend):
- Entry: Rejection at $4,840-$4,860 order block with bearish confirmation
- Target 1: $4,780
- Target 2: $4,700-$4,680
- Stop Loss: Above $4,870
Multi-Timeframe Synthesis: H1 + M15
The Trading Edge
The most profitable approach combines H1 directional bias with M15 execution precision. Here's how:
- Identify H1 trend direction: Currently transitioning from neutral to bullish
- Wait for M15 confirmation: Look for price to retest demand zones with bullish candle patterns
- Execute on M15: Enter on pullbacks, not breakouts, to maximize reward-to-risk ratio
Volume and Market Sentiment
VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) is currently above market price on the H1, suggesting some distribution at higher levels. However, this should normalize as price consolidates and builds a base for the next move.
MFI (Money Flow Index) shows liquidity outflow during the recent decline, but this is stabilizing as institutional buyers return to the market.
Fundamental Catalysts to Watch
While technical analysis provides entry and exit signals, traders must remain aware of fundamental drivers:
This Week's Economic Calendar:
- February 3: JOLTS Job Openings Data
- February 4: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Services PMI
- February 5: Initial Jobless Claims
- February 6: Unemployment Report, University of Michigan Inflation Expectations
Monetary Policy Outlook: According to CME Group data, there's only a 14.8% probability of an interest rate cut in March, with 85.2% expecting rates to remain at 3.50-3.75%. This hawkish stance could limit gold's upside in the short term, but geopolitical tensions and fiscal concerns continue to support demand.
Technical Indicators Summary
Overall Signal: BUY (with caution)
| Indicator | H1 Timeframe | M15 Timeframe | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 54.36 | Neutral-Bullish | Neutral to Buy |
| MACD | Turning Positive | Bullish Divergence | Buy |
| Moving Averages | Above all SMAs | Above 50-period MA | Strong Buy |
| ADX | 39.50 | Strong Trend | Neutral |
| Price Action | Ascending Channel | Breakout Structure | Buy |
| Overall | BUY | BUY (on pullback) | BUY |
Trading Strategy for February 3, 2026
Conservative Approach
- Wait for confirmation: Let price close above $4,840 on H1 before entering long positions
- Target: $4,926 - $5,000
- Stop Loss: Below $4,750
Aggressive Approach (Higher Risk)
- Buy the dip: Enter on M15 pullbacks to $4,780-$4,800 support zone
- Target: $4,860 - $4,926
- Stop Loss: Below $4,750
Risk Management
- Position Size: Risk no more than 1-2% of capital per trade
- Reward-to-Risk Ratio: Minimum 2:1
- Avoid: Trading during high-impact news releases without clear directional bias
Market Outlook: What's Next for Gold?
Short-Term (1-5 Days)
Gold is likely to consolidate between $4,700 and $4,900 as it digests recent volatility. Expect choppy price action but with a bullish bias as long as price holds above the 21-day SMA.
Medium-Term (1-4 Weeks)
The bullish scenario points to growth toward $5,200-$5,400 if gold can reclaim and hold above $4,900. The bearish scenario suggests a potential decline to $4,400-$4,500 if hawkish Fed rhetoric intensifies.
Long-Term (2026 Outlook)
Analysts forecast gold could reach $7,615-$8,491 by year-end 2026, with some projections as high as $11,150. The precious metal remains supported by:
- Ongoing geopolitical tensions
- Central bank accumulation (850 tonnes expected in 2026)
- "Debasement trade" as investors rotate from currencies to hard assets
- Concerns over Federal Reserve independence
Final Thoughts
XAUUSD presents a compelling technical setup on both H1 and M15 timeframes as of February 3, 2026. The recovery from recent lows demonstrates strong underlying demand, while the technical structure remains bullish as long as key support levels hold.
Key Takeaways:
- Gold has successfully rebounded from a sharp selloff, reclaiming $4,700+
- H1 timeframe shows bullish structure with all major MAs providing support
- M15 offers precise entry opportunities on pullbacks to demand zones
- Combine higher timeframe bias with lower timeframe execution for best results
- Stay alert to Fed speeches and economic data that could drive volatility
Trade with discipline, manage risk religiously, and let the charts guide you—not emotions.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Gold trading involves significant risk, and you should never risk more than you can afford to lose. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Published: February 3, 2026
Timeframes Analyzed: H1 (1-Hour), M15 (15-Minute)
Asset: XAUUSD (Gold Spot vs US Dollar)
