Top 5 High-Impact Economic Events This Week (February 2–6, 2026)

Financial markets brace for a week of pivotal data releases and central bank decisions that could redefine monetary policy trajectories across major economies. With inflation trends under scrutiny and labor markets signaling shifting dynamics, volatility is expected to spike around five key events. Below are the highest-impact releases in chronological order (all times UTC).

1. Eurozone CPI (Year-over-Year) – Tuesday, February 3 at 10:00 UTC

This inflation print lands just two days before the ECB's policy decision and serves as a critical input for Governing Council deliberations. The slight overshoot of the 2.0% target—combined with core CPI holding steady at 2.3%—suggests persistent underlying price pressures. EUR pairs may experience sharp intraday swings as traders recalibrate expectations for the pace of future rate cuts. Bond markets will also react sensitively, with German bund yields likely to reprice based on the data's implications for ECB hawkishness.

2. Bank of England Interest Rate Decision & Monetary Policy Report – Thursday, February 5 at 12:00 UTC

The current rate is 3.75
The BoE's decision to hold rates steady amid a split vote signals ongoing internal debate about the timing of easing. The accompanying Monetary Policy Report and updated economic projections will be scrutinized for clues on whether the committee views current inflation dynamics as transitory or structural. GBP volatility typically spikes 30–60 minutes post-release, especially if guidance diverges from market expectations of a March cut. Sterling crosses and UK gilt yields will be primary transmission channels for market reactions.

3. ECB Interest Rate Decision – Thursday, February 5 at 13:15 UTC

Main Refinancing Rate Held at 2.15%
Following the BoE's move, the ECB's decision carries amplified significance as markets assess divergence risks within G10 central banks. While rates were unchanged as widely expected, the accompanying statement's tone on inflation persistence and growth risks will drive EUR sentiment. Any subtle shift in language regarding the "next meeting" or "coming months" could trigger outsized moves in EUR/USD and European equity indices. The decision sets the stage for Lagarde's press conference 30 minutes later.

4. ECB Press Conference with President Christine Lagarde – Thursday, February 5 at 13:45 UTC

Lagarde's post-decision press conference often generates more market movement than the rate decision itself. Traders will listen closely for forward guidance on the timing of the first rate cut, assessment of wage growth pressures, and commentary on geopolitical risks. Historical analysis shows EUR volatility frequently doubles during Lagarde's Q&A sessions compared to the initial statement release. Cross-asset correlations may intensify, with European stocks and sovereign bonds moving in tandem with currency flows.

5. U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate & Average Hourly Earnings – Friday, February 6 at 13:30 UTC

NFP: 89K (vs 50K forecast) | Unemployment: 4.2% (vs 4.4%) | AHE m/m: 0.3%
The triple release of U.S. labor data represents the week's volatility apex. The significant NFP beat combined with a falling unemployment rate suggests labor market resilience despite elevated rates—a scenario that could delay Fed easing expectations. Crucially, stable wage growth (0.3% m/m) may alleviate inflation concerns, creating a complex narrative for markets. USD typically experiences its highest weekly volatility during this release, with Treasury yields and equity futures reacting within seconds. Risk assets often see exaggerated moves as algorithmic traders process the data triad simultaneously.

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