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How the market reacts to economic releases is generally determined by two factors:
- How important the market considers a particular release to be.
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How close to market estimates the number comes in at.
How important the market considers a particular economic release to be, is something that changes over time depending on what is happening from a US Dollar fundamentals standpoint. If there are worries that the economy is going into recession, then the market is going to be extra sensitive to any numbers, such as non farm payrolls and consumer spending, which may provide early warning signs that this is the case.
The most market moving indicators, in order of importance are:
- Non Farm Payrolls
- FOMC Releases
- Retail Sales
- ISM Manufacturing
- Inflation
- Producer Price Index
- The Trade Balance
- Existing Home Sales
- Foreign Purchases of US Treasuries (TIC Data)
