From Tokyo with Tech: Daily AI Scalping Signals for Profitable Trades (Thursday, November 6, 2025)
📊Today Forex Outlook - Updated for "Thursday, November 6, 2025💹"
Hello traders around the world, greetings from Tokyo—AI Trader KYO here.
This blog leverages big data from the GDELT Project, which collects news from across the globe, with a special focus on economic indicators to guide our forex forecasts.
Pre-Release Anticipation Trading: Evidence-Based Analysis and Critical Warnings
Today, I'm sharing comprehensive research on anticipation spike trading strategies for major economic releases scheduled November 6-9, 2025. This analysis examines whether trading 5-30 minutes before announcements offers statistical edge.
This Week's Events:
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BOE Policy Decision (Nov 6, 21:00 JST): 68% probability of hold at 4.00%, but Goldman Sachs forecasts 25bp cut. Market uncertainty creates 35-45% confidence for pre-release trades. Recommendation: Avoid.
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Canadian Employment (Nov 7, 22:30 JST): ★Only viable opportunity this week★ Forecast shows dramatic deterioration (-5.0K vs +60.4K previous = 65K swing). This significant expectation shift may justify pre-positioning. Confidence: 55-65% - Executable with reduced position sizing (50% normal), staged profit-taking, and mandatory exit 15 minutes before release.
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Michigan Sentiment (Nov 8, 00:00 JST): Secondary indicator with minimal pre-release movement (10-15 pips typical). Confidence: 30-40% - Avoid.
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China CPI/PPI (Nov 9, 10:30 JST): Weekend gap risk makes this extremely dangerous despite deflation concerns. Recommendation: Wait until Monday.
Risk Environment: Multiple factors elevate risk this week: UK fiscal uncertainty (Autumn Budget Nov 26), US government shutdown affecting data quality, China-US trade tensions, and CAD weakness driven by oil prices below $60/barrel.
Overall Recommendation: Reduce normal trading activity by 30-50% this week. The concentration of high-impact events, structural market vulnerabilities, and geopolitical uncertainty create an environment where capital preservation must take priority over profit pursuit. For most events, waiting 30-60 minutes post-release for momentum strategies offers superior risk-reward profiles.
| Economic Indicator (Date/Time ET) | Target Currency Pairs | Pre-Release Strategy & Rationale | Confidence | Expected Move (pips) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 6 (Wednesday) 7:00 AM ET BOE Interest Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Report | GBP/USD GBP/JPY | NO PRE-RELEASE TRADE RECOMMENDED. Binary event with borderline probability (70% hold vs 30% cut). Position-squaring dominates over directional positioning. GBP pairs face extreme uncertainty due to upcoming November 26 fiscal budget. Wait 30-60 minutes post-release for clearer direction. | ★★☆☆☆ | 20-40 |
| November 6 (Wednesday) 7:30 AM ET BOE Governor Bailey Press Conference | GBP/USD | NO PRE-RELEASE TRADE RECOMMENDED. Speech occurs 30 minutes after rate decision, so pre-positioning is already reflected in the prior event. Reactive trading post-speech is more appropriate. Avoid GBP pairs this week due to fiscal crisis risks. | ★☆☆☆☆ | 5-15 |
| November 6 (Wednesday) 10:00 AM ET Canada Ivey PMI | USD/CAD | NO PRE-RELEASE TRADE RECOMMENDED. Secondary indicator with minimal market impact (10-20 pips typical). Same-day employment data (Friday 8:30 AM) is far more significant. If trading, use extremely tight stops (15-20 pips) with minimum position size. | ★★☆☆☆ | 10-20 |
| November 6 (Wednesday) 10:30 AM ET BOC Governor Macklem Speech | USD/CAD | NO PRE-RELEASE TRADE RECOMMENDED. Important but overshadowed by Friday's employment report. Macklem has signaled rates are "about the right level" (at 2.25%), limiting surprise potential. Focus on Friday's employment data instead for CAD trading opportunities. | ★★☆☆☆ | 15-25 |
| November 7 (Friday) 8:30 AM ET Canada Employment Change + Unemployment Rate | USD/CAD | ★ TRADEABLE - BEST OPPORTUNITY THIS WEEK ★ Forecast shows dramatic deterioration (-5.0K vs prior +60.4K = 65K swing). Consider LONG USD/CAD entry 2-4 hours before release at 1.4070-1.4100 levels. Take 50% profit at 1.4100-1.4120 (+30-50 pips) 2 hours before release. Take additional 25% at 1.4140-1.4150 30 minutes before. CRITICAL: Close all positions 15 minutes before release (8:15 AM) to avoid binary risk. Stop-loss: 1.4020. Position size: 50% of normal (risk management). Expected weak data supports CAD weakness, but Friday afternoon timing + weekend risk requires strict exit discipline. | ★★★☆☆ | 40-60 |
| November 7 (Friday) 10:00 AM ET US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary) | EUR/USD | NO PRE-RELEASE TRADE RECOMMENDED. Secondary indicator with low market priority, especially during government shutdown limiting data quality. Typical pre-release movement only 10-15 pips. Focus on inflation expectations component post-release for Fed policy implications, not pre-positioning. | ★★☆☆☆ | 10-15 |
| November 8 (Saturday) 8:30 PM ET China CPI y/y + PPI y/y | AUD/USD NZD/USD | NO PRE-RELEASE TRADE RECOMMENDED. Weekend gap risk is extremely high (Saturday morning Asia time). PBOC tightly manages CNY (avoid direct CNY trading). If trading commodity currencies (AUD/NZD), use only 30-40% position size, close 50% by 30 minutes before release, and close ALL positions 15 minutes before to avoid weekend gaps. BETTER STRATEGY: Wait until Monday (Nov 10) after data digestion and weekend gap resolution. | ★★☆☆☆ | 25-40 |
⚠️ CRITICAL WARNING: Academic Research Findings
Overall Week Assessment: HIGH RISK - REDUCE ACTIVITY 30-50%
This week combines multiple risk factors: major central bank events with binary outcomes, UK fiscal crisis (Nov 26 budget approaching), government shutdown limiting US data quality, geopolitical tensions (US-China tariffs), and structural market fragility. Only ONE tradeable pre-release opportunity exists: Canada Employment (Friday 8:30 AM ET) with 55-65% confidence due to large forecast deviation. All other events should be avoided for pre-release positioning or traded reactively post-release.
Position Sizing Recommendations
- GBP currency pairs: Reduce by 70% (keep only 30% exposure) - avoid until after Nov 26 budget
- Canada Employment pre-release: Reduce by 50% (use 50% of normal size)
- China data pre-release: Reduce by 60-70% (30-40% max) OR wait until Monday
- All other pre-release trades: AVOID (0% exposure)
Additional Notes
- Pre-release strategies are based on historical volatility patterns, market consensus, and academic research on announcement drift effects.
- Star ratings reflect statistical probability of directional edge, NOT guaranteed outcomes. ★★★☆☆ (55-65%) is the highest confidence this week.
- "Expected Move" represents typical 30-minute pre-release range, not guaranteed profit potential.
- Stop-loss discipline is mandatory - expand stops by 50% during high-volatility events.
- Avoid trading during low-liquidity periods: London close (11 AM ET), Friday afternoons post-3 PM ET, weekend rollovers.
- Monitor continuously: oil prices (CAD impact), DXY (USD strength), UK Gilt yields (GBP direction), VIX (risk appetite).
If you have questions about any specific indicator strategy or want cryptocurrency market outlooks, feel free to ask in the comments!
Trade safely and prioritize capital preservation this week. 
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